NASCAR DFS Picks: Bank Of America ROVAL 400 Playbook, 10/13 - Charlotte Motor Speedway

Sunday brings with it the Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte Motor Speedway and an elimination race. The NASCAR playoffs are getting ready to narrow down to the Round of 8 and so a great showing at the Roval is a must at this point. What can we expect from the racing at the Roval on Sunday? How will the new Charlotte Roval layout change the race? What are the race trends we can look for when building lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel? All of this plus the top NASCAR DFS picks for the Charlotte Roval and the Bank of America ROVAL 400 below!

New Charlotte Roval Layout

After running the same layout for the first 6 Bank of America ROVAL 400s, a change, or two, is coming. As you can see in the video below, Turn 7 is a big change to the infield portion of the track, and as I alluded to on the podcast, it more resembles Turn 11 (the hairpin) at Sonoma now, That should bring with more chaos and hopefully some passing chances as one driver tries to out-brake the other. The other change to the track, which may have a bigger impact on the race, is the front stretch chicane. It’s gotten a reshape and it’s now much more angular and tight. During the race it’ll be a slower set of corners for sure, but the bigger change is to restarts as the field will get more stratified heading into Turn 1.

Charlotte Motor Speedway Trends

When we think of road courses, what immediately comes to mind? Winners coming from the front of the pack right? Well, not necessarily here. In the 6 races at the Charlotte Roval, winners have come from P2 to P19 but most were P8 and further back. Chaos plays a big role in that difference compared to other road courses. Across the last 6 races here there was an average of 8 cautions between stage breaks and incidents.

As far as dominator points at the Roval, we’ve yet to see a driver lead 50 laps in any race here. For fastest laps, there’s generally a couple of drivers to get the bulk of them with the rest spread out based on pit strategy and fresh tires. The last two races here have also seen nearly every lap led by a driver starting inside the top-10 with 103 and 107 laps led respectively. The last part that fits a road course is that just over a third of the top-10 finishers started P12 or worse. So while moving up into the top-20 is common, cracking the top-10 usually requires starting P12 or better.

NASCAR DraftKings Scoring Trends

The following chart is based on the last 5 Roval races. It shows the average points scored by starting spot regardless of driver, car, team, manufacturer, or reason for that spot. It’s designed to show the DraftKings strategy in play for NASCAR DFS on the Charlotte Roval. It’s not a hard and fast rule, but more of a strong trend for how races play out.

There is a bit of front loading that’s happening with builds as half of the top-10 scorers on DraftKings starting in the top-10 starting spots here. That, unlike what we see above, fits road courses. However, the rest of the chart shows that a bit of chaos is introduced to the back 3/4 of the field and scoring. There will be a lot of positions gained and lost on restarts and the funneling into Turn 1, the Heartburn Turn.

NASCAR FanDuel Scoring Trends

The following chart is based on the last 5 Roval races. It shows the average points scored by starting spot regardless of driver, car, team, manufacturer, or reason for that spot. It’s designed to show the FanDuel strategy in play for NASCAR DFS on the Charlotte Roval. It’s not a hard and fast rule, but more of a strong trend for how races play out.

Much like the DK chart, the FanDuel chart shows a front loaded leaning. Eight of the top-10 scoring positions start in the top-16 on FanDuel. That’s mainly due to the fact that those spots have the best chance of finishing highly and that’s the highest weight of the FanDuel score this week. There is still high scoring spots further back as 5 more of the top-20 scoring spots start P21 or further back.

Bank of America ROVAL 400 DFS - Practice & Qualifying Results

The following chart shows the practice ranks and qualifying order from Saturday’s sessions. It’s designed to show who may have run better in one than the other and who appears to have long run speed. There were 2 20-minute practices for each Group A and B before qualifying. I’ve based the chart on the combined speeds between the two.

