NASCAR DFS Ally 400 Playbook: Ross Chastain Lands On First Ever Pole
Published: Jun 25, 2023
Will the on-track action be as hot as the chicken in Nashville for the Ally 400? Nashville Superspeedway is the venue for this weekend’s race and it’s proving to be a tricky task. Following the Father’s Day Weekend break in the NASCAR Cup Series schedule, we’ve seen top plays struggle in practice and qualifying but will they straighten it out for the race? In this week’s NASCAR DFS Playbook, I’ll talk about why we’re counting practice results more seriously than qualifying results for the Ally 400. Who are the top plays for DraftKings and Fanduel? How we’re building lineups for DFS? And what are the tracks we can compare to Nashville? As always we’ll have NASCAR DFS projections for the Ally 400, we have the DFS Preview Podcast, and I’ll be in Discord answering whatever questions you have leading up to lineup lock at 7 et on Sunday evening.
Nashville Speedway Layout and Comparable Tracks
Among the NASCAR schedule, it’s hard to find a track that’s as interesting as Nashville Superspeedway. It’s a 1.33-mile track that’s racing surface is completely concrete. While Darlington is of a similar length, the shape, surface, and banking aren’t comparable. So if Darlington isn’t comparable, what is? Well, drivers after practice and qualifying were comparing the feeling of the track to Dover, firstly because of the concrete surface, but secondly because of the tightness of the corners and how you set up for them. The other tracks we can compare it to is New Hampshire, a bit, Las Vegas, a bit, and Gateway — you guessed it — a bit. It’s tough to say that any of those actually fit perfectly but there are aspects of each of them that fit. In New Hampshire, we have a tight, flat, concrete oval. In Vegas, it’s a track-position-dependent race with high speeds. In Dover, it’s the concrete surface that self-cleans and the weather dependence that mimics Nashville. Gateway, aside from being flat, it’s also tough to pass there too. So for research and the drivers in the playbook are ones that have not only looked good this weekend but have also shown well at those similar tracks too.
Ally 400 NASCAR DFS Strategies
As you may have guessed by now, track position will be key on Sunday evening. It’s a track that’s been tough to pass at over the last couple of races and this year should be no different. In fact, the evening drop of the green flag means the track should have more grip in it and give some drivers more confidence in how their cars will handle. The other side of that coin is that if the car was good in qualifying but not so in practice, it could be a long day of finding the adjustments needed. In the 2022 Ally 400, we saw two drivers lead 80 or more laps and four drivers topping 40 laps led. In the 2021 edition of the race it was one driver leading 262 of 300 laps, Kyle Larson. Will we see that again in 2023? It’s likelier to be the 2022 version in that we see two laps led dominators and possibly a third getting a chunk. That’s just what we’ve seen with the Next Gen cars. Just look at the tracks we’ve compared Nashville to and you’ll see the types of races we’ve gotten from this setup and car.
For DFS what does all this mean? Well, we’re looking at GPP contests in a 60-40 split with cash games. There isn’t necessarily a huge chalk play for cash but there are fewer ways to build your lineups for cash than GPP. If we’re building for two dominators how are we filling the rest of the spots? PD will be a tad tougher to come by here this weekend but it’s still vital. There are some sneakier PD plays and we’re also looking for the guys who may just hold their spot and bring value rather than having to move up several spots. One last thing to consider, there is a chance of severe weather moving into the mid-Tennessee area about halfway through the expected race time. If that develops, again it’s a big if, it could change the end point of the race and how NASCAR looks to finish the event.
Practice and Qualifying Results
The following table shows practice and qualifying results for Friday and Saturday’s session for the Ally 400. It’s designed to show who ran the best at practice or who may have out ran that in qualifying or didn’t run quite as well as they should’ve. Long run speed will be important this weekend in the race so check out the lap averages columns.
