Food City 300 DFS Expert Picks & Lineups: NASCAR Xfinity Playbook

We have made it to the final race of the 2024 NASCAR Xfinity Series season! Connor Zilisch scored the win for Jr. Motorsports last week in his Xfinity Series debut! 

And he absolutely spanked the field leading half of the 90 laps last weekend and for a kid who just turned 18 years old, he showed a lot of poise for someone that out-dueled the likes of Shane Van Gisbergen and A.J. Allmendinger on a road course. 

But another race is in the books and another opportunity for a driver to lock themselves into the playoffs goes to waste.

The Xfinity Series Playoff Standings offer little drama. Any driver not in the top 12 for the playoff standings largely needs a win. So there’s nothing to really monitor in terms of points. 

But it is going to be fun to see which outsiders get off strategy and start taking more risks to win the race and get into the playoffs. Here are the latest Food City 300 DFS picks for Friday night’s race from Bristol Motor Speedway!

Food City 300 DFS Picks & NASCAR Lineups

Bristol plays host to the final regular season race for these drivers Friday night. And I won’t lie, I don’t think this is a race I want to play heavily on DraftKings. That’s not to say we’re mailing it in for this edition of the NASCAR Xfinity Series DFS picks. But the Xfinity Series certainly seems to provide more chaos than the Truck Series so there’s more variance to try and account for.

Over the last five races here, the Xfinity Series is averaging 8.6 cautions per race for 61.6 laps. So on average, over 20% of the race has been run under caution the last five years at Bristol.

But the good news is that we have a good idea how to construct lineups. One dominator likely won’t do. In the last five races at Bristol we’ve seen at least two drivers lead a minimum of 75 laps. And in some races, we’ve seen a third dominator chip in as well.

At the end of the day we do need those drivers to still finish well so in the Food City 300 DFS picks below, we identify two clear dominator candidates ahead of Friday’s practice and qualifying session.

Drivers are certainly likely to lose the lead lap. I’d expect half the field to finish at least one lap down. Regardless of that nugget, drivers can still move up and provide PD. In last year’s race, six drivers started P25 or deeper in the field and finished in the top 20. The 2021 race only saw three drivers hit that mark, but finishing just inside the top 25 was Josh Williams (started P30), Myatt Snider (started P36), Joe Graf Jr. (started P37), and C.J. McLaughlin (started P35). Even Kris Wright finished three laps down but grabbed a top 25 after starting P35.

Value plays can be just that. They do enough to hit value. But they’re likely to lose the lead lap at a track like this, and that possibly caps their ceiling. It’s a short track with high speeds. We shouldn’t be surprised to see some drivers lose the lead lap 15-20 laps into the race.

Definitely mix in the appropriate amount of two-to-three dominator plays in addition to one or two mid-range options that can simply score well. Don’t punt to too many value plays. It might be wise to try and cap it at two. I’ll largely be avoiding 3:3 stars & scrubs builds and opting for a little more balance.

Friday’s race is scheduled for 300 laps broken into stages of 85-85-130. This Playbook is being written ahead of practice and qualifying so it’s definitely more of a preview than anything else. But once the qualifying order has been finalized Friday afternoon, I’ll provide updates in RED in addition to the final driver pool table at the bottom of the article.

Food City 300 Practice Notes

Top Price Food City 300 DFS Picks

Justin Allgaier – DraftKings: $10,800

Allgaier is often considered the “King of Concrete” given his success on this surface. He’s only won two races this year, but he’s a contender most weeks and had a disappointing finish at Watkins Glen. The wins have him locked in for the playoffs, so while he has nothing to race for, he’s still a high upside play.

He won this race a year ago, and in his last seven races at Bristol he’s led at least 90 laps in each and even if he doesn’t get the win Friday night, there’s still plenty of top five equity.

Dover is a comparable track in terms of the racing surface (although it’s larger than Bristol), but that’s also a track Allgaier has had plenty of success at in his career. Over his last 13 races at Dover, he’s finished third or better in 10 with similar dominator potential. Update: He starts P4 and was fastest in practice.

