HyVee Perks 250 DFS Picks & NASCAR Playbook - Iowa Speedway, 6/15

The NASCAR Xfinity Series is heading back to some old stomping grounds. For the first time in almost five years, Iowa Speedway lands on the NASCAR schedule. Sure, it’s a big weekend as it’ll be the first time the NASCAR Cup Series takes a turn at this short track. But a few of these drivers may have some familiarity even if they haven’t raced here in a while. 

Shane van Gisbergen of Kaulig Racing has won the last two races, both of which were on road courses. Can he carry that momentum to the Midwest and finally pull off a solid performance on an oval? Or will we see Jr. Motorsports, Joe Gibbs Racing, or Stewart-Haas Racing once again reign supreme? Let’s dig into the top NASCAR DFS picks, drivers and strategies for Saturday’s HyVee Perks 250!

HyVee Perks 250 NASCAR DFS Lineup Picks

With the track returning to the schedule and coming off a re-pave in certain areas, we get a 50-minute practice session Friday afternoon with qualifying at around 12:05pm ET on Saturday. That qualifying window is tricky for NASCAR DFS. Qualifying starts about three-and-a-half hours before this race is supposed to go green. So, it likely finishes around 1:00pm ET. We won’t have a lot of time for updates and pivots once we know the starting order. I will provide notes in RED below as well as the table with the driver pool. But most immediate updates will occur in the NASCAR DFS Discord.

But what should we expect this weekend at Iowa? This track measures in at 0.875 miles in length and is regularly featured on the IndyCar schedule. Some parts of the track, but not all, underwent a repave in the offseason. Cup drivers like Christopher Bell, Kyle Larson, and Brad Keselowski ran the tire test at Iowa earlier this season. There were some mixed reviews, but overall, it sounds like grip will be lacking.

After a few practice sessions and qualifying, we’re hoping there will be enough rubber laid down for this race. There is no shortage of dominator points this weekend. We’ll have 250 laps at our disposal which is a lot for this series. When we account for cautions, which are abundant for these drivers, I’d guess we have probably 150-160 dominator points to account for. Multi-dominator builds are highly recommended.

But perhaps we get a little contrarian and build some single-dominator builds for this race, shall we? In looking at the eight-race sample size from 2016-2019. In every race there was one driver that led at least 100 laps. Truthfully, most of the races saw one driver lead at least 140 laps. In some instances, Christopher Bell went bananas and led over 200 laps.

It does appear that winning the pole has its advantages. The clean air and difficult level of passing give an edge to the polesitter or whoever also starts on the front row. Moreover, in this eight-race sample size, most of the drivers that qualified well ended up finishing well. 83.75% of the drivers that started in the top 15, finished in the top 10. 60% of the drivers that started in the top 10 ended up finishing in the top 10.

Normally we would jump on position differential plays. But for this race, only take it if it’s an elite car/driver. If it’s a mid-range driver, maybe go underweight. These races from five-to-nine years ago averaged only six or seven cautions per race for about 40-45 laps. And that’s another factor we need to remember. This is a short track, and cars will get lapped on longer green flag runs. If a popular PD play is stuck and can’t move up, he/she is at risk of losing a lap.

Alas, we are looking at a sample size from years ago. But I do think it’s worth noting the importance of clean air and nailing the correct dominator or two while getting plenty of exposure to drivers in the top 15. Let’s take a look at my top plays prior to practice and qualifying.

HyVee Perks 250 Practice Notes

Top Price Core Plays

Justin Allgaier ($11,000)

I fully understand it’s been a hot minute since NASCAR has raced at Iowa. And I don’t want to dwell on track history simply because things could be completely different on Saturday. But Allgaier has raced here 16 times and won here back in 2018 where he led 182 laps and won every stage. I can only reiterate that track position clearly matters here. 

Allgaier has also just been finding his way to the front of late. After a bit of a sluggish start to the year by his standards, he’s led 40+ laps at tracks like Texas, Darlington, Charlotte, and Portland. All of those tracks are different. Heck, Portland is a road course. 

But he’s running very well and even led 52 laps earlier this year at Phoenix before getting in a wreck. Even if you want to throw out the track history, the recent form is heavily on his side.

Chandler Smith ($10,500)

I went back and forth between Smith and John Hunter Nemechek ($10,800) and while you can’t go wrong with either, I’m going to highlight Smith. Smith had some great runs in his lone season with Kaulig Racing last year. His only win came at Richmond where he led 83 laps, but he also led over 70 at Nashville and finished 12^th, and he finished as the runner-up at New Hampshire.

