NASCAR DFS Coca-Cola 600 Playbook: William Byron On Pole In Rain
Published: May 28, 2023
The Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway is a Crown Jewel race of the NASCAR Cup Series schedule. It follows the Crown Jewel races also happening on Sunday of Memorial Day weekend with F1’s Monaco Grand Prix and IndyCar’s Indy 500 earlier in the day. It’s NASCAR’s longest race of the season — 600 miles — and that makes it a challenge in and of itself, now we add in weather. The on-track activities on Saturday were rained out with the Xfinity race being postponed until Monday at noon ET. Cancelled on Saturday thanks to the rain was also the Cup Series practice and qualifying sessions. As we’ll dive into, the lineup being setup via the metric changes the way we see some of the drivers for NASCAR DFS contests on DraftKings and FanDuel and who the NASCAR DFS top plays are for the Coke 600.
What’s the weather for the Coke 600?
Not good. Put simply. The chances of rain on Sunday are in the 70-percent range if not higher and it’s going to be chillier than normal. In order to put on the race they’ll need a couple of hours to dry the track and then a few hour window to get at least halfway through the race. Will we get that? Not sure to be honest but if we don’t get that window the Coke 600 will be moved to Monday afternoon.
Coke 600 Qualifying Results
Thanks to the rain, not “Thanks Ross”, qualifying was cancelled for Saturday night. So how was the qualifying order set? It was set using the metric that takes into account previous race results, fastest lap speeds, and owner and driver points. That does mean that the drivers that had a bad day at Darlington will be starting further back than perhaps they’d hoped. William Byron has landed on the pole with Kevin Harvick starting P2 followed by Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin, and Kyle Busch rounding out the top-five.
NASCAR DFS Strategy for Coca-Cola 600
So with everything we’ve talked about so far, and you’ve listened to in the podcast above, how are we approaching this slate? The Coca-Cola 600 is the longest race of the year and that gives us quite the chance for laps led and fastest laps in our lineups. That will be important on Sunday, or Monday, but not everything. There is also plenty of chances for drivers to move up in this race and at this track. Charlotte is known as a track where the leader and any position on the track aren’t necessarily safe at any point. That being said, it is possible to get a single driver out front for long stretches as we’ve seen here previously like Ross Chastain leading 153 laps a year ago. We’re building lineups around two potential dominators and the rest of the spots we’re targeting high finish positions. Sure position differential will be good to have as well but that’s where the chalk will likely lie based on how the field was set for Sunday’s race.
Core Plays for DraftKings
Start (Click to sort ascending) | Pos (Click to sort ascending) | Player (Click to sort ascending) | DK (Click to sort ascending) | FD (Click to sort ascending) |
---|---|---|---|---|
12 | D | Kyle Larson | 11000 | 14000 |
He’s fast. He’s always fast. He’s won this race before. What else is there to say about Larson and him being the most-expensive driver in the field. Oh yeah, and he has PD. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||
1 | D | William Byron | 10500 | 13500 |
Yay, one of the fastest drivers in the field got gifted the pole position in a race where leading laps matters. Oh yeah, and he’s been perhaps the most dominant car in this package since the middle of last year. Yay! Him starting on the pole does mean that he loses some upside in cash games but given the type of race it is, we can still play him there without much concern. Just know that he’s tended to tail off later in races this year which means we could see him slip back a few spots in the final stage. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||
4 | D | Denny Hamlin | 10300 | 12500 |
Hamlin won this race last year from the pole and now he starts P4. Granted, he only led 15 laps in the race a year ago, however, he’s capable of leading more than that especially if there’s a comp caution. A driver like Hamlin benefits from that as he’ll be able to tell his crew chief exactly what he needs after that long run and it should keep him close to the front for a while. When you add in that he has five top-fives in the last eight races here, that’s a big checkmark in his favor too. Game Type: GPP | ||||
14 | D | Ross Chastain | 10100 | 13000 |
What hasn’t been said about Chastain in the last few weeks? The aggressiveness is known on the track but it’s also helped him be a dominant driver at times including here a year ago when he led 153 laps before fading later in the race. The 1-car is capable of that again this year as well and he has some PD upside too. Don’t be concerned about drivers paying him back this week as I think that’s a bit too much ado about nothing, at least at this point in the season. Game Type: GPP | ||||
18 | D | Martin Truex | 9900 | 11500 |