NASCAR DFS Picks & Strategy: 2024 Bank of America ROVAL 400

So knowing everything we know now, what is the strategy we’re using to build lineups? Well, the first thing we’re doing is picking 2-3 laps led dominators to build around. We’ve seen the 109 lap races be split between 2-3 dominators the whole 6-race span here. That doesn’t mean one driver is leading 50+ and the second is out front for another 40 or so. It means we’re looking for 2-3 drivers who can lead between 25-40 laps each and the rest will be split by another couple of drivers on pit cycles. The second things we’re doing is trying to nail down the drivers we feel the best about threatening for top-10 finishes. Finishing position is a huge part of scoring at road races so maximizing that is huge. It’s not necessarily about the drivers who can provide 5x or 6x value, but those who can get to ~35 points or so. That gives us the best chance to be atop contest standings.

Based on the pricing this week and how the field has shook out, the mid-tier is where the builds will live or die. Getting creative with the builds and saving some money will also allow you to differentiate yourself from the rest of the builds in the contests. There are plenty of interesting budget tier drivers as well to get different too.

Top Bank of America ROVAL 400 DFS Picks

Below are the top drivers I like for the NASCAR DFS for the Bank of America ROVAL 400 at Charlotte. They were picked based on practice and qualifying speed along with track history and road race history. Below in the full driver pool I’ve listed other drivers to build around as well who are solid plays but not the top of the top options.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Top-Tier Drivers

Shane Van Gisbergen

To be clear, I wasn’t going to put him in the playbook until qualifying. SVG landed on the pole holding off Reddick but .04 seconds. Van Gisbergen being on the pole should give him the chance to lead a chunk of laps early in the race. In 4 of the last 5 races here, the pole sitter has led 23 or more laps. Expect him to lead the first stage and then have to work his way back through the field after stage break pit stops. There is clearly risk here as the pole sitter typically moves back several spots here and the negative PD will take away from the laps led points.

A.J. Allmendinger

Quite simply put, this is his best track. He’s raced 4 times here in the Xfinity series and won all four. He’s raced 4 times in the Cup series and has a win and 3 P7 or better finishes. The lone bad finish (P38) happened from a blown engine when he was running P5. Allmendinger is also in the Xfinity race which means he’s one of the few drivers getting double track time which is sure to help with the new layout. Allmendinger will be a popular play, but we’ll take the savings over SVG and gain a better history.

Tyler Reddick

In his 4 races here, Reddick has the 2nd best average finish of 7.0 even without a win. Reddick has posted that average finish with 3 P8 or better finishes, which he’s also pulled off this year in 4 road races. Reddick has been known to win road races in the Next Gen era and he should be a threat to do that again on Sunday at a track and discipline he’s been good at this year and in the past.

Chris Buescher

If we just look at the stats around Buescher and road racing, the only thing that really stands out is his average finishes. Over the road races this year, Buescher has the best average finish at 8.0. Over the last 3 Roval races Buescher is tied for the second best mark at 5.3 (P3, P6, P7). The speed was mid-pack for the most part at practice and the starting spot is that too. We are banking on Buescher doing what he’s done before. The RFK driver has an average starting spot of 21.0 this year and 19.0 in the last 3 Roval races while still posting those finishes.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Mid-Tier Drivers

Christopher Bell

A former Roval race winner, Bell has proven himself to be quite a threat on road courses to not only run well but also win. We’re not needing him to win this race, but finishing top-5 should provide enough points to make him worth the play. Bell will start P12 but practice speed was better than that. The other thing that’s appealing about Bell is that he’s likely not hunting stage points but rather a win given his playoff standing and so the 20-car team will build strategy around the end of the race and not the middle.

Ty Gibbs

Had it not been for spinning himself out and going into the wall at Sonoma, we could be looking at 3 top-5 finishes for Gibbs in 4 road races this year. That combined with a P4 at the Roval last year make him interesting. The speed in the 54-car isn’t as elite this week as we’ve seen, but his skill on road courses is clear. We’ll focus on his ability to improve as the race goes on, and his 11.3 average running position in 2 Roval Cup races as evidence that there’s some PD here for the young JGR driver.

Kyle Busch

I know we’ve been talking about RCR for a while now but Busch’s record stands out on road courses and specifically here. He’s finished P4, P3, and P3 at the last 3 Roval races. On top of that he’s run P9 twice at road races this year (early in the season) and should’ve had another one at Sonoma. While he’s not likely to win, he’s likely to be fighting for another top-5 and certainly top-10 which is enough in the way of finish points to bring value.