Chandler Smith - DraftKings: $10,500

Smith laid down a wildly impressive qualifying effort. He didn't even need his second lap. Won the pole on his opening qualifying lap and shut it down after that. He was top five in single lap speed and then second in 10-lap average.

Cole Custer – DraftKings: $10,300

Custer doesn’t have a win at Bristol in seven career Xfinity Series races. However, he’s won the pole in three of his last five races dating back to 2018. Moreover, in any race he’s been on the pole he’s had a driver rating over 100.

In last year’s race he started on the pole and finished fourth with 109 laps led. He finished first and second over the first two stages.

We touched on Dover in Justin Allgaier’s section so it might be worth mentioning that Custer grabbed a top five at the Monster Mile and led 95 laps earlier this year. It looks like he’s getting bumped back up to the Cup Series in 2025 and he’s the defending Xfinity Series champion. He and Allgaier are clearly the top two dominator candidates ahead of practice and qualifying on Friday. Update: Custer was arguably the second-best in practice and starts on the front row. Good candidate to get some dominator points.

A.J. Allmendinger – DraftKings: $9,500

This isn’t a play I love by any means, but Allmendinger is consistent if nothing else. In three Xfinity Series races with Kaulig Racing (2020-2022) he finished top 10 in all three including a win in 2021. But he only led one lap in that race.

This has been a bit of an odd year for Dinger. He doesn’t have a win, but he’s locked into the playoffs on points at least. He’s coming off back-to-back third place finishes at Atlanta and Watkins Glen.

I will give him credit for getting out front more. That was my complaint about him most of the year was the lack of dominator points. But at Daytona and Atlanta (drafting tracks) he led a combined 75 laps and ran out front for five laps at Watkins Glen last week (a road course).

Bristol obviously doesn’t compare to any of those, but if he can start between P10-P15 and offer top three upside he only needs a few dominator points to be optimal.

Mid-Price Food City 300 DFS Picks

Dale Earnhardt Jr. – DraftKings: $8,800

How appropriate of DraftKings to price Dale Jr. at $8,800 for the one race he runs each year in the Xfinity Series. He’s even gone on record saying this is probably his last Xfinity Series race. So if you want one last shot at playing Dale Jr. in DFS, this might be it!

He was in contention in the final laps of last year’s race. He led 47 laps but finished 30^th as he had an ignition in the final laps. But later in the fall last year he grabbed a top five at Homestead. 

At Martinsville in 2022 he started P30 and finished 11^th, in 2021 he started P30 and finished 14^th at Richmond, and in 2020 he grabbed another top five finish at Homestead.

So overall, the results have been beneficial for DFS and he almost broke the slate in this race a year ago. My one concern is that he’s a team owner and he likely doesn’t want to get in the way of winning the race and keeping a driver out of the playoffs. But he can still have a great performance and provide value at an easy price tag.

Riley Herbst – DraftKings: $8,200

Herbst is already locked into the playoffs with a win, but Bristol is one of his better tracks. In three races with Stewart-Haas Racing, he’s finished eighth, fifth, and third while gaining at least five spots of position differential in all three races. Even during his final season with Joe Gibbs Racing, Herbst started P20 and grabbed a top 10 in 2020.

Herbst certainly has developed as a driver over the last calendar year with two wins on his resume. He’s been great at superspeedways (which isn’t a secret) but he’s capable of a top five finish here as we’ve seen in previous years.

Brandon Jones – DraftKings: $8,000

Jones is a home run-or-bust play Friday night for the Food City 300 DFS picks. He is 148 points of out the last playoff spot. He needs to win this race to get in.

He had some really good runs here during his tenure with Joe Gibbs Racing. In four races from 2020-2022 he had an average finish of 4.5 with a runner-up result in 2022.

Way back in the Spring of 2018 he finished sixth but led over 100 laps. In this race a year ago, his first Bristol race with Jr. Motorsports, he had a suspension issue and finished 34^th. That largely summarizes his two years at JRM.

As always, we never feel great about playing him in cash games. This is strictly a GPP play because his only chance to make the playoffs is with a win.