We all remember a few years ago when Truex had the most-dominant race in NASCAR history leading 392 of the 400 laps. That won’t happen again. It doesn’t really need to for Truex to be a key part of DFS builds starting P18. If he makes his way toward the top-five that’s enough without any laps led or fastest laps being counted. That is possible for sure as he’s been the best car in terms of speed late in runs one the last 10 similar races. Game Type: CASH | ||||
6 | D | Chase Elliott | 9700 | 12000 |
It’s been no hum performance after ho-hum performance from Elliott since returning from the broken leg. At some point, we need to see more from him for both DFS and his playoff hopes this year. He seems to be in good spirits and good head space heading into this weekend in terms of his chances to have a good night. That being said, it’s tough to see him dominating over his teammates in Larson and Byron at this point but who knows, he’s certainly capable of leading 100+ laps when we don’t see it coming. Game Type: CASH | ||||
5 | D | Kyle Busch | 9500 | 11000 |
Busch has nabbed a top-five finish in six of the last seven races at Charlotte and has a win at an intermediate this year. His first year at RCR is going a lot smoother than most may have thought it would and starting P5 gives him a shot at another win at a track he’s loved to run well at a lot in his career. There’s a reason why he’s being considered a favorite pick to win another Coke 600. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||
17 | D | Joey Logano | 9000 | 8000 |
This race seems to be playing right into Logano’s hands. No one is liking the Fords in this package, and fair enough. No one is paying him any mind as he’ll roll off in the middle of the pack and has a so-so history here and on intermediates recently. That being said though, the history here still suggests he can threaten for a top-10 and if so there’s value here. Granted, the real upside comes if they run the race on Sunday night with the cooler temps helping the Fords garner more downforce. Game Type: GPP | ||||
15 | D | Tyler Reddick | 8800 | 9500 |
Reddick has posted an average finish of 9.5 in his four prior trips to Charlotte with no finish outside the top-15. That’s where he’s starting on for the 600 — P15. We all know he’s capable of getting out front and dominating the race but that’s not necessarily what we’ll see this week. Rather expect to see him be a driver who’s methodically moving up in the field but may not lead more than a handful of laps during a pit cycle. Game Type: GPP | ||||
31 | D | Alex Bowman | 8600 | 10000 |
He’s back… just without the commercial like his teammate got a few races back. Bowman is of the belief that his back will hold up over the course of the 600 miles but it is a concern as to whether he’ll fade late in the race or not. The car is good enough to move up well through the field and he’s been pretty consistent at this distance and package type over the last year and change as well. Oh right, he’ll also have PD upside, and a bunch of it, on his side come the drop of the green flag. Game Type: CASH | ||||
24 | D | Daniel Suárez | 7800 | 7800 |
You want the speed without the drama? That’s Suarez for you. He’s been nearly as fast as his teammate in Green Flag Speed over the last 10 similar tracks to Charlotte but without the controversies. Suarez has five top-20s in the last eight Charlotte races and that many top-15s in his last nine similar races as well. Starting P24 keeps him as a threat for a top-15 with decent PD upside as well. Game Type: GPP | ||||
20 | D | Chase Briscoe | 7600 | 6000 |
A lot of chatter has been happening around Briscoe this weekend including a Twitter poll asking about him or the guy below him in the playbook. Granted, the record at intermediates for Briscoe has been spotty and he’s never really seemed to have the speed this year. However, he did start P15 here last year and finished P4 and he did move up double-digit spots at Darlington and Auto Club this year. We’re not looking for that, simply moving up a handful of spots would suffice to hit value. Game Type: GPP | ||||
33 | D | Austin Dillon | 7200 | 6500 |
So in fairness he’s starting further back than I’d anticipated when making the prop bet in the Grill vs. Grille video (you can watch that on FA’s YouTube), however, he still has DFS value. Starting P33 there is a lot of room to move up in the field and he’s a guy who’s been pretty good here. Also over the last nine similar races he has seven top-20s and a 13.7 average finish. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||
37 | D | Jimmie Johnson | 6900 | 5800 |
He’s back… but in a crappy car. That’s the unfortunate part of his return is that the LMC Chevys haven’t been anything close to what they were a year ago. However, this is Johnson and he is starting dead last which means he can’t score negative points. Bonus. He’s just not quite as much of a lock as we’d see from him previously. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||
30 | D | Michael McDowell | 5700 | 5200 |
