NASCAR DFS Crayon 301 Playbook: Christopher Bell and Martin Truex Jr. Set To Duel

There’s not much to add to Bell’s analysis aside from he’s dominated this track. Over the last six years, Bell has raced here in three different series and has five wins including this race last year. He’s now on the pole this year and his car got faster the longer it was on the track at practice. He’s likely to be the most popular play in tournaments given the speed, the team, and his history at the track. I mean he was already the co-favorite for the bookmakers prior to cars hitting the track this week.

Over the last eight races here, Truex has the best average finish of 5.5, and that’s without a win. He’s posted five top-fives in that span and seven top-10s. At similar races this year, the last two have seen him post a P3 and P5 finish heading into New Hampshire. Oh yeah, and he was the fastest car on track much of the day last year too. Now he’s starting P2 with a shot to dominate the laps-led department and perhaps get his first win at NHMS. Truex led the overall lap average, 5-, and 10-lap averages at practice as well. It’s a steep price but we might actually find value at it and leverage compared to the guy above him.

If you took a listen to the podcast, Dan and I had an interesting discussion about whether or not Hamlin fits into builds this week. He’s expensive, for good reason given how well Toyotas and him have run at this style of track, but that causes a bit a problem. Hamlin will be starting P20 after running the fourth-best 10-lap average at practice. That indicates he should be able to move up well, however, at this price tag we likely need more than just PD to hit value. That poses an interesting conundrum for us given the two drivers above him in price are potential dominators and Hamlin makes a tough pairing in lineups. He’s worth a look in cash games but you’ll have to find a sneaky dominator to get two into a build.

It was a rough Saturday for Busch and the 8-team. He was quick in practice before putting the car in the wall and causing damage to the right side. It was fixed in time to qualify where he ran a top-10 speed before then smashing the rear of the car in the wall in Round 2 of qualifying. It’ll be another interesting race for him as he tries to work his way up through the field to get back to his P10 starting spot. He’s certainly capable of doing it if the last 10 similar races are an indication including his win in the last flat track race. That being said he’s a risk in cash but fine in GPPs.

He’s been bad fast in a lot of places this year but he’s been quite dominant on the shorter, flatter tracks. That being said, he’s not posted a finish better than P11 here in his five tries. So do we trust the speed he’s had at previous tracks this year or do we expect a fall back to the mean at New Hampshire? He’s worth a shot as a dominator starting P7 in GPPs if we’re trying to save money in builds.

There’s very little reason not to play Harvick at New Hampshire. In the last eight races here, he’s finished P6 or better seven times including three wins. This year, at shorter, flatter tracks, he’s been solid too, finishing P10 or better at Phoenix, Richmond, and Gateway. With Harvick we’re not all that worried about the speed he shows each weekend given how he can show up for raceday, especially at a track with so much good history for him. That being said though, he did post the seventh-best 10-lap average before qualifying P13.

He’s finished P8 in back-to-back trips to New Hampshire. Despite this seemingly not being a track that would fit his racing style, he’s proven that wrong the last two years. Chastain is also coming off the news of landing the full-time Busch Beer sponsorship for next year which is bound to give him a boost. Starting P31 is sure to make him popular in all formats especially sitting in the mid-tier as well and only needing a top-15 finish to hit value.

In 15 of his 22 races at New Hampshire in his career, he’s locked down a top-10 finish. He’s primed for that this weekend again. He ran P5 in 5-lap average before qualifying P9. While his record at the shorter flatter tracks this year hasn’t been as fruitful, none of them are tracks where Keselowski has a record of success like he does at New Hampshire.

In two of the four similar races this year he’s finished P14 or better in the other two he finished P22 or worse. Last year here though, started P4 and finished P3. He’ll be starting P8 this time around and ran P5 in 10-lap average so perhaps New Hampshire is just a “magic” track for Wallace. One can be sure that he’ll likely have low draft percentage and if his speed holds, there could be value in GPPs.

Welcome to chalk city. It’s what we have to eat though with Gibbs starting dead last in the grid and being in a fast car. Just how fast? He was eighth-fastest in 10-lap average practice before having issues in qualifying. Gibbs has three top-20s in his four similar races to New Hampshire.  Sometimes we just have to the chalk and live with it.

The RFK duo has been quite consistently fast this year. Buescher has three top-15 finishes in the four similar races to New Hampshire this year. Add to that a solid day at practice that saw him run P10 in 5-lap average and P11 in 10-lap average and we’re getting somewhere. Then on top of that he’ll be starting P26 and we get built in PD upside at a mid-tier price. That’s a pretty nice deal.

This is practically a home race for this Connecticut native and it’s a track that fits his driving style. That is to say he’s typically good at short, flat tracks. In the last four similar races, he’s finished P18 or better and ran top-10 in 10-lap average at practice on Saturday. He’s also moved up about six spots a race in that span too. Perhaps starting P21 he’ll fly a bit under the radar as a PD play but he has the speed and history to hit value with a top-15 finish.

What to make of Briscoe to this point? So far the Crew Chief swap at SHR hasn’t exactly helped him but maybe this weekend is different. Prior to Gateway, the last of the similar races run, Briscoe had finished P7, P12, and P5 at Phoenix, Richmond, and Martinsville. Based on practice, and those previous races, he’s got enough speed to sneak a top-20 finish out on Sunday (or Monday) and he’s likely to be fairly low played.

It might be the middle of an up-and-down year for Kaulig but at least this weekend, it appears the 16-car and Allmendinger have speed. He ran the ninth-best 10-lap average at practice before qualifying P14 for the race. The last time he raced at New Hampshire he finished P16. If he can finish about where he starts this weekend, there’s value here at this price.

Is this speed for real? Only one way to find out right? He ran the fastest single-lap speed in practice, granted in the faster of the two groups, He did run the second-fastest 5-, 10-, and 15-lap average in practice as well. He’ll start P17 in the race but if the speed shows up he’s got a shot at a good run. Though to be fair, that would be the first time in a while that he’s had a good run at New Hampshire.

His single-lap speed at practice is exactly where he qualified — P24. His average lap speeds rank 18th, though he didn’t run more than four consecutive circuits at a time. While he’s been so-so on the shorter, flatter tracks this year, he’s the only driver who’s been running at the finish of every race this year. So that has to count for something right?

This inclusion in the playbook has more to do with the reasonable speed he showed than anything else. At practice he ran P12 in 10-lap average before qualifying P34. If the 51-car fielded by Rick Ware Racing can last 300 laps, we could see Custer have his best race in a while, which granted isn’t saying a lot, but it’s something.

He doesn’t make the playbook very often to be honest but this week seems like a race up his alley. Over the last seven similar races, Dillon has moved up an average of five spots a race and has a couple of top-20s. He also comes in as a very cheap option to let you sneak one more higher-priced option into a build.