Just two races are left before the NASCAR Cup championship in Phoenix. This week’s test? The Straight Talk Wireless 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. It’s one of the favorites among drivers and fans alike thanks to the layout and the way the cars race.

 

 

 

That’s only improved in the Next Gen era. What’s this meant for Straight Talk Wireless 400 best bets though? What are the NASCAR picks for the Straight Talk Wireless 400 on Sunday? Do we take anything from Las Vegas last week or Kansas a few weeks ago? All of that plus the best winner predictions and prop bets in our Straight Talk Wireless 400 best bets below!

Keep in mind we had the winner Joey Logano and a handful of top-10 finishes in this piece last week for Vegas. At the Roval the week before, we hit 3 top-10 finishes and barely missed a top-5. We’re streaking at the right time of the year to be dialed in for NASCAR picks and NASCAR playoff drivers.

Straight Talk Wireless 400 Betting Trends

Long thought of as one of the perfect NASCAR tracks, Homestead-Miami is always putting on a great race. How? And what does that mean for our Straight Talk Wireless 400 predictions? It comes down to a combination of the shape of the track and the banking that allows for the race to be nearly entirely in the driver’s hands.

The multi-groove layout and the straight, rather than curved, straightaways like on tri- or quad-ovals mean that a driver with a fast car can win from nearly anywhere in the field. Over the last 10 races here, we’ve seen drivers win from the pole all the way back to P31 in the starting grid. That being said, we’re still favoring the driver who starts in the top-10 or closer in the grid in our Straight Talk Wireless 400 best bets since they’ve won 7 of the last 10 races here.

The other thing that factors into the racing here is tire wear. Homestead is one of the highest tire wear tracks on the schedule and so tire management and finding speed late in runs is also key to winning. When we’re looking for Straight Talk Wireless 400 predictions, we need to be looking for drivers who not only do well at Homestead, but also the similar tracks in terms of style of racing. 

Which tracks? This week we’re looking at Las Vegas, Kansas, Darlington, and a bit of Charlotte and Texas thrown in. Those all tend to be multi-groove tracks with some degree of tire wear in the intermediate category. If you’re looking for prop bets, moving up into the top-10 here is reasonably common. Over the last 5 races here, 46% of the top-10 finishers have started P13 or worse.

 

 

 

Straight Talk Wireless 400 Best Bets: Winner Predictions

Kyle Larson +330 (DraftKings)

I’m not usually one to like this short of odds for a race winner bet, but it’s Larson and Homestead. What does that mean? Well, Larson, in the Next Gen car, has won at Miami and wrecked out last year on lap 214 after leading 94 laps (the most in the race). 

This is the sort of track that Larson specializes at. High tire wear, loose cars, and running the high line are all what sees him at his best. After a ho hum race at Vegas last week, expect to see him throw everything at Homestead to lock into the championship.

Tyler Reddick +650 (BetMGM)

Another guy who specializes on this style of track, Reddick is looking to get past his rough day at Vegas. After winding up on his roof in the infield, Reddick is close to needing a win to make the championship 4 at Phoenix. 

That race could very well come at Homestead, a track he’s been very fast and competitive at in his career. In 2 of the 3 Next Gen races at Homestead he’s finished P2 and P3 with a wreck in between. His driving style, near-need to win, and success make him a threat on Sunday.

Christopher Bell +700 (FanDuel)

Bell dominated the Vegas race in a way except for winning. That gives him a ton of motivation to show up this weekend and find a way to win the race, much like last year. That’s right, he won this race a year ago to lock into the Championship 4 and that’s most certainly his goal for the Straight Talk Wireless 400 as well. 

The Toyotas have shined for a few years at this style of track and given Bell’s dirt track background, he’s just as good as Larson when the cars are loose and sliding everywhere.

 

 

 

William Byron +800 (FanDuel)

It’s a heck of a run for Willy B right now. Kansas, Talladega, the Roval, and Vegas all saw Byron finish P4 or better while leading at least a lap in 3 of the 4. Momentum can be a huge thing in the playoffs but so can track history. Byron has that in spades too. 

He won this race 2 years ago and has the best average finish here over the last 4 races (6.5). It’s hard to look past his current form and track form and say no to this value when making Straight Talk Wireless 400 best bets.

Martin Truex Jr. +2000 (FanDuel)

We’ve been thinking for a little while now that Truex would simply be coasting into retirement. That’s not been the case though, especially at intermediate tracks. The 19-car was fast at both Kansas (P3) and Vegas (P6). 

Homestead is a track that Truex has historically done very well at, winning a title here and should’ve won a second if not for a bad pit stop. When you couple his history at the track, his throwback paint scheme this week, and the recent speed in similar races, Truex is a threat to nab a final win at Homestead-Miami Sunday.

Ross Chastain +2500 (BetRivers)

Chastain has been rolling on the intermediates of late. He has 5-straight P11 or better finishes and 4-straight P8 or better runs including a win. Chastain was dominant at Kansas a few weeks ago and solid at Vegas last week. 

If that kind of speed shows up in Miami, a track he’s posted a P2 finish at 2 races ago, would could be seeing him in Victory lane. Don’t forget Chastain has won playoff races as a non-playoff driver and he’s not going to move to the side just to let a playoff driver pass.

 

 

 

Homestead-Miami Speedway Predictions 2024 - Long Shot Winners

A.J. Allmendinger 100-1 (BetRivers)

It’s been a minute since Allmendinger has been in a Cup car on an oval sure. But, the runs at Homestead in the Next Gen era have been very good with 2 top-5 finishes in the 2 races. 

The Kaulig cars haven’t been great in the Cup series this year but expect this to be a test run for what they have for him in the Cup series next year at a track he’s done well at in the past. He’ll need late chaos for this to hit and some luck, but isn’t that the same for every long shot?

 

 

 

NASCAR Picks: Straight Talk Wireless 400 Props - Homestead-Miami Speedway

Martin Truex Jr. Top-10 Finish -134 (BetRivers)

Despite most people thinking he’d just be mailing things in at this point, Truex is still running top-10 at intermediates with regularity. 

In the 8 similar intermediate races this year, Truex has 4 top-10s and 5 top-12s. At Homestead in the Next Gen era, he’s posted 2 P6 or better finishes.

Denny Hamlin -125 vs. Chase Elliott (DraftKings)

Hamlin has been a consistent top-8 finisher at intermediate tracks this year and especially lately. Elliott has been consistent too but not elite level consistent. 

In the 8 similar races to Homestead this year, Hamlin has Elliott beat in 6 of them and has him bettered in 2-of-3 Next Gen Miami races. The 11-team is simply clicking better than the 9-car team and we’ll take the bet they do it again Sunday.

 

 

 

Ross Chastain Top-10 Finish +100 (BetRivers)

It’s been 5 straight races with P11 or better finishes at intermediates for Chastain including 4 straight top-10s. Chastain has also nabbed a top-10 at Homestead in the Next Gen era and was running top-10 last year before having a tire issue that ended his day on lap 221. 

He’ll be pushing for a good finish on Sunday to help his championship chances and that should lead to a top-10.

A.J. Allmendinger Top-10 Finish +195 (FanDuel)

Much like the reasoning for him being a long shot winner, Allmendinger has run top-5 here in 2 straight races and has been decent at ovals this year. 

If he shows up with the same or similar speed and rhythm this weekend as past Homestead races, this could hit in our Straight Talk Wireless 400 best bets with a nice payout.