AMEX Credit Card 300 DFS Expert Picks & Lineups: NASCAR Xfinity Playbook

We have just three races left in the 2024 NASCAR Xfinity Series season. After going all season long without a win and very few top five finishes, A.J. Allmendinger won at Las Vegas last weekend, thus securing his spot in the championship race at Phoenix. He has long said that he wants to win a championship in NASCAR. And he’s made it clear it doesn’t matter if it’s at the Xfinity level or Cup Series. And now he gets his opportunity before he goes back up to the Cup Series next season.

But for this weekend, we head to Homestead-Miami Speedway for some outstanding racing at one of NASCAR’s best tracks. Here are the AMEX Credit Card 300 DFS picks and lineup building strategies for Saturday afternoon’s Xfinity Series race!

AMEX Credit Card 300 DFS Picks & NASCAR Lineups

NASCAR heads to South Florida this weekend as we have just three races left across all three major NASCAR series. If you haven’t already, I highly suggest checking out the opening sections of the Craftsman Truck Series Playbook for Saturday’s race as well. I touch upon some interesting lineup building strategies and how dominator points get distributed for a race like this.

Homestead-Miami Speedway has fallen on the Xfinity Series playoff schedule the last two years. Until about five years ago, this track was where they’d race for the championship. And then it changed to Phoenix so then Homestead was briefly run in the spring of 2021 and twice in the summer of 2020 during the COVID year. In my opinion, this track deserves two races each year because it’s that good and it should once again host the championship race.

Where the Xfinity patterns differ from the Truck Series is that we’ve had one or two very clear dominators for this race. Last year, Cole Custer started on the pole and led 114 laps, but he finished 13^th. But his 40.65 dominator points offset the negative PD enough. Sam Mayer (started P13) won the race with 22.3 dominator points. Similar to the Truck Series race, we did see six drivers with at least 10 fastest laps which emphasizes the point about fresh tires mattering and how those precious dominator points can spread out more.

Back in 2022, Noah Gragson started P2 and avenged his 2021 disastrous race at Homestead by leading 127 laps and 44.8 dominator points. Even in that 2021 race where he wrecked with three laps to go, he still had 17.95 dominator points. But in 2022, the laps led were largely consolidated to Gragson (127) and Trevor Bayne (46) while Austin Hill led 19 laps to his credit. But the fastest laps were spread out while six drivers again logged at least 10 fastest laps, and A.J. Allmendinger wasn’t far behind with 9.

So most of my lineups for this race will largely be built around two dominators, while hoping to find some mid-tier plays that can get fastest laps on fresh tires.

The Xfinity Series will have a full practice session late Friday afternoon and then qualifying will be at 5:15pm ET. Check back for updates in RED Friday evening for the finalized driver pool for the AMEX Credit Card 300 DFS picks.

AMEX Credit Card 300 DFS Picks Practice Notes

Top-Price AMEX Credit Card 300 DFS Picks

Cole Custer – DraftKings: $10,800

Cole Custer kicks off the AMEX Credit Card 300 DFS picks and for good reason. Sure, he finished outside the top 10 in last year’s race, but at the end of the day he still led over 100 laps. He finished as the runner-up in 2018 and 2019 with 110 laps led combined in those races. And back in 2017 he won this race with 182 laps led and a perfect driver rating of 150.

Custer is currently third in the playoff standings as he sits 16 points above the cut line but there are definitely some hungry drivers behind him. The defending Xfinity Series champion only has two wins on the year (Pocono and Bristol) but we know there’s dominator potential. He led 31 laps at Vegas last week and 48 laps in a runner-up effort at Kansas about a month ago.

Aric Almirola - DraftKings: $10,500

I was initially going to go with Chandler Smith, who won the pole. And then I was going to go with Sheldon Creed, who starts P2. But based on the practice speeds and long run, I give Almirola an edge over both and he starts P3. Smith was quick on his qualifying lap but his longer run metrics are concerning. Creed was better than Smith in the longer run but it was Almirola who posted the best 10-lap average. A lot of credit can go to JGR though. It's an impressive feat to qualify all three cars at the top.