Driver | Avg. Prac to Qual | Qual | 1-Lap | 5-Lap | 10-lap | 15-Lap | 20-Lap |
Ross Chastain | -1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Tyler Reddick | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
Justin Haley | -22 | 3 | 28 | 27 | 26 | 20 | |
Joey Logano | -13 | 4 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 14 | |
William Byron | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Martin Truex Jr | 3 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 5 |
Kyle Larson | 0 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
Denny Hamlin | 0 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 10 |
Bubba Wallace | 3 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 9 | ||
Daniel Suarez | -4 | 10 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 13 | 12 |
Kyle Busch | -10 | 11 | 21 | 24 | 18 | ||
Chris Buescher | 4 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 9 |
Ryan Blaney | 2 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 8 | 6 |
Chase Elliott | 5 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 8 | ||
Alex Bowman | -10 | 15 | 25 | 22 | 27 | ||
Ty Gibbs | 2 | 16 | 11 | 20 | 15 | 12 | 13 |
Kevin Harvick | 4 | 17 | 15 | 11 | 16 | 10 | 11 |
Chase Briscoe | -13 | 18 | 31 | 30 | 31 | ||
AJ Allmendinger | 7 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 20 | 11 | 8 |
Brad Keselowski | 6 | 20 | 19 | 13 | 10 | 16 | |
Aric Almirola | 2 | 21 | 23 | 18 | 21 | 17 | 15 |
Christopher Bell | 11 | 22 | 18 | 15 | 11 | 6 | 7 |
Erik Jones | 14 | 23 | 4 | 10 | 14 | ||
Austin Cindric | -7 | 24 | 30 | 32 | 30 | ||
Ryan Preece | 4 | 25 | 22 | 25 | 23 | 15 | |
Austin Dillon | 4 | 26 | 26 | 23 | 17 | ||
Todd Gilliland | -7 | 27 | 34 | 34 | 33 | ||
Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 8 | 28 | 20 | 21 | 25 | 19 | 14 |
JJ Yeley | -1 | 29 | 29 | 31 | |||
Noah Gragson | 3 | 30 | 32 | 28 | 28 | 22 | |
Harrison Burton | 0 | 31 | 27 | 33 | 32 | ||
Brennan Poole | -3 | 32 | 35 | 35 | |||
Michael McDowell | 15 | 33 | 12 | 17 | 24 | 21 | |
Ty Dillon | 4 | 34 | 33 | 29 | 29 | ||
Josh Bilicki | -1 | 35 | 36 | 36 | |||
Corey Lajoie | 14 | 36 | 24 | 26 | 22 | 18 |
Start (Click to sort ascending) | Pos (Click to sort ascending) | Player (Click to sort ascending) | DK (Click to sort ascending) | FD (Click to sort ascending) |
---|---|---|---|---|
7 | D | Kyle Larson | 11600 | 14000 |
It’s weird to say “play the most expensive guy at your own risk” but that’s where we are with Larson. He’s been highly inconsistent this year despite having speed nearly every week. It appears he has it again this week with a top-five in most speed metrics at practice before qualifying P7. However, at this price we need more than just a top-five, we need dominator points and we’re unlikely to get them unless the guys in front of him have issues. That’s a risk at this price. Game Type: GPP | ||||
6 | D | Martin Truex | 10900 | 13500 |
It’s been a solid run of late for Truex including the win at Sonoma the last race out. Now comes a track he, and the Toyotas, have been good at previously and this weekend. He ran consistently well at practice on Friday and backed it up with a P6 starting spot. If he harken back to last year, he was P2 before inexplicably pulling off to pit before a late-race restart that had him stuck in the low-20s. Assuming he doesn’t make that mistake again, he should be setup for another strong day in Music City. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||
14 | D | Chase Elliott | 10400 | 11000 |
Now that he’s back in the seat for what figures to be the rest of the year, can he get some rhythm and mojo going? Elliott needs it more than any since he needs a win to make the playoffs at this point. He’ll start P14 and have top-10 speed in his car, now if only he can actually bring it home the why we expect from him at this point. We’re unlikely to get dominator points from Elliott this week but a top-five finish is possible with some breaks. Game Type: CASH | ||||
5 | D | William Byron | 10100 | 13000 |
One of the most consistent drivers all weekend, and frankly all year, Byron will start P5 and ran right around there in practice. He’s been the most consistent car in the Hendrick camp this year, though that’s a little unfair given the absences of Elliott and Alex Bowman in the first half of the year, and his speed has shown up again this weekend. Can he dominate in this race? Possibly. It’ll take some luck being on his side but we’ve seen him lead a ton of laps before without being the best car on the track. The other thing on his side? The two winners here previously were Hendrick drivers Larson and Elliott and they started P4 and P5 the years they won. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||
13 | D | Ryan Blaney | 9900 | 10500 |
Does one race win make us forget about a drought? Yes. Plus it was in the intermediate package and he’s shown up again with speed being the fastest Ford at practice. While we’ve seen that before from Blaney and it hasn’t always translated to the race, you can feel a difference in his confidence after that win. Are we expecting a win this week? Nope, but a solid run is certainly possible and that’s all we likely need from him. Game Type: GPP | ||||