McDowell is an interesting case this weekend. He’s starting P30 which gives him PD upside, however which do we trust more? His track history or similar tracks? In the last eight Charlotte Oval races he’s posted five top-20s and a solid PD, however in the nine most-recent intermediate races he has just three such finishes. If he can replicate the runs similar to past Charlotte races he’s in a good shape this weekend, but that’s a bit of a big if at this point. Game Type: GPP | ||||
25 | D | Corey LaJoie | 5500 | 3000 |
He seems to be far more consistent this year, especially in the intermediate package, than we thought he’d be. So why not roll him out there again this weekend in GPPs? Over the last eight races here at Charlotte he’s averaged a PD of 7.1 and over the last nine similar races, his PD is 7.0. That’s impressive. Starting P25 gets him a shot to nabe a top-20, for the fourth time here. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||
13 | D | Harrison Burton | 5200 | 3500 |
Burton can benefit us in a few ways this weekend. Firstly, he is cheap and starting P13. Why does that help us? Well, here’s the second reason, people are likely to look past him because of that starting spot but he still has value for GPPs even if he falls back a few spots. Burton started P14 and finished P6 at Darlington and moved up well at Vegas and Auto Club as well this year. Works for me. Game Type: GPP | ||||
35 | D | Todd Gilliland | 5100 | 2000 |
No, he’s not in the car we’d prefer him to be in for sure, however, it’s still the Toddfather and he’s done well at intermediates. Perhaps people will stay off of him a tad because of the Rick Ware car but the PD is still there and given that the parts are fairly stock at this point, I’m less concerned with the equipment. Game Type: CASH |
12 | D | Kyle Larson, D | 11000 | 14000 |
He’s fast. He’s always fast. He’s won this race before. What else is there to say about Larson and him being the most-expensive driver in the field. Oh yeah, and he has PD. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||
1 | D | 10500 | 13500 | |
Yay, one of the fastest drivers in the field got gifted the pole position in a race where leading laps matters. Oh yeah, and he’s been perhaps the most dominant car in this package since the middle of last year. Yay! Him starting on the pole does mean that he loses some upside in cash games but given the type of race it is, we can still play him there without much concern. Just know that he’s tended to tail off later in races this year which means we could see him slip back a few spots in the final stage. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||
4 | D | Denny Hamlin, D | 10300 | 12500 |
Hamlin won this race last year from the pole and now he starts P4. Granted, he only led 15 laps in the race a year ago, however, he’s capable of leading more than that especially if there’s a comp caution. A driver like Hamlin benefits from that as he’ll be able to tell his crew chief exactly what he needs after that long run and it should keep him close to the front for a while. When you add in that he has five top-fives in the last eight races here, that’s a big checkmark in his favor too. Game Type: GPP | ||||
14 | D | 10100 | 13000 | |
What hasn’t been said about Chastain in the last few weeks? The aggressiveness is known on the track but it’s also helped him be a dominant driver at times including here a year ago when he led 153 laps before fading later in the race. The 1-car is capable of that again this year as well and he has some PD upside too. Don’t be concerned about drivers paying him back this week as I think that’s a bit too much ado about nothing, at least at this point in the season. Game Type: GPP | ||||
18 | D | Martin Truex, D | 9900 | 11500 |
We all remember a few years ago when Truex had the most-dominant race in NASCAR history leading 392 of the 400 laps. That won’t happen again. It doesn’t really need to for Truex to be a key part of DFS builds starting P18. If he makes his way toward the top-five that’s enough without any laps led or fastest laps being counted. That is possible for sure as he’s been the best car in terms of speed late in runs one the last 10 similar races. Game Type: CASH | ||||
6 | D | 9700 | 12000 | |
It’s been no hum performance after ho-hum performance from Elliott since returning from the broken leg. At some point, we need to see more from him for both DFS and his playoff hopes this year. He seems to be in good spirits and good head space heading into this weekend in terms of his chances to have a good night. That being said, it’s tough to see him dominating over his teammates in Larson and Byron at this point but who knows, he’s certainly capable of leading 100+ laps when we don’t see it coming. Game Type: CASH | ||||
5 | D | Kyle Busch, D | 9500 | 11000 |
Busch has nabbed a top-five finish in six of the last seven races at Charlotte and has a win at an intermediate this year. His first year at RCR is going a lot smoother than most may have thought it would and starting P5 gives him a shot at another win at a track he’s loved to run well at a lot in his career. There’s a reason why he’s being considered a favorite pick to win another Coke 600. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||
17 | D | Joey Logano, D | 9000 | 8000 |
