.Next up on the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series schedule is the Enjoy Illinois 300 at Gateway, otherwise known as World Wide Technology Raceway. The track, just across the Mississippi River from St. Louis, is one of the more unique tracks on the schedule due to the shape, distance, and flatness. Gateway has been a staple of the Truck Series for a while but is new to the Cup Series. So what can we take from the couple of Cup races and similar tracks for making bets for this weekend? What are the betting strategies that we’re using for Gateway? And who are the winner predictions we’re going with? All that plus prop bets in this week’s NASCAR Best Bets.

 

 

 

Enjoy Illinois 300 Betting Trends

The NASCAR Cup Series has only raced at Gateway twice, 2022 and 2023, so far. Admittedly that’s not a great sample size to go off of, especially since it’s gone hand-in-hand with the change to the Next Gen car. However, in those two races a few things have been abundantly clear. Firstly, passing is very hard, especially at the front of the pack. In both races, of the top-10 finishers, seven started inside the top-12. Two of the remaining three in each started P21 or worse and used heavy pit strategy to move through the field. With there being at least 10 cautions a race thus far, that can work when done right. While trends at the specific track are helpful, they’re not the be-all-end-all though. We need to look at similar tracks to get a better view of things too. The similar tracks to Gateway this week are Richmond, Phoenix, and New Hampshire because they’re all around 1-mile and flat just like the 1.25-mile Gateway.

 

Gateway NASCAR Betting Strategy

So taking everything above into account, what is the strategy for betting the Enjoy Illinois 300 this weekend? Well, firstly, if we’re betting winner bets, we need to focus on drivers with good histories at those similar tracks, as well as those capable of starting inside the top-10. Passing across the board at places like Richmond, Gateway, Phoenix, and New Hampshire, not to mention Nashville has been tough in Next Gen era. So starting at or close to the front is imperative to winning. The other thing we’re looking at is drivers that have good medium run speed in practice. That’s not a phrase we’ve used a ton before but it’s important here because of how cautions fall. If we get let’s say 8 cautions on Sunday, that’s an average of 30 laps between cautions, but if it’s more like 10-11, like in past years, that’s 22-24 laps per yellow. That means we won’t see a ton of tire fall off and cars that take 10-15 laps to come to life could have a harder time after restarts. For prop bets, drivers who qualified several spots further back than they ran at practice are still in play for top-10 or top-5 props.

All odds used are from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of writing unless otherwise noted.

 

 

 

Enjoy Illinois 300 Winner Predictions

Denny Hamlin +600

When it comes to shorter tracks, Hamlin is always a threat. That came true at Richmond in the last similar race the Cup Series ran where he won. In the last five similar races, Hamlin has two runners-up finishes and a win. If we look back at the Next Gen era and the similar races, his 101.7 Driver Rating at these tracks is second-best in the field. Sure these odds put him as the favorite, but it’s hard to turn him down when he’s not going off at 3- or 4-1 odds.

 

Martin Truex Jr. +900

If there is one driver who’s been better at the shorter, flatter tracks than Hamlin, it’s been Truex. He’s posted 9 top-10s in the 12 Next Gen era races on tracks like this and has a win. His 105.4 driver rating is the only one better than Hamlin’s and no one betters Truex’s 9.0 average finish. So knowing that, it’s hard not to see Truex as a real threat on Sunday and going off at these odds feels like a bonus to be honest.

 

Christopher Bell +950 (Caesars)

We’ve seen how Toyotas have done in general at the shorter tracks, hint it’s quite well. However, part of the success is due to Bell having good runs. The driver of the 20-car has finished outside the top-11 just thrice in 12 races since the start of 2022 and is one of only two drivers (yes Hamlin is the other) with two wins in that time. That includes his win at Phoenix earlier this year. Bell has been a threat to win basically every time the Cup Series shows up at a shorter, flatter track for 2.5 years and he will be a threat again on Sunday at Gateway.

 

Joey Logano +1200 (BetMGM)

Logano won this race two years ago and he’s coming off a win in the All-Star race, at a short flat track. The Fords this year have been at their best on the shorter, flatter layouts and that’s born out with Logano finishing P2 at Richmond and having speed before crashing at Phoenix. In fact, in the last five similar races, Logano has finished P4 or better in four of them. This could be a golden opportunity for Logano to kick his season into gear.

 

Chris Buescher +1800 (BetMGM)

When is it going to be Buescher’s time to win? We’ve seen him be very fast in this package dating back to last year and again this year. He just hasn’t had luck on his side yet in 2024. The RFK duo has been the best Ford team hands down this year and that has a good shot of continuing this weekend given Buescher has finished P1, P2, and P9 in the last three similar races. The odds are a tad shorter than I’d like but if he shows up and qualifies well, they’ll only get shorter from here so nab them while you can.

 

Josh Berry +6000 (BetMGM)

We have a narrative play, and a strategy play with Berry this weekend. It’s not been a great first season with SHR for Berry and the 4 team however, with the news of SHR closing shop at the end of the year, perhaps he’s got motivation. The tracks we’ve targeted Berry at before have been tracks like Gateway as he’s basically SHR’s new Aric Almirola. At 60-1 odds and having finished P10, P2, and P11 in three of four similar races in the Cup Series, he makes the cut as the long shot bet for this weekend. Clearly we need things to go right for him and SHR, but sprinkling a little bit at these odds is worth the pay off.

 

 

 

Best Prop Bets For NASCAR Cup Race at Gateway

Martin Truex Jr. Top 5 Finish +135 (BetMGM)

These odds just seem too good to be true. In the 12 similar races in the NextGen era, Truex has five top-five finishes, however when we expand that to finishes of P7 or better, he’s up to 9. Yes 3/4 of the time he’s been in or within two spots of a top-5 finish. It’s hard not to like the value between the implied chance and what he’s already done.

 

Kyle Larson Top 5 Finish +120 (BetRivers)

Coming off what he’s stated was his most disappointing weekend ever, we’re at a track type he’s performed solidly at in the past. In fact, he leads the field in top-fives in the Next Gen era at similar races with 6. He’s pulled off a top-five finish half the time. So getting better than even money return is a bonus. If you can’t bet Bet Rivers, he is +100 at BetMGM which is still solid for a guy who’s motivated to let his driving do the talking again.

 

Josh Berry Top 10 Finish +200

If we’re on Berry to win at 60-1, may as well hedge with a top-10 that’s a 2x return. As stated above, he’s finished P11 or better 3/4 of the time and P10 or better in half of his 4 Cup races in like in packages. If you really want to hedge he’s +700 at most books for a top-5 finish, but tread carefully there.

 

Chase Briscoe Top 10 Finish +210

Like Berry, Briscoe also found out this week that his SHR ride is done at the end of the year. That gives him the motivation needed to kick his season into gear. As luck would have it, it comes at a track type he’s done well at previously with three P11 or better finishes in the last four such races. We’ve mentioned a couple of times that Fords have shone at the shorter, flatter tracks and Briscoe has been adept at making passes on the tougher tracks to pass, that combo should make him a threat to finish top-third of the field and get us a nice return.