1 | D | Ross Chastain | 9600 | 10000 |
Mr. Showstopper might be back. He was blazing fast at practice and blazing fast at qualifying to land his first pole in the Cup series. The pole-sitter last year led 114 laps before finishing P6 and with Trackhouse being essentially based in Nashville you can bet he wants nothing more than to break his winless streak at his teams de facto home track. Given the speed at practice and the type of track this is he’s fine in both formats. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||
22 | D | Christopher Bell | 9400 | 11500 |
It’s been an interesting few races for Bell who seems to have fallen off the pace a bit at JGR. He didn’t show blazing speed at practice but it was certainly better than where he qualified P22. There is a chance that JGR is using Bell as a bit of a test over the last few weeks, much like Hendrick used Byron that way last year given Bell is basically assured of a playoff spot. Lucky for us we don’t need elite performance from him, simply running solidly and moving up several spots would be enough. Basically equalling his practice placement would work. Game Type: CASH | ||||
2 | D | Tyler Reddick | 9100 | 9500 |
It’s hard to tell who’s been faster this weekend between Reddick and Ross Chastain. It’s about time for Reddick to show up with great speed and what a shock, it’s at a track this car finished P2 at last year. After back-to-back negative points weeks his drop in price makes him a very valuable piece for any build. There’s also the fact that every time he’s been in this salary range he’s had a good week on the track. If we need one more narrative for his value, the bossman, Michael Jordan, is in town at the track this weekend. Game Type: GPP | ||||
17 | D | Kevin Harvick | 8800 | 8500 |
After officially having his replacement announced and an off-weekend. The 47-year-old seems to be rejuvenated and ready to try and prove people wrong in the second half of the year. He’ll be starting P17 after flashing top-10 long-run speed. If the 4-team can nail the strategy and the race is full of long runs, he has a shot to nab another top-10 that we’ve become so used to from Harvick. Game Type: CASH | ||||
9 | D | Bubba Wallace | 8400 | 8200 |
He nearly had the pole in qualifying until he got loose off of Turn 4. Luckily when he spun he didn’t hit anything nor damage anything and the team will be able to keep his primary car and his P9 starting spot. He’s posted four top-fives this year and has the speed to pull that off again, assuming he doesn’t get loose again. The Toyota camp has been racy most of this year and that includes Wallace who’s been fast at similar tracks earlier this year. I think he’s got a shot to hold in the top-10 and bring value in the mid-tier with leverage since people still hate playing him. Game Type: GPP | ||||
16 | D | Ty Gibbs | 7800 | 7500 |
Perhaps the break weekend helped him regroup and find his form again. The Cup Series schedule is a serious bump up from the Xfinity schedule, especially when he was dominating week-in-and-week-out. The Toyotas in general have been fast this week and he was one of those in practice before qualifying P16. He got extra track time in the Xfinity race on Saturday as well which is always helpful for a young guy on a newer track. Game Type: GPP | ||||
12 | D | Chris Buescher | 7500 | 7200 |
He’s been one of the best-performing Fords on the track most weeks and this week appears to be on different. Buescher ran in the top-nine most of practice and then qualified P12. He’s coming off of back-to-back top-10 showings prior to the off-weekend. He’ll need 37.5 points to hit value which he’s hit each of the last four points-paying races and even better his practice speeds matched where we need him to finish to hit that value. Game Type: CASH | ||||
28 | D | Ricky Stenhouse | 7300 | 6800 |
It’s hard to deny that Stenhouse has been solid at intermediate-type tracks for a little while now. He’s posted five top-20s and four top-15s in the last 10 similar races. The P28 starting spot gives him upside and he’s still likely a bit under the radar at tracks like this. There is clearly a bit of risk given his brand but he’s been consistent at putting together races and Sunday should be another one. Game Type: GPP | ||||
19 | D | AJ Allmendinger | 6500 | 5000 |
The Kaulig duo seems to have shown up with good speed and the speed really showed in practice for Allmendinger. He top-11 in most metrics of speed before qualifying P19. Allmendinger is the higher priced of the two Kaulig cars but offers the higher upside given that he’s starting P19 compared to Justin Haley at P3 and to be honest, Allmendinger has more speed. He’s locked down top-18 finishes in similar races this year including back-to-back top-14s. He also nabbed track time in the Xfinity race on Saturday. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||
23 | D | Erik Jones | 6200 | 5800 |
