NASCAR DFS Ally 400 Playbook: Ross Chastain Lands On First Ever Pole

Will the on-track action be as hot as the chicken in Nashville for the Ally 400? Nashville Superspeedway is the venue for this weekend’s race and it’s proving to be a tricky task. Following the Father’s Day Weekend break in the NASCAR Cup Series schedule, we’ve seen top plays struggle in practice and qualifying but will they straighten it out for the race? In this week’s NASCAR DFS Playbook, I’ll talk about why we’re counting practice results more seriously than qualifying results for the Ally 400. Who are the top plays for DraftKings and Fanduel? How we’re building lineups for DFS? And what are the tracks we can compare to Nashville? As always we’ll have NASCAR DFS projections for the Ally 400, we have the DFS Preview Podcast, and I’ll be in Discord answering whatever questions you have leading up to lineup lock at 7 et on Sunday evening.

Nashville Speedway Layout and Comparable Tracks

Among the NASCAR schedule, it’s hard to find a track that’s as interesting as Nashville Superspeedway. It’s a 1.33-mile track that’s racing surface is completely concrete. While Darlington is of a similar length, the shape, surface, and banking aren’t comparable. So if Darlington isn’t comparable, what is? Well, drivers after practice and qualifying were comparing the feeling of the track to Dover, firstly because of the concrete surface, but secondly because of the tightness of the corners and how you set up for them. The other tracks we can compare it to is New Hampshire, a bit, Las Vegas, a bit, and Gateway — you guessed it — a bit. It’s tough to say that any of those actually fit perfectly but there are aspects of each of them that fit. In New Hampshire, we have a tight, flat, concrete oval. In Vegas, it’s a track-position-dependent race with high speeds. In Dover, it’s the concrete surface that self-cleans and the weather dependence that mimics Nashville. Gateway, aside from being flat, it’s also tough to pass there too. So for research and the drivers in the playbook are ones that have not only looked good this weekend but have also shown well at those similar tracks too.

Ally 400 NASCAR DFS Strategies

As you may have guessed by now, track position will be key on Sunday evening. It’s a track that’s been tough to pass at over the last couple of races and this year should be no different. In fact, the evening drop of the green flag means the track should have more grip in it and give some drivers more confidence in how their cars will handle. The other side of that coin is that if the car was good in qualifying but not so in practice, it could be a long day of finding the adjustments needed. In the 2022 Ally 400, we saw two drivers lead 80 or more laps and four drivers topping 40 laps led. In the 2021 edition of the race it was one driver leading 262 of 300 laps, Kyle Larson. Will we see that again in 2023? It’s likelier to be the 2022 version in that we see two laps led dominators and possibly a third getting a chunk. That’s just what we’ve seen with the Next Gen cars. Just look at the tracks we’ve compared Nashville to and you’ll see the types of races we’ve gotten from this setup and car.

For DFS what does all this mean? Well, we’re looking at GPP contests in a 60-40 split with cash games. There isn’t necessarily a huge chalk play for cash but there are fewer ways to build your lineups for cash than GPP. If we’re building for two dominators how are we filling the rest of the spots? PD will be a tad tougher to come by here this weekend but it’s still vital. There are some sneakier PD plays and we’re also looking for the guys who may just hold their spot and bring value rather than having to move up several spots. One last thing to consider, there is a chance of severe weather moving into the mid-Tennessee area about halfway through the expected race time. If that develops, again it’s a big if, it could change the end point of the race and how NASCAR looks to finish the event.

Practice and Qualifying Results

The following table shows practice and qualifying results for Friday and Saturday’s session for the Ally 400. It’s designed to show who ran the best at practice or who may have out ran that in qualifying or didn’t run quite as well as they should’ve. Long run speed will be important this weekend in the race so check out the lap averages columns.

Stacks

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