He’s carried over the short track success to Joe Gibbs Racing, an organization notorious for nailing the setup on short, flat tracks. Smith kicked off this year with six top five finishes in the first seven races. Within that sample size he was able to collect wins at Phoenix and Richmond, easily two very comparable tracks to what we think we’ll see at Iowa.

The last handful of races have not necessarily catered to his strengths, so it looks like he’s regressed. But I don’t want to shy away from him simply because he hasn’t finished in the top five over the last two months.

He still possesses win equity, and this is a track where it feels like one of these JGR cars could get out front and lead 150+ laps.

Update: Chandler Smith looks to have the best long-run car if practice is any indication. If he lands on the front row he'll be a very popular DFS play.

Cole Custer ($10,200)

From what we’ve seen from Custer since returning to the Xfinity Series, this track could be catered to his strengths. Custer dominated last Fall’s race at Phoenix with 96 laps led on his way to winning the Xfinity Series Championship. He doesn’t have a win this season, but he once again looked great at Phoenix and had solid showings at other higher tire wear tracks as well. 

He’s also no stranger to leading laps here, as he led over 100 in a race at this track back in 2018 while leading 50+ in another Iowa race the following year. The price isn’t terrible because with so many laps to lead he can easily crush value if he gets out front. 

Sheldon Creed ($9,500)

I'm adding Creed to the top section following practice. We know the equipment is comparable to what Chandler Smith and John Hunter Nemechek will run. He also posted the second-best 10-lap average in practice and he's Pockrass' to win today's race and Bob has been on a small heater lately with his picks. That doesn't mean Creed isn't without his own faults as he's disappointed plenty times before. But the speed in practice is promising.

Austin Hill ($9,700) gets a big upgrade since he'll start on the pole. We don't normally think of Hill as a great play on short tracks but with the clean air early on he certainly has a great opportunity to collect dominator points.

Mid-Price Core Plays

Brett Moffitt ($9,000)

Moffitt gets a massive opportunity this weekend. He gets a chance to race at his home track and more importantly, he’s in the 19-car for Joe Gibbs Racing. Moffitt has made two appearances this year with TRICON Garage in the Truck Series finishing 5^th at Kansas and 15^th at Charlotte. This will be some of the best equipment he’s ever driven. 

Speaking of Truck Series results, Moffitt won two Truck Series races at Iowa in 2018 and 2019. Imagine that! As far as the Xfinity Series results go, he did start P21 at this track back in 2017 and finished 11^th with GMS Racing.

The results for the 19-car this year have been… Okay? Ty Gibbs deserved better last week. He was dominant in the first stage at Sonoma and could’ve won the race, but he wrecked. But this car only has two top 10 finishes all year. So while I will temper expectations a little bit, it’s exciting to see Moffitt get a quality ride at his home track.

Update: Moffitt will start deep in the field with qualifying cancelled so expect heavy rostership in all formats.

Sammy Smith ($8,500)

I haven’t written up Sammy Smith too often this year. But he’s had some strong finishes with Jr. Motorsports. But when you drive for this team, you do need to collect wins. Top 10 finishes just won’t do it.

Smith has always been more comfortable on this type of track. He ran a part-time schedule in 2022 with Joe Gibbs Racing and finished 10^th in the season finale at Phoenix after qualifying on the front row and leading 10 laps.

In his lone full-time season with JGR in 2023, he won the Spring Phoenix race in dominating fashion (92 laps led), then led 40 laps at Richmond despite a poor finish, and then finished top five at New Hampshire with 15 laps led. He was also top 10 in the playoffs at both Martinsville and Phoenix.

Now to start his tenure with JRM, he doesn’t yet have a win. But he’s finished top 10 at Phoenix, Richmond, and Martinsville. Now baked into the top 10 finishes he has are four other finishes outside the top 30 but those haven’t really come on tracks like Iowa. There’s upside with this play and he doesn’t strike me as a driver that’ll draw a ton of attention when building NASCAR DFS lineups.

Update: Sammy Smith flashed top five speed in practice. This just further gives me confidence in the play, but with qualifying cancelled he'll start with PD on his side. Teammate Brandon Jones ($7,800) will start deeper in the field, but I do think Smith possesses more upside.

Riley Herbst ($8,100)

Herbst seems a bit too cheap especially for the speed he’s shown on the comparable tracks. And we’ve already written up his teammate, Cole Custer, so we have to like Herbst. Herbst broke through and got his first win last year and always has the upside to pop for a top five.