Alex Bowman

Opening the “why is he this cheap?” camp, Bowman has been masterful at the Roval. In his 5 races at the Charlotte road course, he’s finished in the top-10 every time. While he’s not dominating races based on laps led and fastest laps, Bowman is still in the top-5 in terms of DraftKings scoring per race and the 2nd best FanDuel scorers. He’s also got a win this year at the Chicago road course and is tied for the 2nd best average finish this year in the 4 road races.

Ryan Blaney

The 2nd in the “why is he this cheap?” camp. The history at the Roval has been spectacular including a win (albeit thanks to Truex and Jimmie Johnson wrecking). He has 5 P12 or better finishes in 6 races here and 3 P12 or better finishes in 4 road races his year. So we have a driver with a good track history and good season history yet is squarely in the mid-tier? Make it make sense please. 

Austin Cindric

He’s shown up this week like a man on a mission… a mission to make the Round of 8. The speed in practice was at times some of the best in the field and that coupled with his experience at this discipline could make him a real threat to post a second win this season. Sure, the road courses have only been so-so for him for a little while now, but this is inarguably the best car he’s had at them in that span.

Joey Logano

The 3rd driver in the “why is he this cheap?” camp. I get he’s not been a great, or even good, road racer this year to be sure as his best finish is P11 at COTA. However, when it comes to the Roval, Logano has been one of the better drivers in the field. His 8.7 average finish is 4th best in the field and his 5 top-10s in the 6 races here is tied for the most as well. While he’s not exactly dominating in the races with just a handful of laps led on average, the good finishes and holding his spot provide value; especially at this price. Oh yeah, one other thing for Logano… he’s below the cutoff and needs at least a very good finish here to save his championship chances.

NASCAR DFS Picks: Value Drivers

Todd Gilliland

Gilliland has 3 P16 or better finishes at road courses this year getting him to an average finish of 15.0. I know, we’re probably sick of seeing Gilliland in the playbook but he’s been paying off when we’ve played him down the stretch. Gilliland moved up 9 spots in the race here a year ago for a P23 finish. That’s more than enough upside in PD and solid finishes to make him a valuable budget play once more.

Carson Hocevar

The rookie has been quite impressive in the second-half of the 2024 NASCAR season. When he’s had speed, he’s been able to hold his spot well. And when Hocevar hasn’t had speed at practice, he’s found crafty ways to move up a chunk of spots. On road courses, Hocevar has been skilled, as he showed in Truck Series races too. Sunday should be no different as he flashed speed just outside the top-10 at practice before qualifying P20.

Austin Dillon

This one is a bit out of left field to be honest but there’s some sneaky stats in his favor. Over the last 3 Roval races, Dillon ranks in the top-10 of average finish, average running position, and driver rating. A 10th place finish is bookended by a P15 and P14 run. While the PD isn’t great in that span (1.7 spots a race) the solid finish points and consistency are nice to find in this range. While we usually don’t mention 5x value at a road course, he has averaged 32.6 DK pts a race in that span which is 5x at his price this week.

Ryan Preece

Thought of as a short track racer, Preece’s elbows-out style of racing works well at road courses too. This year he’s posted the 8th best PD mark in the field. That has carried over from previous runs at the Roval where Preece’s 9.5 average PD mark is 2nd best in the field in the last 3 Roval races. The 2 top-20 finishes and at least 7 spots of PD each race will do that. In the 2 road races this season in which he’s posted top-20s, he’s moved up 12 spots each time. It’s always nice to have a PD play in your budget drivers and Preece fits that bill.

Zane Smith

Smith has run the Roval just once in the Cup series and finished P30. However, he’s run 4 road races this season and is averaging the best PD in the field in them. Smith has nabbed 4 top-20 finishes while starting inside the top-20 just once and that’s amounted to the 2nd best average point total on DraftKings and FanDuel. He was also a great road racer in the Truck series as well. Smith should be a lower played budget option to get leverage on the field or sneak another higher-priced driver in a lineup.

NASCAR DFS Optimizer & Lineup Picks This Week

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