This race seems to be playing right into Logano’s hands. No one is liking the Fords in this package, and fair enough. No one is paying him any mind as he’ll roll off in the middle of the pack and has a so-so history here and on intermediates recently. That being said though, the history here still suggests he can threaten for a top-10 and if so there’s value here. Granted, the real upside comes if they run the race on Sunday night with the cooler temps helping the Fords garner more downforce. Game Type: GPP | ||||
15 | D | 8800 | 9500 | |
Reddick has posted an average finish of 9.5 in his four prior trips to Charlotte with no finish outside the top-15. That’s where he’s starting on for the 600 — P15. We all know he’s capable of getting out front and dominating the race but that’s not necessarily what we’ll see this week. Rather expect to see him be a driver who’s methodically moving up in the field but may not lead more than a handful of laps during a pit cycle. Game Type: GPP | ||||
31 | D | Alex Bowman, D | 8600 | 10000 |
He’s back… just without the commercial like his teammate got a few races back. Bowman is of the belief that his back will hold up over the course of the 600 miles but it is a concern as to whether he’ll fade late in the race or not. The car is good enough to move up well through the field and he’s been pretty consistent at this distance and package type over the last year and change as well. Oh right, he’ll also have PD upside, and a bunch of it, on his side come the drop of the green flag. Game Type: CASH | ||||
24 | D | 7800 | 7800 | |
You want the speed without the drama? That’s Suarez for you. He’s been nearly as fast as his teammate in Green Flag Speed over the last 10 similar tracks to Charlotte but without the controversies. Suarez has five top-20s in the last eight Charlotte races and that many top-15s in his last nine similar races as well. Starting P24 keeps him as a threat for a top-15 with decent PD upside as well. Game Type: GPP | ||||
20 | D | 7600 | 6000 | |
A lot of chatter has been happening around Briscoe this weekend including a Twitter poll asking about him or the guy below him in the playbook. Granted, the record at intermediates for Briscoe has been spotty and he’s never really seemed to have the speed this year. However, he did start P15 here last year and finished P4 and he did move up double-digit spots at Darlington and Auto Club this year. We’re not looking for that, simply moving up a handful of spots would suffice to hit value. Game Type: GPP | ||||
33 | D | 7200 | 6500 | |
So in fairness he’s starting further back than I’d anticipated when making the prop bet in the Grill vs. Grille video (you can watch that on FA’s YouTube), however, he still has DFS value. Starting P33 there is a lot of room to move up in the field and he’s a guy who’s been pretty good here. Also over the last nine similar races he has seven top-20s and a 13.7 average finish. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||
37 | D | 6900 | 5800 | |
He’s back… but in a crappy car. That’s the unfortunate part of his return is that the LMC Chevys haven’t been anything close to what they were a year ago. However, this is Johnson and he is starting dead last which means he can’t score negative points. Bonus. He’s just not quite as much of a lock as we’d see from him previously. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||
30 | D | 5700 | 5200 | |
McDowell is an interesting case this weekend. He’s starting P30 which gives him PD upside, however which do we trust more? His track history or similar tracks? In the last eight Charlotte Oval races he’s posted five top-20s and a solid PD, however in the nine most-recent intermediate races he has just three such finishes. If he can replicate the runs similar to past Charlotte races he’s in a good shape this weekend, but that’s a bit of a big if at this point. Game Type: GPP | ||||
25 | D | Corey LaJoie, D | 5500 | 3000 |
He seems to be far more consistent this year, especially in the intermediate package, than we thought he’d be. So why not roll him out there again this weekend in GPPs? Over the last eight races here at Charlotte he’s averaged a PD of 7.1 and over the last nine similar races, his PD is 7.0. That’s impressive. Starting P25 gets him a shot to nabe a top-20, for the fourth time here. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||
13 | D | 5200 | 3500 | |
Burton can benefit us in a few ways this weekend. Firstly, he is cheap and starting P13. Why does that help us? Well, here’s the second reason, people are likely to look past him because of that starting spot but he still has value for GPPs even if he falls back a few spots. Burton started P14 and finished P6 at Darlington and moved up well at Vegas and Auto Club as well this year. Works for me. Game Type: GPP | ||||
35 | D | 5100 | 2000 | |
No, he’s not in the car we’d prefer him to be in for sure, however, it’s still the Toddfather and he’s done well at intermediates. Perhaps people will stay off of him a tad because of the Rick Ware car but the PD is still there and given that the parts are fairly stock at this point, I’m less concerned with the equipment. Game Type: CASH |