NASCAR DFS Grant Park 220 Playbook: Can Denny Hamlin Dominate From Pole

Larson seems to think there are passing chances on the track. I guess we’ll put that, and him, to the test if we play him. Starting P7 after running the second-best overall lap average and third-best 5-lap average indicates he should have a car capable of finding those passing zones. The issue here is that we need him to finish in the top-3 and lead laps or rack up fastest laps. Can he do that? Sure, he’s Kyle Larson, but will he? That’s the real crux of the question.

Fresh off of a win at the last road course the Cup series raced at, he appeared to get faster the longer he was on the track on Saturday. He’ll be starting P11 but missed out on the top 10 but fractions of a second in qualifying. The lap averages are there, the long speed is there, and the PD is there to make him a solid option across the board but it might be tough to lead a ton of laps unless he catches a break or two.

The current speed demon on road courses is starting P2 on Sunday. While that starting spot came a bit out of nowhere, he did talk after qualifying about how conservatively he took the practice just trying to make it through with car intact. It worked for sure. So don’t read too much into his slower practice times as he’ll be inside the top-five much of the day and a certain contender to win. Let’s not forget that it’s his setup that Denny Hamlin is using to beat him to the pole now.

It’s a road course which makes Allmendinger a shoe in for the playbook. The practice speed certainly wasn’t great and is a concern to be sure, not to mention that he looked like he was hustling the car around the track more than some of his counterparts. He is starting P10 which could be advantageous if there really is less passing than the drivers expect and given his road racing experience. However, there is more risk attached to him at this price tag than normal for a track like this.

Busch has finished P2 at both road races this year in the 8-car. That’s a great start with a new team and new manufacturer for a four-time road course winner. The issue is that that same speed hasn’t fully shown up yet in Chicago. He’s starting mid-pack which does give him PD upside if the speed does arrive, however, if it doesn’t it’s just another grumpy Sunday for Busch as he hangs around the top-15 but not much better.

Have the last two road races for Bell jaded us from how good he’s been at this discipline? Bell has four top-10s in the last eight road races and is starting P4 on Sunday, the same place he started in Sonoma. We don’t really want to harp on “5x value” at a road course but he will definitely need to finish in the top-five with a handful of dominator points for us to feel comfortable with the return given the starting spot.

When are we going to start trusting Suarez like a true road racer? He’s won on them before and been one of the most consistent drivers on them in the Gen 7 car. Suarez has logged 50-percent or better top-10 laps rate in half of the eight such races and one more with 40-percent. He’ll be starting P5 and the speed in the 99-car should be trusted at this point to at least hang there if not move up a spot or two.

Not including the two obvious choices, Chase Elliott and Tyler Reddick, Buescher ranks third in average Driver Rating over the last eight road races and has the best average finish overall in that span. Pretty good for a guy consistently flying under the radar. He’ll start P15 on Sunday with speed in the car a bit better than that and a driving style that pays dividends on road courses. Buescher already moved up at COTA and Sonoma so why not Chicago for good measure?

It’s a new course right? It’s Logano right? I’m sorry have you two met? Logano is strictly a narrative play given how well he’s done at inaugural races in the Next Gen car having won the Clash at the Coliseum, Bristol Dirt, Gateway, new Atlanta… You get the picture. Would I like more speed in the 22-car? Sure, but starting P9 is a great spot to sit and work strategy which the 22-team is great at. He should be a factor for a top-five coming down the stretch.

Can we get a more accomplished, cheaper, pole-sitter? Hamlin is on the pole for the second-straight road race and last time he racked up 33 laps led and 14 fastest laps before having issues and hitting a wall we’ve not seen hit at Sonoma in a while. Could he be in for a similar fate at the tight Chicago street circuit? Sure, it’s always a possibility but in the meantime, he should be leading a bunch of laps. It’s not just that he’s on the pole, it’s that he ran the best 5- and 10-lap averages in practice and was neck-and-neck with some F1 and Supercar champions as well.

Bowman isn’t sexy but not everyone in the lineup has to be sexy plays. He’s consistent and has started and finished about the same spots this year. For Sunday he’ll roll off P13 with a tad more speed than that shown at practice. If he can sneak into the top-10 we’ve got value from him and he works well paired with just about anyone in the lineup.

The youngster has been making copious laps on this circuit on the sim and apparently, according to industry folks, has been crushing the practice. He also reportedly beat the field in a drivers-only iRacing event on the simulated track as well. For whatever that’s worth, he showed up with good speed and is already an accomplished road racer even at his young age. We don’t really need him to do much as a top-10 brings value and he’s certainly capable of that having already nabbed one at COTA.

Why not double-up on the RFK duo? Keselowski moved up at Sonoma and has the speed from practice to move up some this week. Remember we’re tempering PD expectations but all we really need from him is a handful of spots to come close to the value we expect.

A late addition to the playbook after studying lap averages and road course history. To be honest I was going to put Jenson Button in this spot but I simply couldn’t see the upside to Button starting P8 so here is Preece. He’ll be rolling off P28 in the grid which might not be ideal based on what we think the passing chances will be but he did make hay of passing and strategy at Sonoma last road race and moved up several spots. If he nabs a P20 he hits value and his overall and 5-lap averages at practice put him on the cusp of that.

The last time we banked on the practice speed showing up for Jones after a bad qualifying we were right at Nashville. We’re double dipping on Jones just like an Italian Beef from Portillo’s. In overall lap average, Jones ranked P10 at practice and said he felt good translating the sim runs to the real track. He’s likely to be a low-owned play once more who’s a better fit for GPPs.

Whoa Lajoie, where’d that speed come from? In practice, he was inside the top-10 in overall lap average and second in 5-lap average. He’ll start a bit back in the field due to missing a bit in qualifying but, if he can make that speed show up in the race he should be a threat to move up. Lajoie isn’t typically someone we look to at road courses but he has two top-20s this year including a P11 at COTA.

Gilliland has had a good run this year at road courses and he’s back in the 38-car. That’s been where his best showings have come. The 5-lap average in practice was 14th-best which should allow him to move up. Speaking of moving up, he’s found a way to move up at Sonoma and COTA despite being tough to pass at both road races. He’s likely to be a popular cheap play, when dipping this far down the salary list.