Explore The Pocono Mountains 225 DFS Picks & NASCAR Playbook: Pocono Raceway

The NASCAR Xfinity Series is back in action once again this weekend for 90 laps around the tricky triangle of Pocono Raceway! Last week, these drivers delivered some of the best racing we’ve seen all year at Chicago. Weather was on their side and while Shane Van Gisbergen got his third win of the year, Kyle Larson was racing him pretty hard early on.

The Xfinity Series isn’t running out of races as bad as the Truck Series is. We still have eight Xfinity Series races left in the 2024 regular season, but the break for the Olympics does loom large in two weeks. This race will have Josh Berry and William Byron from the Cup Series so that does skew pricing a little bit. But it’s shaping up to be a competitive race, and one where we can build our bankroll. Let’s take a look at the top NASCAR DFS drivers and lineup building strategies for Saturday afternoon’s Explore The Pocono Mountains 225!

Explore The Pocono Mountains 225 NASCAR DFS Lineup Picks

As a bit of a recap, we discussed the track layout in the NASCAR DFS Playbook for Friday’s Truck Series race. Matt Selz and I even discuss on this week’s NASCAR DFS Podcast how there really aren’t too many comparable tracks to Pocono outside of Indy’s oval and Michigan. But they don’t run Indy until next weekend and even then, the last few years they’ve raced on the road course over there. So truly, Pocono is a tough race to project in terms of comparable tracks and the data set is rather limited.

But a race is a race and we can certainly make some coin this weekend. As mentioned in the Playbook for the truck race, the “dominator approach” varies with each race this weekend. There were a maximum of 49 dominator points available in the Truck Series race. This race only has, at most, 63 dominator points available. That’s okay and I’ll certainly take a two-dominator approach in a couple lineups. But if only doing one-to-three builds I might lean into solo-dominator builds and target five other drivers that can finish and score well.

Last year’s race saw Josh Berry lead 51 laps from the pole and, in total, he had 23.1 dominator points. However, he finished 24^th and lost the value of those points with the negative position differential. Justin Allgaier had roughly 11 dominator points after starting P9 but again, he finished 23^rd. Last year’s winner, Austin Hill, started P11 and had just 1.4 dominator points.

The 2022 race similarly saw one primary dominator in Noah Gragson who led 43 laps and had a total of 17.5 dominator points. Justin Allgaier recorded about nine dominator points after starting from the pole. Interestingly enough, Ty Gibbs had 17 fastest laps even though he led just three laps in total as the runner-up.

The 2021 race again saw the polesitter run clean early on. Harrison Burton led 21 laps from the pole but he wrecked and finished 37^th, thus rendering his dominator points useless. Later in the race, Austin Cindric did get the win with 26 laps led and a total of 15.15 dominator points.

So again, the points come into play and matter if the drivers finish well. I’m taking a similar lineup construction approach to the Truck Series race. I’m targeting win equity and drivers that can score well by moving up. If I collect the dominator points, then that’s awesome. But the last three Pocono races in the Xfinity Series have seen an average of 20 caution laps which means we’re possibly losing about nine dominator points without those fastest laps.

Be on the lookout for updates Saturday morning once we’ve seen these cars on track and we know the starting order. Best of luck getting your lineups to victory lane!

Top Price Core Plays

William Byron ($12,000)

So I did see Byron's practice session (he was in the first group) and I saw his early qualifying run. More than happy to play him. The car looks strong, to no surprise. Despite having an early qualifying run he still managed to qualify P6. He shapes up well to lead laps and potentially win this race, but $12K is still a tough price tag to pay off.

Justin Allgaier ($11,000)

I’m tentatively skipping over William Byron ($12,000) because I do want to see how the car looks in practice. With dominator points carrying less weight for this race, I want to feel good about spending $12,000 on a driver. 

I’m okay committing to Allgaier ahead of Saturday morning’s practice and qualifying sessions. In five straight races at Pocono, he’s led at least eight laps. That doesn’t sound like much but I will lend my preference to a driver who has shown he can regularly run up front.

Allgaier led over 100 laps at Darlington and won, then followed that up with 40 laps led at Charlotte but he was caught up in a wreck. But the equipment is top tier and we saw Corey Heim crush value at $11,000 on Friday in a race with fewer laps.

Chandler Smith ($10,300)

I’m very high on Joe Gibbs Racing for the Cup Series. So, I want to throw a little love to their Xfinity Series teams as well because there’s obvious intrigue with any of these drivers. But I want to preview Smith.

We love targeting Smith on the short, flat tracks. But it’s because this isn’t a short track that I think most people completely disregard him for this race.

