The Round of 12 in the NASCAR Playoffs gets its engines going at Kansas Speedway on Sunday. The Hollywood Casino 400 is shaping up to be one of the best races of the year. The previous finish at Kansas was the closest in NASCAR history in May. 

Just what makes Kansas Speedway such a great track? How can we use track trends to make NASCAR picks for Sunday? Hollywood Casino 400 best bets on winners, long shots, and props are also below. 

 

 

 

Keep reading the betting preview for our Hollywood Casino 400 predictions for 2024 at Kansas for juicy nuggets to help you win.

Hollywood Casino 400 Betting Trends & Strategy

Kansas has typically been one of the best tracks in the Next Gen era from a racing perspective. It’s a multi-groove mile-and-a-half track with tire wear, passing, battles for the lead, and cautions. Everything you could want in a race including putting the outcomes in the drivers’ hands. 

That being said, are there trends we can gravitate to for Hollywood Casino 400 best bets? In the last 9 races here, the winner has started in the top-10 each time. In the Next Gen era all of the winners have come from P4 to P8. So like a standard intermediate we’re looking for drivers starting in the top-10 to get the win, however, what do our Hollywood Casino 400 predictions look like for prop betting? 

Drivers have been able to move up here decently, however, in the Next Gen races just 30% of the top-10 started outside of the top-12. 

 

 

 

Hollywood Casino 400 Best Bets: Winner Predictions

Denny Hamlin +550 (BetMGM)

We’re splitting hairs between him and Larson but the value on the line is better with Hamlin so that’s where we’re going. In the last 5 Kansas Cup races, Hamlin’s average finish is 2.8 with a win and never finishing outside the top-5. That makes him an instant threat to win. 

Then add in his second-best average finish over his 19 similar races in the field and second-best running position and we get the picture. Hamlin is a serious threat this week and this is perhaps his best shot to lock up a spot in the Round of 8 given the next two races.

Tyler Reddick +850 (FanDuel)

Reddick is the defending race winner in the fall Kansas race. He’s also been on a heater in the similar races of late too. Just how much of a heater? In the last 5 he’s posted 4 top-5s and in the last 9 there’s 2 wins and 7 top-8 finishes. That’s an awful lot of running up front or near the front for Reddick who’s looking to lock into the Round of 8 and not have to worry about Talladega or the Roval.

 

 

 

William Byron +1300 (FanDuel)

Unlike his teammate below, Byron has been excellent on similar tracks but only alright at Kansas. In the 5 similar races this year, Byron has 4 top-10s and 3 top-3s but his worst finish came at Kansas. If Byron can harness that good mojo from the other tracks and bring it to the Hollywood Casino 400, he could finally have a victory lane run at a track that’s been tricky for him previously.

Kyle Busch +2500 (BetMGM)

We’re running out of chances for Busch to extend his 19-season race win streak and this is one of those remaining races. Busch has back-to-back top-8 finishes here and 3 top-9 finishes in the last 4 similar races. The 8-car has been a different car on the track since the Olympics and he could very well ruin the win hopes for playoff drivers if our Hollywood Casino 400 best bets are correct.

Alex Bowman +3500 (FanDuel)

By most measures Bowman has been the third best driver in the field at Kansas in the Next Gen era. Average finish, top-10s, running position, average laps led, driver rating all rank in the top-5 in the field. The only other drivers with that are Hamlin and Larson. 

Both of them are +550 or shorter, why is Bowman at 35-1? If he brings that same consistency this week, Bowman stands to have a great chance of locking himself into the Round of 8.

 

 

 

Kansas Speedway Predictions 2024 - Long Shot Winners

Noah Gragson 90-1 (FanDuel)

Three P12 or better finishes at the similar races this year including a P9 at Kansas in May. The 10-car for SHR has been speedy coming down the stretch as they have 7 races left as a team. That speed has a shot to show up again at a track that Gragson has not only run well at in Cup but also has a win at in Xfinity.

Daniel Suarez 100-1 (BetMGM)

Suarez has made the Round of 12 for the first time in his career and had been looking very racy before the bad night at Bristol. Now that we’re back on an intermediate track, Suarez should be racy once more. While Kansas hasn’t been the best track for him, the advanced numbers show he’s run better here than he’s gotten credit for. 

On top of that, Suarez has 7 top-10s in the last 19 similar races with 3 P11 or better finishes at them this year. He’ll still need breaks to go his way, but at least he’s posted a history that shows he can run in the top quarter of the field regularly, making him a solid longshot for Hollywood Casino 400 best bets.

 

 

 

NASCAR Picks: Hollywood Casino 400 Props - Kansas Speedway

Denny Hamlin +100 vs Kyle Larson (BetMGM)

A matchup of the 2 best drivers statistically in the Next Gen era at Kansas and we get a plus money bet? Yep! Hamlin’s record here is just slightly better than Larson’s. That’s enough to take the plus side of this. 

Yes, I know Larson just dominated Bristol, true, but Hamlin also pulled off a top-3 finish and looked great all night too. Now looking at Kansas, Hamlin is the only driver to finish in the top-5 in each of the 5 Next Gen races. Then when you look at similar races, Hamlin has a 1.5 spot better average finish than Larson over those 18 races.

Denny Hamlin Top-5 Finish -115 (BetRivers)

Why we’re getting barely under even money odds on this line is puzzling to me. Hamlin has accomplished the feat 100% of the time the last 5 races at Kansas in this car. He’s also pulled this off 10 times in the last 19 similar races. Hamlin, JGR, and Toyota excel at this type of track, and we should see that once more on Sunday in the Hollywood Casino 400.

Alex Bowman Top-10 Finish +150 (DraftKings)

Like the odds to win above, these top-10 odds are simply too low this week. The driver with the 3rd best average finish in the Next Gen era at Kansas is Bowman, behind only Larson and Hamlin. 

In addition, Bowman has 4 top-10s in his 4 races since 2022 at Kansas. When you add in his 50% hit rate in the 16 similar races in the Next Gen era, Bowman’s implied odds are simply too low with this line. A.k.a. there’s value in this line.

 

 

 

Tyler Reddick Top-5 Finish +110 (Caesars)

This bet, like the win bet, is more based on his typical showing at this style of track than Kansas specifically. In the last 9 similar races, Reddick has 2 wins and 6 top-5 finishes. One of those wins was this race last year. We’re going based on his long history of good showings at this style of track rather than his lone top-5 in 5 Next Gen races at Kansas and snapping up the plus money odds here.

Kyle Busch Top-10 Finish +110 (Caesars)

The resurgence of RCR has been real in the second half of the season. Busch has been the benefit of that with 4 top-15s and 3 top-10s at similar tracks this year. In addition to that, Busch has back-to-back top-10s at Kansas in the 8-car. That’s enough for me to like a better-than-even-money wager in my Hollywood Casino 400 best bets. 

Noah Gragson Top-10 Finish +390 (FanDuel)

We’re building off of his P9 finish here earlier in the year and his 3 top-12 finishes at similar races this year. The 10-car has been showing speed down the stretch and that speed should continue on a style of track he’s done well at in the past. It is a longer odd bet than we normally make for props but there’s enough history to justify it.