Sam Mayer – DraftKings: $10,000

Mayer is a relatively unlikable driver as he doesn’t really seem to care who he wrecks or what chaos he can cause, so long as he’s going to victory lane. For DFS we obviously like that, but I’m guessing it’s why Jr. Motorsports is happy to let him leave after this year (in addition to funding issues possibly).

But Mayer has a good resume here. In his debut at Homestead two years ago he started P6 and finished 5^th and regularly ran in the top 10 all day. Then last year he started P13 and won with 46 laps led. He also desperately needs a good run. He’s 23 points below the cut line heading into this race.

One concern I have is that he’s failed to finish seven races this year, but he has the ability to manage his tires as he grabbed a top five finish in the first Darlington race this season.

Justin Allgaier – DraftKings: $9,800

This one should obviously give us some pause. And that’s shocking to say because Allgaier is one of the best drivers in the field and is normally such a safe play most weeks. But in his last six races at Homestead, he has just one top 10 finish. In 15 career races at this track, he’s led just 15 laps and eight of those came last year, and he’s never grabbed a top five here.

So why include him in the Playbook if he’s struggled here? As bad as it’s been for Allgaier at this track, he’s performed very well through his career at the comparable tracks. And he manages his tires incredibly well.

He won the first Darlington race earlier this year with 119 laps led. At the second Darlington race, he started P20 and finished 10^th. He also grabbed a win at Michigan over the summer and just last week he led 42 laps at Vegas and finished third. He’s 32 points above the cut line, but really needs to find some magic this weekend at a track he’s largely struggled at. He cannot afford a bad showing here because that would be disastrous for his chances at qualifying for the championship race.

Mid-Price AMEX Credit Card 300 DFS Picks

Austin Hill – DraftKings: $9,300

I’m going to skip over A.J. Allmendinger ($9,700). He’s normally a great play at Homestead, but since he’s locked up his spot in the championship race, he can mostly focus on Phoenix. Plus, he’s running the Cup Series race on Sunday and dare I say that he cares more about that race this one?

For those reasons, let’s preview Austin Hill. Hill mostly catches our eye for any track where there’s drafting (Daytona, Talladega, and Atlanta). But in his Xfinity Series career, he still has upside on intermediates. He has a win at Vegas on his resume, and he finished in this race two years ago with 19 laps led. Even last year he finished fourth.

The results haven’t been great, but they’ve been improvements for Hill. He finished 4^th at Vegas-1 and 10^th at Vegas-2. Even at Kansas he finished 7^th. Sure, he doesn’t have great chances to lead an abundance of laps like other drivers. But he has 20 career fastest laps at this track and he’s only eight points below the cut line.

Update: He will be a trendy PD play. The car isn't awful, but as he was coming out of turn 2 he lost grip and got slightly loose. It was enough to ruin the qualifying run so he starts outside the top 15.

Riley Herbst - DraftKings: $8,900

It looks as if Herbst brought a pretty fast car and nobody is going to want to play him in this spot. Herbst starts P8 so he's in play for GPP's. Priced around him are drivers offering more PD. I really like the speed in Herbst's car. He had the third-best single lap in practice and the second-best 10-lap average just behind Aric Almirola. Even the broadcast was commenting that Herbst's eighth lap in the run was still faster than most of the field's fastest lap.

Ryan Truex - DraftKings: $8,700

Tread carefully here because Truex is priced as if he's in a JGR car this weekend. He does have two wins on the year but they did come with JGR. For this race he'll be in the 26-car for Sam Hunt Racing. But he starts P22 and does have the luxury of position differential on his side.

Parker Kligerman – DraftKings: $8,000

Kligerman has put up 50+ fantasy points on DraftKings over the last two races and yet, the price tag hasn’t budged. He was screwed out of a win two weeks ago at the ROVAL, but that didn’t deter him last week. He grabbed a top five finish at Vegas and had 11 fastest laps.

In this race year ago, Kligerman started P10 and finished seventh. Even in his last couple races at Homestead in the Truck Series he finished 9^th (2022) and 10^th (2019). So we get a veteran driver in decent equipment that has experience on these high tire wear tracks, and better yet, he can manage his tires. He finished 6^th at Darlington-1 and 13^th at Darlington-2. It would be great if we could squeeze some PD out of him, but even in last year’s race he still delivered 13 fastest laps.

