Baptist Health 200 DFS Expert Picks & Lineups: NASCAR Truck Series Playbook

The Craftsman Truck Series playoffs continue after a lengthy break. The last time we saw the trucks in action was about three weeks ago at Talladega. Grant Enfinger picked a great time to get his first win of the season and in doing so, he locked himself into the championship race at Phoenix. 

Homestead-Miami Speedway plays host this weekend to the next Truck Series race as another playoff contender looks to punch their ticket to Phoenix. Let’s take a look at this week’s schedule and lineup building strategies as part of the latest Baptist Health 200 DFS picks!

Baptist Health 200 DFS Picks & NASCAR Lineups

Homestead is widely regarded as one of the best tracks on the NASCAR schedule. Personally, it’s my favorite track because I love those tracks where we have tire wear, and they deliver multiple grooves. This track is no different. It’s 1.5 miles but it’s a perfect oval. It’s not one of these tri-ovals or quad-ovals like Vegas, Kansas, Charlotte, or Texas. We get symmetrical 18-20 degrees of banking on both sides of the track and we’ll also see significant tire wear.

Managing tires is definitely key and strategizing to have the freshest tires and track position late in the race will go a long way. Moreover, we have multiple grooves. Similar to Darlington, a track with tire wear and multiple grooves, you’ll see drivers gamble and attempt to run the higher line in an attempt to carry more momentum coming out of the corners.

The beautiful part of this weekend’s schedule is that we have practice and qualifying Friday afternoon. So by Friday night (or Saturday morning at the absolute latest), we’ll have this Playbook locked in and set with updates in RED and the driver pool at the bottom of the article.

This race goes green just after 12pm ET on Saturday and we have 134 laps broken into stages of 30-30-74. If I had to guess, I think we can once again take a two-to-three dominator approach. The Truck Series has raced here in the playoffs in 2022 and 2023. They didn’t race here at all in 2021, and in 2020 they raced early in the year. I’ll get to why that’s significant shortly.

In last year’s race we saw four drivers lead double-digit laps. This was how the top four played out:

1. Carson Hocevar (Started P2) – 11 laps led, 11.3 dominator points
2. Zane Smith (Started P7) – 34 laps led, 14.8 dominator points
3. Ben Rhodes (Started P21) – 22 laps led, 5.95 dominator points
4. Corey Heim (Started P8) – 57 laps led, 25.5 dominator points

And that’s just the top four. They only represent about 61% of the dominator points from that race. Spread across the rest of the spectrum were 11 fastest laps for Ty Majeski and 19 fastest laps for Chase Purdy. That’s the importance of tire wear here. The leader isn’t guaranteed to collect all the fastest laps. Whoever has the freshest tires will have the fastest truck. So I think we should be more inclined to chase three dominators to get as much win and dominator equity for this race.

2022 was relatively the same narrative. Ty Majeski won after starting P18 with 67 laps led and 36.1 dominator points. Especially with the PD he put up a monstrous score for a high tire wear track. But even Zane Smith, who finished second, added 15.95 dominator points. Ben Rhodes started P2 and had 11.5 dominator points and finished sixth. And once again, because of tire management and strategy, Grant Enfinger added 13 fastest laps and John Hunter Nemechek had 11. It’s another case of the dominator points, specifically the fastest laps, being rather spread out.

2020 was the outlier race. If I’m considering track history, I’m mostly looking at the last two races. Any spring/summer Homestead race gets thrown out in my opinion because Cup Series drivers were eligible for those races. Kyle Busch spanked the field in the spring of 2020 with a win and 46.15 dominator points.

But Saturday delivers a playoff race. So, we don’t have any Cup or Xfinity Series drivers in this field. It’s strictly just Truck Series drivers and we are in for a fun race. It’s a bummer the DraftKings contests aren’t as appetizing as normal, but regardless we can still win big on this slate.

Baptist Health 200 DFS Picks Practice Results

Baptist Health 200 at Homestead-Miami Speedway DFS Picks

As I offer up the usual practice notes, I will add that practice and qualifying were not televised. So unfortunately, I did not have eyes on the results but will still provide notes below based on the practice speeds Bob Pockrass tweeted out in addition to the qualifying results.

Corey Heim – DraftKings: $10,100

Heim is the most expensive driver for Saturday’s Truck Series race. Oddly enough, the next driver might be my preferred play in the top tier. But as always, we always give Heim consideration.

Heim has six wins on the season and four of those came on intermediate tracks. He won both Kansas races leading a combined 143 laps just in those two races. Kansas isn’t a direct comparison to Homestead, but both tracks offer multiple grooves and Heim dominated both races.

In 20 races this year, Heim has led 55+ laps in 8 of them. And honestly, he led 31 laps at COTA earlier this year which is wildly impressive for a Truck Series road race. At Darlington he led 77 laps but was caught up in a wreck.

It would surprise nobody if he led 55+ laps on Saturday. He led 57 laps in this race last year and won the first two stages, but he ultimately finished third. And in 2022 he started P19 and grabbed a top five. And the price tag, as the most expensive driver in the field, is actually manageable. Pricing is soft for this race, but a bit too aggressive for the Cup Series race. I can’t quite make sense of it, but Heim is obviously on our radar once again.