Jones is an extreme GPP-only play given how terrible, sorry “horrid” as Dale Jr. said, Legacy has been as a team this year. It certainly hasn’t been a good year for him and the 43-car team but they have speed this weekend it appears from practice. He did struggle in qualifying when he landed P23 on the pylon after running P14 or better in practice. Whether the speed is real or not will be sorted out in the race but there is hope that Jones, who likes this track and has nine top-20s in his last 10 similar races can show up for once. Game Type: GPP | ||||
33 | D | Michael McDowell | 5800 | 4500 |
A screw up in qualifying has McDowell starting P33 but he did show decent speed in practice. If that speed shows up again in the race, there is PD upside here. However, I do have concerns about his long-run speed as it dissipated the longer he was on the track at practice. He might be popular given his starting spot and price and his five top-20s in the last 10 similar races including two top-16s in the two races here. Game Type: CASH | ||||
36 | D | Corey LaJoie | 5300 | 4200 |
He’s a free square. It was a loose exit of Turn 4 that had him spinning into the infield grass. They are repairing the car but the key thing is, there doesn’t appear to be much damage on the car and that car was decently fast in practice and should be able to move up into the top-25. That’s more than enough to hit value. Game Type: CASH & GPP |
7 | D | Kyle Larson, D | 11600 | 14000 |
It’s weird to say “play the most expensive guy at your own risk” but that’s where we are with Larson. He’s been highly inconsistent this year despite having speed nearly every week. It appears he has it again this week with a top-five in most speed metrics at practice before qualifying P7. However, at this price we need more than just a top-five, we need dominator points and we’re unlikely to get them unless the guys in front of him have issues. That’s a risk at this price. Game Type: GPP | ||||
6 | D | Martin Truex, D | 10900 | 13500 |
It’s been a solid run of late for Truex including the win at Sonoma the last race out. Now comes a track he, and the Toyotas, have been good at previously and this weekend. He ran consistently well at practice on Friday and backed it up with a P6 starting spot. If he harken back to last year, he was P2 before inexplicably pulling off to pit before a late-race restart that had him stuck in the low-20s. Assuming he doesn’t make that mistake again, he should be setup for another strong day in Music City. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||
14 | D | 10400 | 11000 | |
Now that he’s back in the seat for what figures to be the rest of the year, can he get some rhythm and mojo going? Elliott needs it more than any since he needs a win to make the playoffs at this point. He’ll start P14 and have top-10 speed in his car, now if only he can actually bring it home the why we expect from him at this point. We’re unlikely to get dominator points from Elliott this week but a top-five finish is possible with some breaks. Game Type: CASH | ||||
5 | D | 10100 | 13000 | |
One of the most consistent drivers all weekend, and frankly all year, Byron will start P5 and ran right around there in practice. He’s been the most consistent car in the Hendrick camp this year, though that’s a little unfair given the absences of Elliott and Alex Bowman in the first half of the year, and his speed has shown up again this weekend. Can he dominate in this race? Possibly. It’ll take some luck being on his side but we’ve seen him lead a ton of laps before without being the best car on the track. The other thing on his side? The two winners here previously were Hendrick drivers Larson and Elliott and they started P4 and P5 the years they won. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||
13 | D | Ryan Blaney, D | 9900 | 10500 |
Does one race win make us forget about a drought? Yes. Plus it was in the intermediate package and he’s shown up again with speed being the fastest Ford at practice. While we’ve seen that before from Blaney and it hasn’t always translated to the race, you can feel a difference in his confidence after that win. Are we expecting a win this week? Nope, but a solid run is certainly possible and that’s all we likely need from him. Game Type: GPP | ||||
1 | D | 9600 | 10000 | |
Mr. Showstopper might be back. He was blazing fast at practice and blazing fast at qualifying to land his first pole in the Cup series. The pole-sitter last year led 114 laps before finishing P6 and with Trackhouse being essentially based in Nashville you can bet he wants nothing more than to break his winless streak at his teams de facto home track. Given the speed at practice and the type of track this is he’s fine in both formats. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||
22 | D | 9400 | 11500 | |
It’s been an interesting few races for Bell who seems to have fallen off the pace a bit at JGR. He didn’t show blazing speed at practice but it was certainly better than where he qualified P22. There is a chance that JGR is using Bell as a bit of a test over the last few weeks, much like Hendrick used Byron that way last year given Bell is basically assured of a playoff spot. Lucky for us we don’t need elite performance from him, simply running solidly and moving up several spots would be enough. Basically equalling his practice placement would work. Game Type: CASH | ||||