Is there risk with this play? Of course. There is always variance with Herbst, but I love the price tag we’re getting in relation to the equipment. 

Herbst went on a tear to finish up last year with five straight finishes of fourth or better, including great performances at Martinsville and Phoenix.

The results this year on the shorter tracks haven’t been great but the speed and running position indicate he may have a top eight up his sleeve for this race.

Update: Herbst appears to have top 10 speed in practice so hopefully he doesn't over-qualify the car.

Corey Heim ($8,000)

Heim will start just outside the top 20 with qualifying cancelled. This sam Hunt Racing car is good enough for a top 10 but it's been rather hit-or-miss at times so don't go wild with exposure.

Value Price Core Plays

Parker Retzlaff ($6,900)

Short. Flat. Track. This is Retzlaff’s bread and butter. Two years ago, when he made his debut in the Xfinity Series, he only ran a handful of races. But he did finish top 12 at Richmond and Martinsville that year.

In 2023, he had similar top 15 success on the comparable tracks but even found his way to some more top 10 finishes. Specifically, down the stretch to finish the season he finished 14^th (Vegas), 12^th (Homestead), 7^th (Martinsville), and 13^th (Phoenix). That Phoenix run should carry a little more weight than the others.

This year saw some struggles to start as he didn’t finish four of his first nine races. He does still have four finishes in the top 11 but this is really a great spot for him to go back to his roots and have a strong outing.

Update: Retzlaff starts inside the top 20 so I still like the play enough for tournaments and the starting spot may scare people away.

Josh Williams ($6,700)

Williams wrecked out of last week’s race at Sonoma. However, I’m more than comfortable going back to the well in this spot. Williams drives for Kaulig Racing and the organization is coming off back-to-back wins at Portland and Sonoma thanks to SVG.

But the whole squad has struggled this year. Williams at least qualifies poorly and moves up, and I’ve mentioned this before, but he has looked more comfortable in the car as the season has progressed. He grabbed a pair of top eight finished at Charlotte and Portland prior to last week’s wreck.

Additionally, Williams had a pretty impressive run at Richmond earlier in the year where he finished 12^th and the next week, he was 10^th at Martinsville.

The blueprint seems pretty simple. You can play him in all formats if he starts outside the top 25. But I would limit exposure to Tournaments if he starts anywhere from P15-P25. He is one of the few drivers in this range that we’ve developed some confidence in having top 12 equity.

Daniel Dye ($6,600) will be driving the 10-car for Kaulig Racing for this race. There’s some intrigue but he’s run three races for Kaulig this year and his best finish is 20^th at Dover. So temper expectations and keep an eye on him during qualifying.

Update: Both Jones and Dye will start deep in the field with the starting order based on the metric. Both are fine for cash games but might be seeing a limited ceiling for tournaments.

Anthony Alfredo ($6,400)

Alfredo can be difficult to gauge when you examine his career. He probably had no business getting a full-time season in the NASCAR Cup Series. And even last year he drove for a bad Xfinity Series team but still had some good runs on a variety of tracks.

This year there’s some stability with Our Motorsports. The team isn’t elite, but I also don’t think they’re complete garbage. 

He’s coming off a pair of very poor performances at Portland and Sonoma. Fortunately, neither of those tracks correlate to Iowa. He finished 10^th earlier this year at Phoenix and he was 15^th earlier in the year at Martinsville. 

I’m hoping we’re returning to a stretch that is more comfortable for Alfredo because he really doesn’t strike me as a driver that will be very popular. But from a DFS perspective he’s shown he can go off for 30-40 fantasy points on DraftKings and that is largely dependent on where he starts.

Brennan Poole ($5,800)

Brennan Poole is a very solid driver. But he’s stuck on bad teams because it appears sponsorship plagues him a bit. He does possess a pair of top five finishes on his resume at Iowa, but mind you, that came during his time with Chip Ganassi Racing.

Poole is doing everything in his power to churn out good finishes in this Alpha Prime equipment. On the year he has an average starting position of 25.6 and an average finish of 18.9 so he’s moving up nearly seven spots every race. We don’t say this about many drivers, but he’s managed to finish every race this year.

The results on the comparable tracks this year have been modest for Poole. However, he is still a driver that can qualify outside the top 25 for this race and once again move up through the field.

Update: He'll start inside the top 15 so the upside is a bit capped. We will likely only be playing him in tournaments.

HyVee Perks 250 NASCAR DFS Driver Pool