NASCAR Brickyard 400 Best Bets & Picks: Indianapolis Motor Speedway, 7/21
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Next up on the relentless NASCAR Cup Series schedule is a return to the famed Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Well, it’s oval, and the Brickyard 400. That’s the important part here. After a four-year break from the rectangular oval of 2.5 miles, all three series are back making only left turns. That’s where the tricky part of this weekend comes in as well.
Why tricky? Well, since the Cup Series last raced on this layout, the Next Gen car has been introduced and raced with for 2.5. All the while, not racing very much on this or similar tracks. So, it's a bit of a stab at bets this week based on recent speeds, similar track history (what there is of it) and how they’ve raced at Indy previously.
With that, keep reading for my Brickyard 400 predictions and best NASCAR best bets for this weekend’s race at Indianapolis Motor Speedway on Sunday, July 21st.
Indianapolis Motor Speedway Betting Trends & Strategies
So how do we go about making NASCAR predictions at a track where we haven’t seen this type of racing since Covid? Indy is a 2.5-mile oval with four individual corners that are relatively flat for the speeds that are carried on the track. Turn 2 at Pocono, aka the Tunnel Turn, last week was based on Indianapolis Motor Speedway at 8 degrees of banking – to give you an idea of flatness.
In general, we can look at Pocono and Michigan and past Indy races as the comparable tracks/races for strategy and how they will play out. The last few Pocono and Michigan race weekends have been settled based on the cars with the best long run speeds and those who are starting close to the front. We can expect a similar amount of cautions to what we had at Pocono last weekend thanks to the unknown nature of how the Next Gen cars will handle the track, as well as how the Goodyear tires will.
That may shift the field some in the middle with pit strategies, but the front of the pack will generally take the track position over pitting. Much in the similar way of winners at Pocono, 7-of-the-last-10 Indy oval winners have started P10 or better, but winners have come from P19 and P15.
NASCAR Brickyard 400 Winner Predictions & Picks
Denny Hamlin +490 (FanDuel)
He’s been fast everywhere this year and that includes last week. At the end of the race at Pocono, Hamlin was closing the gap to Ryan Blaney, and had the race gone 5-10 more laps, Hamlin would’ve caught him. If that speed holds again, like everywhere this year, this could be Hamlin’s week once more and give him momentum to close out the regular season title.
Brad Keselowski +900 (FanDuel)
The speed on the big horsepower tracks over the last year or so has been evident for Keselowski and RFK. It was last week for sure where Keselowski was arguably the fastest car on the track for big chunks of the race, including leading laps. He’s had a pretty good history at Indy the last time the oval was raced, so coupling the history and speed makes this a nice bet either way a good return.
Ryan Blaney +1000 (FanDuel)
Blaney won last week on a track that’s incredibly similar in setup to Indy. Then when you add in that Team Penske’s owner, Roger Penske also owns IMS this race becomes a showcase race for the Ford team.
Just like with Keselowski, the Fords have been showing their new-found speed on the bigger tracks and it doesn’t get much bigger than Indy, both in size and stature. Going back-to-back would catapult Blaney squarely to the forefront of the championship conversation.
William Byron +1300 (FanDuel)
Byron was all over the front of the pack at Pocono a week ago. He started P2 and came home P4. That is the best finish he’s had among the last nine similar races to Indy.
The final finish numbers don’t tell the whole story though as he ranks 6th in average Driver Rating in that span, 5th in average Running Position, 4th in average Laps Led and his 3 top-fives are second-best in the field. Clearly, he’s been one of the best drivers in the race sample but just hasn’t finished in Victory Lane. Byron is a threat to end that drought Sunday.
Martin Truex Jr. +1400 (BetMGM)
Truex has been fitting the eye test at similar tracks for a while now. He has 6-straight top-10 finishes at Pocono and Michigan. The runs at Indy previously were not good to say the least. However, that was with a now-defunct Furniture Row team and in the previous generation of car. This current generation seems to be working nicely for him in this package and setup and should have him in contention for a win at Indy on Sunday.
Joey Logano +1600 (FanDuel)
We’ve had this “new track” narrative going with Logano for a bit and this one sort of fits that narrative. It’s a “new car, new track” narrative this weekend. Logano laid down some fast laps at Pocono a week ago en route to a P5 finish after starting P10. That speed will come in handy this weekend at his car owner’s track. For what it's worth, he did have a runner-up the second-to-last time they raced this configuration.
Alex Bowman +3400 (FanDuel)
Bowman was perhaps the most consistently fast Chevys on the track at Pocono running in the top-6 basically all race long. That same speed will help him this weekend at Indy. However, speed hasn’t been his question here given he’s started well in the last 3 races run on the oval layout.
It’s been finishing. Bowman hasn’t finished well here in the past, so there is more risk with him than others. That being said, he’s become a far more consistent driver the last few months and if he gets over the hump here, the return here is quite nice.
NASCAR Prop Bets: Brickyard 400 - Indianapolis Motor Speedway
Denny Hamlin Top-5 Finish -125 (BetRivers)
Hamlin’s average finish over the last nine similar races to Indy is 5.8 with 7 top-5s. Sure, I’d like to see closer to even odds, but hey, when you’re dealing with a driver of Hamlin’s ilk, this isn’t bad. Hamlin had a run of 5-straight top-five finishes earlier in the season and he looks to be starting another run of that now.
Ryan Blaney Top-5 Finish +125 (FanDuel)
Blaney is simply one of the consistently fast cars on the track and that speed takes him to the front. That’s where this bet comes in. While he doesn’t have the glitteriest stats to back it up, he is coming off a convincing win and has run better at similar tracks than he gets credit for thanks to some runs of bad luck.
Bubba Wallace Top-10 Finish +135 (BetMGM)
Wallace is coming off a strong P10 at Pocono last week, his 5th top-10 finish in the 9-race sample we’re looking at this week. He has 6 P11 or better finishes as well. If the speed, and his mentality, stick around for another week, there’s value here. Wallace’s 5 top-10s is a 55.5% hit rate while the implied odds are 42.5%. See value.
Erik Jones Top-10 Finish +350 (BetMGM)
Jones has been tantalizingly close to nabbing several top-10s in the last nine similar races. That’s across multiple cars, teams, manufacturers and car generations. In the last 9 similar races, he’s had 4 top-10s, 5 top-11s and 6 top-14s, the last P14 came last week at Pocono. The implied odds of the +350 line are 22.2%, but his 4 top-10s in 9 races is 44.4% hit rate giving built in value here.
Chase Elliott -125 vs. Tyler Reddick (DraftKings)
Elliott has simply been the more consistent driver on similar tracks than Reddick. Elliott has 6 top-11 finishes in the last 7 similar races; Reddick has just 4. Lastly, Reddick has been alternating between P29 or worse and P10 or better finishes in similar races, he’s coming off a P6 at Pocono… enough said.