Update: Heim is on the pole despite some mediocre practice results. Either way, he does have a chance to lead plenty of laps and score a good finish.

Ty Majeski – DraftKings: $9,700

It shouldn’t be too much of a surprise that Majeski is my favorite play in the top tier, even with Heim being as great as he’s been this year. Majeski has raced here three times in his career and finished top 10 in every competition.

He started P4 last year and had a top five car most of the race but finished ninth. But two years ago in the playoffs, he won this race while leading 67 laps after starting P18. We already alluded to the massive performance on DraftKings and it translates well to his 143.1 driver rating that day.

Majeski got off to a hot start in the playoffs. He didn’t have a win in the regular season this year, but he won at IRP and Richmond. Richmond’s a shorter track, but it does have tire wear. Even at Darlington earlier this year, he grabbed a top five with 36 laps led.

He’s led 35+ laps in 9 of 20 races this year so I’m expecting many NASCAR DFS lineups starting with both Heim and Majeski and finding other ways to differentiate. Majeski is also only five points above the cut line over Rajah Caruth so he certainly needs to lock in a good result.

Nicholas Sanchez – DraftKings: $9,300

From here until the end of time I will always have a good laugh of Sanchez threatening to kill Matt Crafton at Homestead. If you have no idea what I’m talking about, Crafton (47 years old at the time) sucker punched Sanchez (22 years old at the time) after Talladega last year. And Sanchez threatened to kill him at Homestead. A bit aggressive, but nobody was really “in the right” regarding that altercation. Here’s a video if you need a quick laugh. But I digress…

This is technically Sanchez’s home track as he’s a South Florida kid. He’s raced here once and that was last year. He started P1 and finished 17^th so the negative PD sticks out like a sore thumb and obviously, there weren’t enough dominator points to compensate for the positions lost. In fact, he only had 1.7 dominator points that day.

But still, he did win the pole and we know Rev Racing, with the Spire Motorsports alliance, can bring a fast truck to the track. He doesn’t have the dominator potential of our first two drivers. But he can also score well if he finishes well and provides a little PD. He won Daytona to kick the year off, but he also won at Charlotte and finished second at Darlington. 

Update: Sanchez rolls off P4 but was fastest in single-lap and 10-lap speed in practice.

Mid-Price Baptist Health Stop 200 DFS Picks

Ben Rhodes – DraftKings: $8,500

Rhodes is a two-time Truck Series champion so it’s a bit of a bummer that he’s not in line to defend his title this year. But overall, he’s still a great play because Homestead is one of his favorite tracks. And yes, he’s a guy we can consider as a secondary/tertiary dominator to go with Heim and/or Majeski.

Rhodes had some ho-hum performances at Homestead for the longest time. Although back in 2017, he did start P2 and led 43 laps but finished 19^th and still had a 115.5 driver rating. However, since the Truck Series re-introduced Homestead on the playoff schedule, Rhodes has looked great. He finished sixth in 2022 with 37 laps led and last year he finished second (started P21) with 22 laps led. 

There’s definitely dominator potential here but I will add that we haven’t seen that upside this year. He’s led 16 laps all year and five of those came at Daytona (whoop dee doo) and the other 11 came at Gateway. But he did grab top five finishes at Charlotte and Darlington, and he’s priced in a way that even if he doesn’t hit that ceiling with dominator points, he can still score well with a good finish.

Update: Not a great qualifying effort from Rhodes as he starts P19, but he does make the path to paying off his price tag easier and he has performed well here in the past.

Taylor Gray – DraftKings: $8,000

This is exactly what I mean when I say pricing is soft for this slate. Look, I like Ben Rhodes for our Baptist Health 200 DFS picks. But this is an insulting price tag for Taylor Gray, who arguably has a better floor than Rhodes if we’re looking at this year’s results. Gray has only raced here once and that was last year where he finished 13^th. 

But Taylor Gray has just developed and made significant strides this year. It’s a big reason why he earned a promotion to the Xfinity Series next year with Joe Gibbs Racing. You have to obviously be a promising young driver if Joe Gibbs Racing is offering you a spot on the Xfinity Series roster, even if they’ve largely had a revolving door of drivers the last couple years.

Gray has had some bad results, but also many more top five finishes than Rhodes. He has seven top five results this year and, on average, he starts deeper in the field than Rhodes. So he usually offers more position differential.

The results at Kansas this year (both races) leave a little to be desired. But he had top five finishes at Vegas, Pocono, and Richmond (short track, but high tire wear). And he finished eighth at Darlington with 16 laps led. Even if you just solely look at his DraftKings profile, in 20 races this season he’s returned 40+ fantasy points in half of them, and for a while he was priced over $9,000. I’ll gladly jump on this discount even though it’s risky given that he didn’t do well at Kansas with its multiple grooves. But this driver and his elite equipment are discounted too much, and he’s 13 points below the cut line so he needs a good finish on Saturday.