Ryan Sieg - DraftKings: $7,600

Sieg had an eventful qualifying lap. So at the time he went out, he actually laid down a P6 on his opening lap, but as he was going back into Turn 1 he got a bit loose but saved the car and inevitably just shut the car down as he immediately knew he wouldn't be able to top the first laps. And yet despite that, he still starts P12. I have my suspicions this car may have been set up by SHR, but I can't confirm anything. It's his last shot to make the playoffs and he flashed top 10 speed in practice… We also know he isn't afraid to take some risks and get on a different pit cycle for the sake of track position.

Shane Van Gisbergen - DraftKings: $7,500

I'm fine playing SVG in cash games. I really don't think I we want to take this risk in tournaments. He qualified P34 and didn't seem all too strong. But there's PD and the equipment is good and he pays off the price with a top 20. But without much Bristol experience, he could have a rough day and casual players might be drawn to the position differential.

Value Food City 300 DFS Picks

Parker Retzlaff - DraftKings: $7,300

Retzlaff had a weird qualifying lap. For starters, he was top 15 in practice speed and he's going to be scored from P27. I would assume he drops to the rear for an unapproved adjustment. As soon as he started his qualifying lap he had smoke coming from the car and it appeared to be tire rub on the left rear. It definitely impacted his run because he had no grip. So we do have PD from a car that flashed top 15 speed in practice.

Jeffrey Earnhardt – DraftKings: $6,700

I don’t have the highest opinion for this particular Earnhardt, but there are some instances I do like targeting him. He’s in the 26-car this week for Sam Hunt Racing and this is a car that Corey Heim has driven to good results as well. Now Heim is by far a better driver than Earnhardt. But at $6,700 for our Food City 300 DFS picks, I think Earnhardt has potential.

Earnhardt drove this same car two years ago at Bristol where he started P21 and finished 12^th. Even with lesser teams like JD Motorsports and VIVA Motorsports he’s finished in the top 12 at this track in the past decade.

Earnhardt’s run four races this year with Sam Hunt Racing and he’s mostly run at the drafting tracks. But this is Bristol, and he’s a value play in relatively respectable equipment, with plenty of experience at this track. Update: We may need to lay off this play as he qualified very well. The good news is that we have options. You can go down to Jeb Burton ($6,600; Starting P25) or try and go up to the safety net of Josh Williams ($7,000; Starting P32) if you feel so inclined.

Austin Green – DraftKings: $6,500

This recommendation is definitely not without risk. Green has finished 15^th or better in all five of his races this year. That’s outstanding. However, those have all been road courses, including a top 12 finish last week at Watkins Glen.

Bristol obviously is not a road course. The nice thing about road courses is the large amount of space for run-off. And longer green flag runs give drivers some space as well. Green won’t have that at Bristol.

Bristol will challenge Green as he’ll constantly be driving in traffic for 300 laps without the luxury of a road course’s run-off. So this is 100% a play we should monitor during practice on Friday. Is there speed in the car? How does he look driving in traffic? Is he likely to be bullied for track position? We should be asking ourselves these questions after qualifying.

Jordan Anderson Racing isn’t normally a team we target away from drafting tracks and road courses, but Green is affordable, yet incredibly risky.

Stefan Parsons – DraftKings: $5,900

Parson is stepping into an Alpha Prime car for this race, and this is great because he’s getting additional on-track time for Thursday night’s Craftsman Truck Series race.

Parsons has never really driven in good equipment, but he does tend to finish better than where he starts. In 2020 with BJ McLeod’s team, he started P32 and finished 23^rd. In 2021 with the same team he started P27 and finished 22^nd.

Now jump to 2022 with Alpha Prime Racing, he started P14 and finished eighth. And last year with SS Green Light Racing he started P35 and finished 19^th. It could simply be the case that this is a great track for him. Timmy Hill is kind of in the same boat but with the Truck Series. Strangely enough, both value plays tend to perform well here and keep their cars clean.

Food City 300 NASCAR Xfinity Series DFS Driver Pool