The 2024 NASCAR Cup Series rolls into the betting capital of the world — Las Vegas. The Pennzoil 400 is Sunday, March 3rd at the first pure intermediate track of the season in Las Vegas Motor Speedway. 

The track on the outskirts of the Las Vegas Strip holds a predictable track history, even in the Next Gen car, which is a welcomed relief after two chaotic races. We’re coming off a big week last race and we’re looking to keep the hot picks coming in the desert. 

 

What does our NASCAR betting strategy look like for Las Vegas? Are we taking long shot bets this week? What do track trends show for prop bets and matchups? All our NASCAR Pennzoil 400 best bets plus winner predictions and the best prop bets for Vegas can be found below!

Las Vegas Motor Speedway Trends

Perhaps the most common refrain we’ll hear from drivers this week is “track position is king”. That’s been the case here for a while and hasn’t really changed in the Next Gen era; the last four races at Vegas. We’re looking at trends and how the race flow has gone. 

In those races, 65-percent of drivers to finish in the top-10 have started in the first seven rows of the grid, aka P14 or better. Passing can happen further back in the field but getting top-10s starts with qualifying generally speaking.

In terms of wrecks and cautions, Vegas is fairly standard for an intermediate. Last year, after they sorted out the tire issues that plagued the first year of the Next Gen car, the two Vegas races averaged 5.5 cautions a race. That includes the stage break cautions. That’s not a whole lot of chances to re-rack the field and use pit strategy.

 

Pennzoil 400 Betting Strategy for 2024

So, knowing what we know about the trends, how do we approach the betting strategy for these Pennzoil 400 best bets? Well, the first thing we’re looking for, like most tracks, is solid track history or upward trends in performance. 

Drivers that have shown consistency in the Next Gen era are the ones we’re looking at this week. This is the first intermediate race of the year so we can’t really use a lot of what we’ve seen on track thus far for judging upside heading into Vegas. 

Going into the Pennzoil 400 when we’re betting winner predictions, we want to focus on the drivers starting in the first seven rows of the grid or those who are likeliest to start there. For match ups, we’re leaning on track history between the two drivers and recency bias between the two makes, if they’re different.

All odds listed in our Pennzoil 400 best bets are from DraftKings unless otherwise noted in parentheses.

 

NASCAR Pennzoil 400 Winner Predictions

Kyle Larson +450

Larson has a win and two P2 finishes in the last four races here. He’s also spent a lot of time running at the front of the pack even when he hasn’t won. That combination has Larson, rightfully so, as the favorite this week. The speed was in the 5-car at a 1.5-mile track last week and there should be no reason why he doesn’t have race-winning speed again this weekend in Vegas.

William Byron +900

If we’re looking for a value in a winner pick, Byron fits that description. Byron has nearly as good a history here as Larson with a win and three top-10s to his credit. In fact, Byron has a better average finish and average running position than Larson does. The consistency of Byron makes his odds at twice what Larson’s are a very nice value for a co-favorite based on history.

Tyler Reddick +1300 (BetMGM)

It’s been three top-eight finishes for Reddick in the Next Gen era at Vegas. The top-five came in his previous RCR ride, but the Toyotas of 23XI have been very good at intermediate tracks the last two years. I don’t want to say that Reddick is due for a win, but this has the setup for Reddick to have a big day and lock into the playoffs based on similar tracks and track history.

Ross Chastain +1400 (Caesars)

This has arguably been Chastain’s best track in the Next Gen car. Since 2022, Chastain has finished P3, P2, P12, and P5 in the race here and has the second-best average running position to go with the best average finish. 

The running position means he’s been in the top-five a lot throughout the races and the finishes aren’t simply flukes. Being that close to the front that often, in addition to leading the most laps in a race, means he’s got a great shot to park it in victory lane by Sunday evening.

Joey Logano +1400 (BetMGM)

Logano’s history at Vegas in the Next Gen is a bit checkered to be sure. He’s won, finished P14, P15, and P36. That being said, he was on the pole when he wrecked out to finish P36 and the 22-car has been fast to start the year thus far. Logano has managed to qualify inside the top-10 in each of the last four races which is always helpful here as track position is king at Vegas. If he can keep the car clean for once, he should be a threat late to win.

Alex Bowman +2200 (BetMGM)

Bowman hasn’t done much over the last half a season plus the start of this year. However, he has had good runs at Vegas previously with a win and a P3 finish. Granted he did post a P35 in the other and missed a race due to a broken back. If he’s going to start finding his groove though, Vegas is a pretty good place to start with his good history and his team’s continued success at the track in the Next Gen car.

 

NASCAR Prop Bets: Pennzoil 400 from Las Vegas Motor Speedway

Ross Chastain Top-5 Finish +220 (Caesars)

This is my favorite prop line of the weekend. Chastain has been fast at both Daytona and Atlanta and is coming to a track he’s done great at. How great? His average finish in the last four races here is 5.5 with three top-fives. We used the same logic with Daniel Suarez last week so we’re doubling down on that reasoning.

Kyle Larson Top-5 Finish -135 (BetMGM)

Outside of the race he wrecked out of, Larson has finished no worse than P2 in the other three races. Larson, and Hendrick as a whole, has figured out how to race Vegas and the results show that. Considering he’s the heavy favorite for the race, we’ll take not such a negative line for a guy who’s pulled this off 75-percent of the time.

Martin Truex Jr. Top-10 Finish -150 (BetMGM)

In the four Next Gen race here, MTJ has finished inside the top-10 in all four. He’s long been a king of intermediate tracks and Vegas has been no different in consistency. Truex was quick last week at the 1.5-mile Atlanta, granted in a plate setup, but the speed at that distance was still good see coming to this intermediate. Even though these are decently negative odds, we’re still getting $50 back for every $100 bet.

Bubba Wallace -125 vs. Ty Gibbs

This has been a better track for Wallace than it has been for Gibbs. In the three races he’s run here, Gibbs has yet to finish better than P22 while Wallace has finished P13 or better twice in a row. While they’re both Toyotas, I believe in the speed and setup Wallace has shown here more than what Gibbs has shown.

Noah Gragson Top-10 Finish +500

People love long shots in Vegas so here’s one. Gragson finished P11 in his first race here in the Cup Series. In the Xfinity Series races he was quite good at the higher-to-moderate tire wear tracks of which Vegas is one. This one isn’t as confident a pick as others, but the history and logic is still there. Still, it’s pivotal that he qualifies solidly on Saturday.

 

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