Update: Obviously we can't utilize him in cash games because he qualified P2. He's a good GPP pivot off Heim, however. Heim is an elite driver, sure. But Gray did have better practice speed. It's just such a tall task to pass one of the best drivers in the field.

Stewart Friesen – DraftKings: $7,700

Friesen isn’t perceived as “safe” of a play as maybe Rhodes or Gray. However, he’s a veteran with plenty of experience. In the last two races at Homestead, he started P9 in both and finished 3^rd and 6^th respectively. If he delivers a similar performance on Saturday, he’ll absolutely pay off this price tag.

And it’s not like he lucked into those results. He was regularly running in the top five in both of those races. In 2017 and 2018 he finished 4^th and 7^th at Homestead so there’s definitely upside for this track. He’s not in the most elite equipment in the field, but it’s not even close to being junk.

This has been a frustrating year for Friesen. He only has five top 10 finishes this season and just one top five finish and that was his runner-up result at Charlotte. So there is risk here but he makes for a good GPP play based on the track history.

Update: Really strong tournament play here as Friesen has good track history and he starts P12 which should suppress ownership a little bit. He had the secod-best 10-lap average in practice.

Tanner Gray - DraftKings: $7,400

So because we didn't have practice and qualifying televised, I don't quite know why Gray didn't post a qualifying lap. And a Twitter search didn't deliver any answers either. My guess? He probably knows they're about to make an unapproved adjustment and would have to drop to the rear anyway. That's a bummer because the truck had top 12 speed in practice. Hopefully the issue doesn't hinder them for Saturday's race because he can crush value with a top 15 finish.

Value Price Baptist Health 200 DFS Picks

Chase Purdy – DraftKings: $7,300

Purdy is a fine value play that carries some top 10 equity. We don’t preview him much because he certainly has “bust” potential. But last year with Kyle Busch Motorsports, he started P14 and finished 11^th. That’s a solid day and he added 19 fastest laps.

But with KBM being sold to Spire Motorsports, Purdy is still in good equipment. Purdy finished 6^th at Darlington, 13^th at Charlotte, and he was 11^th a couple weeks ago at Kansas. If his team strategizes similar to last year, there’s a chance he’s running a few laps on fresh tires and collecting some dominator points along the way.

Update: So Purdy qualified P17 which is fine, but the practice speeds indicate he might just have a fringe top 20 car. I don't love that, but he's not a complete fade because the equipment is still fine and he has had good performances on comparable tracks this year.

Matt Crafton - DraftKings: $6,900

I'm honestly a little disappointed in myself for initially missing that Crafton was priced under $7,000 for this race. Egg on my face, but he also starts P22 and we know the truck is good enough for a top 10 finish. For context, the cheapest he had been at any point this year was $7,700 so I'm really not sure what DraftKings is doing. But this is a potential trap as they bait us into this value play. Crafton started in this same spot a year ago and finished 7th. To add to that, he has finished 9th or better in nine straight races at Homestead.

Matt Mills – DraftKings: $6,200

It was announced on Wednesday that Mills and the 42-truck would get a new crew chief. Mike Shiplett takes over as crew chief with Jon Leonard going to the 44-truck. Shiplett has experience as a crew chief at both the Cup and Xfinity Series levels. In 2019 he was the crew chief for Cole Custer in the Xfinity Series where they won seven races and finished second in the championship standings. He was then Custer’s Cup Series crew chief from 2020-2022.

Last year he was the Xfinity Series competition director at Richard Childress Racing. So while the equipment and driver may not stand out to us, this is a significant upgrade for Niece Motorsports to get a crew chief with Shiplett’s experience after he was working for the 32-truck and Bret Holmes earlier this year.

The downside is that Mills isn’t great, and he’s never raced at Homestead. So maybe I’m overhyping the crew chief upgrade. But I will at least note that Mills did finish 11^th at Darlington and he finished 4^th at Charlotte. For that reason, in conjunction with Shiplett joining the team, I’m fine getting exposure to Mills in tournaments.

Update: Starts P24 which is certainly a bit high, but let's see if he can find some magic on Saturday with a new crew chief.

Timmy Hill – DraftKings: $5,500

I’m just going to go with Timmy Hill to close out the Baptist Health 200 DFS picks. There were a couple other value plays that caught my eye, but they’re a little more expensive and don’t offer as good of a floor as Hill given this price tag.

I’ll obviously update the value plays once we see practice and qualifying. However, Hill is just a nice safety blanket most weeks. Homestead is an okay track for him, but he’s only raced here twice. Way back in 2015 he started P25 and finished 21^st. Two years ago he started P21 and finished 20^th.

But for the 2024 season he has an average starting position of 26.7 and an average finishing position of 21. We are banking on a similar starting spot because if he starts inside the top 25 we don’t have as safe of a floor. He finished 22^nd (started P30) and 23^rd (started P32) in the two Kansas races, and he finished 13^th at Darlington. We’ll have to pivot if he isn’t offering that kind of PD, but for as cheap as he is he can allow us to fit multiple dominators into our lineups.

Baptist Health 200 Craftsman Truck Series Driver Pool