Smith won here in the Truck Series two years ago with 49 laps led and a 146.8 driver rating. He didn’t have the greatest runs last year on the comparable tracks. But he was with Kaulig Racing, and that’s a good team. However, JGR carries more funding and easily better engines.

Update: Still content playing Smith, but if you wanted a little more PD, Sam Mayer is a good pivot.

Sheldon Creed ($9,700)

We’re going back-to-back with JGR drivers in the top tier. I’ve already added notes on the equipment for this race and how having horsepower is beneficial. Joe Gibbs Racing cars will certainly have that.

Creed is still searching for his first Xfinity Series win. But he finished 11^th and fifth in two races at Pocono with Richard Childress Racing and he grabbed a pair of top 12 finishes at Michigan.

The irony of this play is that we want win equity in the top tier and Creed is still without a win in this series, and he’s only led 19 laps all year. To his credit, Creed did grab back-to-back top three finishes in the Truck Series back in 2020 and 2021 with driver ratings of 115+ in both races.

Update: I don't think he wins but he's on the pole and has a shot to grab a top five and lead a few laps.

Mid-Price Core Plays

Ryan Truex ($9,500)

Strictly a play for the PD. He's scored from P34 and has a JGR car. He should easily move up enough to pay off the price tag.

Riley Herbst ($9,300)

Herbt at this price tag feels weird, right? This is no doubt a steep tag for Herbst. However, he’s had some damn good runs here in his career. He’s raced here four times, but the wreck three years ago drags his average finish down a bit.

He grabbed a top five in this race last year and he was 12^th in 2022. Even in his final season with Joe Gibbs Racing, he grabbed a top 10 finish. So the track history checks out. But so does the wreck from 2021 because Herbst has a snack for that.

His results at Michigan (three straight top 10 finishes) indicate he performs better on the larger and faster intermediate tracks. We likely need a bit of position differential considering the price tag. But Herbst has a great ceiling for this race and he hardly ever carries significant rostership.

Update: Offers enough PD where he can pay off the price tag and I believe the practice speed showed there's top five potential.

Corey Heim ($8,700)

Heim won last night's race in easily the best truck for that race. He won't have the best car for this race. Sam Hunt Racing's cars don't always come through. However, Heim has enough talent to grab a top 10 in this car.

AJ Allmendinger ($8,500)

What’s this? A Kaulig Racing driver being mentioned and we’re not at a road course? You better believe it because he won’t be the only one! Despite the slight regression from Kaulig this year, Allmendinger has usually thrived on the higher horsepower intermediates.

In this series in 2021 and 2022, he recorded a driver rating over 100 in both races while grabbing a pair of top five finishes. He dominated Michigan in the summer of 2021 with a 143.3 driver rating, and 70 laps led in a winning effort.

I’m not opposed to teammate, Shane Van Gisbergen ($7,000), as he’s shown top 15 equity and usually qualifies poorly on the ovals. But the price is steeper than most weeks NASCAR is on an oval and we don’t really know what to expect from SVG on a higher horsepower track. At least with Dinger we’ve seen him crush it at this track type.

Update: Not to apply “top five upside” to another driver but Dinger qualified P10 and his comments indicate that he's very satisfied with the car and, these are his words, he thinks they have a top five car with potential to win.

Jesse Love ($8,300)

It never seems like DraftKings knows what to do with Love’s price tag. Last week he was a phenomenal play, which was great to see because I’ve long believed he’s an underrated road course driver. But he was $7,300 for that race. We’ve also seen him be priced as high as $9,500 when he won at Talladega.

We still don’t quite know what to expect from Love on the larger intermediates. However, Austin Hill has won here with Richard Childress Racing equipment and he’s priced at an even $10,000.

So Love might feel a little cheap and he tends to qualify better than others priced around him so he does present himself as a possible leverage option and he’s coming off back-to-back top five finishes.

Brandon Jones ($7,700)

Jones has run very well throughout his career at Pocono. Sure, he wrecked three times in five years with Joe Gibbs Racing. But overall, the average running position at this track is worth paying attention to.

In this race a year ago, he started and finished seventh but had a 119.9 driver rating and led a dozen laps. In 2022 with JGR, he finished 17^th but that doesn’t speak to how good he was here. He was top three in the first two stages and has just thrived on this higher horsepower track.

With Michigan being the best comparison for Pocono, he’s grabbed three straight top four finishes at that track. Obviously, there’s always risk with Jones because he’s a high variance driver. But I think we can probably play him regardless of where he starts.