2 | D | 9100 | 9500 | |
It’s hard to tell who’s been faster this weekend between Reddick and Ross Chastain. It’s about time for Reddick to show up with great speed and what a shock, it’s at a track this car finished P2 at last year. After back-to-back negative points weeks his drop in price makes him a very valuable piece for any build. There’s also the fact that every time he’s been in this salary range he’s had a good week on the track. If we need one more narrative for his value, the bossman, Michael Jordan, is in town at the track this weekend. Game Type: GPP | ||||
17 | D | 8800 | 8500 | |
After officially having his replacement announced and an off-weekend. The 47-year-old seems to be rejuvenated and ready to try and prove people wrong in the second half of the year. He’ll be starting P17 after flashing top-10 long-run speed. If the 4-team can nail the strategy and the race is full of long runs, he has a shot to nab another top-10 that we’ve become so used to from Harvick. Game Type: CASH | ||||
9 | D | 8400 | 8200 | |
He nearly had the pole in qualifying until he got loose off of Turn 4. Luckily when he spun he didn’t hit anything nor damage anything and the team will be able to keep his primary car and his P9 starting spot. He’s posted four top-fives this year and has the speed to pull that off again, assuming he doesn’t get loose again. The Toyota camp has been racy most of this year and that includes Wallace who’s been fast at similar tracks earlier this year. I think he’s got a shot to hold in the top-10 and bring value in the mid-tier with leverage since people still hate playing him. Game Type: GPP | ||||
16 | D | Ty Gibbs, D | 7800 | 7500 |
Perhaps the break weekend helped him regroup and find his form again. The Cup Series schedule is a serious bump up from the Xfinity schedule, especially when he was dominating week-in-and-week-out. The Toyotas in general have been fast this week and he was one of those in practice before qualifying P16. He got extra track time in the Xfinity race on Saturday as well which is always helpful for a young guy on a newer track. Game Type: GPP | ||||
12 | D | 7500 | 7200 | |
He’s been one of the best-performing Fords on the track most weeks and this week appears to be on different. Buescher ran in the top-nine most of practice and then qualified P12. He’s coming off of back-to-back top-10 showings prior to the off-weekend. He’ll need 37.5 points to hit value which he’s hit each of the last four points-paying races and even better his practice speeds matched where we need him to finish to hit that value. Game Type: CASH | ||||
28 | D | 7300 | 6800 | |
It’s hard to deny that Stenhouse has been solid at intermediate-type tracks for a little while now. He’s posted five top-20s and four top-15s in the last 10 similar races. The P28 starting spot gives him upside and he’s still likely a bit under the radar at tracks like this. There is clearly a bit of risk given his brand but he’s been consistent at putting together races and Sunday should be another one. Game Type: GPP | ||||
19 | D | 6500 | 5000 | |
The Kaulig duo seems to have shown up with good speed and the speed really showed in practice for Allmendinger. He top-11 in most metrics of speed before qualifying P19. Allmendinger is the higher priced of the two Kaulig cars but offers the higher upside given that he’s starting P19 compared to Justin Haley at P3 and to be honest, Allmendinger has more speed. He’s locked down top-18 finishes in similar races this year including back-to-back top-14s. He also nabbed track time in the Xfinity race on Saturday. Game Type: CASH & GPP | ||||
23 | D | Erik Jones, D | 6200 | 5800 |
Jones is an extreme GPP-only play given how terrible, sorry “horrid” as Dale Jr. said, Legacy has been as a team this year. It certainly hasn’t been a good year for him and the 43-car team but they have speed this weekend it appears from practice. He did struggle in qualifying when he landed P23 on the pylon after running P14 or better in practice. Whether the speed is real or not will be sorted out in the race but there is hope that Jones, who likes this track and has nine top-20s in his last 10 similar races can show up for once. Game Type: GPP | ||||
33 | D | 5800 | 4500 | |
A screw up in qualifying has McDowell starting P33 but he did show decent speed in practice. If that speed shows up again in the race, there is PD upside here. However, I do have concerns about his long-run speed as it dissipated the longer he was on the track at practice. He might be popular given his starting spot and price and his five top-20s in the last 10 similar races including two top-16s in the two races here. Game Type: CASH | ||||
36 | D | Corey LaJoie, D | 5300 | 4200 |
He’s a free square. It was a loose exit of Turn 4 that had him spinning into the infield grass. They are repairing the car but the key thing is, there doesn’t appear to be much damage on the car and that car was decently fast in practice and should be able to move up into the top-25. That’s more than enough to hit value. Game Type: CASH & GPP |