Update: Don't love him as much since he starts P7. He can definitely finish there but we do need him to get off cycle and get some fastest laps because he's a bit of a fringe top five driver if I had to guess.

Brandon Jones – DraftKings: $7,800

Brandon Jones did what we probably should’ve expected him to do last week. I loved him ahead of qualifying, but really had to keep expectations in check once he won the pole. And sure enough, he went backward and finished 17^th with just five dominator points.

But Homestead is another track where Jones, strangely enough, performs well at. He’s raced here nine times in his career and his worst finish is 15^th (2016 and 2022). If I could bet him to finish 8^th I absolutely would because he’s done that four times.

But he also has two runner-up finishes at Homestead (2020 and 2021) during his time with Joe Gibbs Racing. So he’s cheap enough where he has a path to pay off the price tag with a good finish. But I don’t think he has the potential to get off-cycle and get fastest laps like Hill and Kligerman can.

Update: Not sure what happened with his qualifying lap. But the practice notes indicate he has a top 10 car and he rolls off P20. If you opted to fade him or go light, that might not be such a bad idea. Brandon Jones chalk is never a good thing, but track history is on his side for this race.

Value AMEX Credit Card 300 DFS Picks

Parker Retzlaff – DraftKings: $6,800

This is just another one of those tracks where you look at Retzlaff’s results and think, “How?” Now the sample size is very small (two races) but last year he started P16 and finished 12^th. In 2022 he started P29 and finished 16^th. For a kid who comes from a short, flat track background he’s done well here so we’re looking for him to provide something like that once again.

For what it’s worth, he’s definitely struggled at Darlington, especially this year. And he’s failed to finish one-third of the races in the 2024 season. So let’s temper expectations and see how he looks in practice. We really want PD out of this play. He’s been good here, but the equipment has not held up well this year.

Update: Retzlaff is still worth playing in tournaments, but he qualified way too damn well at P11. There are safer options in this range if you can afford them. You can pay up to Josh Williams ($7,000; Starting P24) or pay down to Anthony Alfredo ($6,700; Starting P18).

Matt DiBenedetto - DraftKings: $6,600

This is never ideal, but Matty D does start dead last at P38. He failed inspection three times and didn't post a qualifying lap. He didn't even post a practice lap. So tread carefully here. There is a good floor if the car actually starts and he's able to race. He would basically pay off the price tag with a top 25 finish.

Jeb Burton – DraftKings: $6,300

We’ll go with Retzlaff’s teammate in the value section of our AMEX Credit Card 300 DFS picks. Burton’s results here throughout his career have been good. Have they been great? Yes, at times.

He’s raced here with four different teams. In 2019 he ran with Jr. Motorsports where he started P18 and finished 9^th. In 2021, with Kaulig Racing, he started P5 and finished 4^th. Then the equipment downgrades came. In 2022, with Our Motorsports, he started P21 and finished 19^th. Then last year with his current team, Jordan Anderson Racing, he started P28 and finished 20^th. So at the very least, he hasn’t gone backwards at this track.

Burton has also fared better on the higher tire wear tracks this year compared to Retzlaff. Burton finished 16^th and 17^th at both Darlington races and he’s finished more races as well. So for the discount, he might be a safer play than his teammate.

Brennan Poole – DraftKings: $5,800

Brennan Poole, once again, will likely be one of my favorite value plays on the slate. On several occasions this year, Poole has started deep in the field and just done enough to move up and give us 5X-6X value on DraftKings. Even last week at Vegas, he started P32 and finished 21^st for 32 points on DraftKings. A month ago at Kansas he started P28 and finished 18^th for 35 points. And once again, he’s under $6,000 on DraftKings.

On the higher tire wear tracks he finished 20^th in both Darlington races. Specifically at Homestead, he started P29 and finished 19^th last year and started P24 and finished 14^th in 2022. And he did that with JD Motorsports which is maybe comparable to the equipment he’s currently in. But there’s a reason I’m always plugging Poole in. He’s a good driver that has just struggled with funding throughout his career. So while he’s in sub-par equipment, he has enough talent to pull off a good result.

AMEX Credit Card 300 NASCAR Xfinity Series DFS Driver Pool