If you want to get a little spicy, Josh Berry ($7,500) is a decent pivot and he’ll be in the 15-car for AM Racing. Hailie Deegan struggled to churn out good finishes in this car, but Joey Logano did drive it to a top 10 last week at Chicago. Berry has run well here in the past. He finished third in 2022 and even led 51 laps in last year’s race. It’s a big equipment downgrade but it’s a nice price tag if Cup Series drivers can come in and drive the car to a good finish.

Update: Starts P2 but throughout his career here, he's always been comfortable. I get that he's a risk no matter where he starts but if building 20+ lineups, you should get some exposure in tournaments.

Value Price Core Plays

Ryan Sieg ($6,800)

The results for Sieg at Pocono aren’t really all that great. He’s never finished inside the top 10 but in four of the last six races here he’s finished 17^th or better. At this price tag, you can kind of run with that.

Similarly at Michigan he’s finished between 12^th and 17^th on eight occasions. So we kind of know what to expect from him if he keeps the car clean. He’s actually only failed to finish one race this year (Dover) due to engine failure.

But Sieg does tend to provide a good floor. He’s put up 30+ fantasy points on DraftKings in 12 of 18 races this year and he usually starts P20 or deeper. So, if we can find him at a similar starting spot I like his chances of moving up.

Update: Sieg starts very high but he can still score well if he finishes around where he starts. He may not carry significant exposure either because of the starting spot. And what makes it even better is that he let it slip that he might just have a SHR car for this race.

Daniel Dye ($6,600)

I’ve been sleeping on Daniel Dye in the Craftsman Truck Series and I’ll admit when I’ve missed on a driver. During last night’s broadcast, Jamie Little was fawning over how much Daniel Dye has matured this year. And she isn’t wrong at all. This kid was a bit of a laughing stock a year ago, but in 2024 his only wreck in the Truck Series has been Daytona, and he finds himself in the playoff hunt.

Most importantly, he was running inside the top five for most of the race last night until a long pit stop in stage three cost him a lot of valuable track position. He still managed to finish 16^th.

For this race he’ll step into the 10-car for Kaulig Racing and I’m already quite high on AJ Allmendinger for this race as well. Dye scored his first top 10 in the Xfinity Series at Iowa last month, but if this growth and maturity translates to this race, then I have high hopes he can avenge last night’s performance because he arguably had a top three truck last night.

And while we’re on the topic of Kaulig Racing, Josh Williams ($6,200), just continues to crush value as a poor qualifier. Not that it’s a guarantee, but he tends to qualify poorly. This is a top 20 car and he moves up pretty well most weeks.

Anthony Alfredo ($6,000)

Adding Alfredo to the driver pool because the qualifying spot is justified. The car was sporty in practice although I missed his qualifying run. But he won't carry a ton of rostership and he helps diversify your exposure in the value tier.

Kyle Weatherman ($5,700)

Kyle Weatherman has raced here three times in the past in worse equipment and does have a pair of top 20 finishes on his resume. Even two years ago he finished 16^th when he was a constant value play driving for Jesse Iwuji’s team.

But Weatherman is a good enough driver and DGM Racing equipment is better than what he’s driven in the past. But they aren’t completely free from electrical issues or things of that nature. This team is great at setting up cars for road courses, but they are rather pedestrian elsewhere.

I do like the price a fair amount. He was caught up in an accident at Texas, but he finished 21^st or better at Vegas (21^st), Darlington (17^th), and Charlotte (11^th).

Update: Weatherman starts P21 so he's probably better suited for Tournaments.

Brennan Poole ($5,500)

Somewhere out there, I hope owners and teams are noticing what Brennan Poole is doing in awful equipment. Alpha Prime Racing is not top-notch gear, but that doesn’t stop Poole from contending for top 20 and top 15 finishes.

In 14 races this year, he’s returned at least 23 fantasy points on DraftKings. The problem is that he usually qualifies just outside the top 20 and most people assume he doesn’t offer much position differential.

And while that’s true, we should at least be honest with ourselves and have an understanding that he’s better than most drivers in this tier. He finished 29^th here last year with JD Motorsports but in previous races with Chip Ganassi Racing he grabbed a pair of top 15 finishes.

Update: He was forced to put down a qualifying lap to get a lap on his tires. Ultimately he goes to the rear for an unapproved adjustment and he'll have a pass through penalty. Even if he loses a lap, he can get it back as this track is plenty big enough and we know he has top 20 upside. He'll be scored from P27.

Explore The Pocono Mountains 225 NASCAR DFS Driver Pool