It’s all to race for on Sunday at Phoenix. The NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race is Sunday, November 10th at Phoenix Raceway. The 1-mile odd track in the desert has held the title race for the last few years and it’s produced some interesting racing. 

 

 

 

Just how does this track race? What similar tracks can we look at before making Cup Series Championship Best Bets? What are the championship trends we’ve seen in the past here and are they different from the Spring races here? Can we bet non-championship drivers to win in our Cup Series Championship Predictions for 2024? 

Who we’re predicting to win and the best prop bets you can make are all in this week’s NASCAR picks and betting preview for the Cup Championship Race.

Cup Series Championship Betting Trends & Strategy

The 1-mile, nearly flat track tucked in the desert outside of Phoenix has been a staple of the NASCAR schedule since it was first opened in 1988. It did undergo a track reconfiguration a few years back that moved the start-finish line to near the dogleg rather than down the, now, “backstretch”. 

Since they did that, the track has been the site of the title race for all three NASCAR series starting in 2020. What have we seen in those races since it became the title race and the track was reworked? Well, since 2020 in the Cup races, the winner has come from the top-10 starting spots 7 times in 9 races. The 2 that didn’t come from P13 to bookend that span. 

Is there a difference for the title race compared to the Spring race in terms of starting spots for winners? Yes, to put it plainly. The 3 pole-sitters to win here since 2020 have all been in the championship race out of the 4 held here. Phoenix is a track that favors track position as the last 3 races we’ve seen an average of 3.3 drivers a race start outside of the top-12 and finish in the top-10. 

Phoenix Raceway also tends to be a track with fewer than average cautions as this race last year had just 4 total yellows, including 2 stage breaks. So, for Cup Series Championship Best Bets this week, we’re looking at the drivers starting inside the top-10 for outright winner bets and we want to focus on the drivers with the best long-run speeds at practice as well. 

In terms of prop bets and finish bets, we’re looking at track history not only at Phoenix but also Nashville, Richmond, Gateway, Iowa, and New Hampshire as similar tracks. They as a group are flat to flatter and all from .75-1.25 miles in length. Drivers who have shown an ability to move up on tough to pass tracks are ones we want to look at for prop bets in our Cup Series Championship Best Bets as well.

 

 

 

Cup Series Championship Best Bets: Winner Predictions

Ryan Blaney +400 (FanDuel)

Going for his back-to-back titles, Blaney has the best average finish of any drivers in the field in the Next Gen era at Phoenix. The 3.0 mark is impressive, even when including he’s yet to win in that span.

While he did win the title last year, he simply finished better than any Championship Four driver in P2. If he can simply do one space better, he’ll cash for our Cup Series Championship Predictions in 2024 and win a second Cup title.

Christopher Bell +600 (FanDuel)

Bell might be the driver feeling most aggrieved to not have made the Championship Four. He was winning in Vegas until the final lap, then had issues at Homestead, and then was given a safety violation at Martinsville on the final lap. 

Bell won here in the March race and has 3 top-10s in the 5 Next Gen era races so there’s consistency here to make him a threat to win Sunday. Keep in mind we did have a non-Championship driver win this race last year and there’s no reason it can’t happen again.

William Byron +600 (FanDuel)

Byron, the beneficiary of help at Martinsville to get into the Championship race, has a win at Phoenix 3 races ago. Sandwiched between two P18 finishes are 3 P6 or better finishes for Byron at Phoenix. 

It is odd to see him this high on the odds list after basically limping into the final race, but he does have stretches of consistency at this track and style of racing and if he finds that, he could nab a Cup title.

 

 

 

Joey Logano +750 (FanDuel)

The last 2 times that Logano has won the Fall Vegas race, he’s won the Championship race 3 weeks later. That holds true for Homestead and Phoenix title runs. Outside of that title win here 2 years ago, it’s been mediocre for Logano at Phoenix. 

That being said though, Logano has 4 top-6 finishes, including a win, in the last 6 similar races to Phoenix. So, he’s got the speed in the setup for this race, he just needs to harness the 2022 form that saw him run away with the title on the November Sunday at Phoenix.

Tyler Reddick +950 (FanDuel)

Reddick has 3 top-10 finishes at Phoenix in the Next Gen era however, and this is key for Cup Series Championship Best Bets, they’ve all come in the Spring race here. The Fall races haven’t exactly been solid or clean for him in the last 2. 

Could that change this year? Sure, but it’s an interesting trend to make note of. He has led laps here and he does have solid fastest laps and laps led numbers as well, but he will need more speed than he’s shown up here with in the past and perhaps a break or two to outright win the race.

Ross Chastain +2100 (FanDuel)

So, the driver with the best average finish in the field in the Next Gen era is at +400 odds but the driver with the second-best mark is at +2100? Interesting value here. Chastain has 4 finishes of P6 or better in the 5 Next Gen races including a win in this race a year ago. 

The driver of the 1-car also has 4 top-10s in the last 6 similar races which is one of the better marks in the field as well. He won’t be surprising people as much this year with trying to win while not being a title chaser, but he’s still got enough speed in the car to be a threat here consistently.

 

 

 

Phoenix Raceway Predictions 2024 - Long Shot Winners

Chase Briscoe +4000 (BetRivers)

One of only 3 drivers in the field with 4 or more top-10s in the Next Gen races at Phoenix, Briscoe has been very good here. Add to that a win and this being his final race for SHR, there’s some added motivation to his performance. 

While it’s not often we see non-title-contenders win the final race, it did happen here last year and with Briscoe’s sustained success at Phoenix it could happen again.

Chris Buescher +5000 (FanDuel)

Buescher has been quite impressive in the last few runs at Phoenix with a P5 and P2 finish in the last 2 races here and he’s posted 3 top-10s in the 5 Next Gen era races. He also won at Richmond last year which is a comp track to Phoenix. 

In the span between that win and now, he’s posted 6 top-10s in those 8 similar races which should keep him a solid play for Cup Series Championship Best Bets on Sunday even though he’s not in the playoffs any longer.

 

 

 

NASCAR Picks: Cup Series Championship Props - Phoenix Raceway

Chase Elliott vs. Ross Chastain +100 (BetMGM)

Phoenix hasn’t exactly been Elliott’s track in the Next Gen era as he’s yet to finish better than 11th in this 4 races here. Meanwhile for Chastain, he’s finished P6 or better in 4 of his 5 races including a win last year. 

Even when we look at similar races since 2022, while their average finishes are similar, Chastain has more wins, top-5s, top-10s and top-15s than Elliott in that span. There’s also the fact that Elliott will be trying to keep out of the way of Byron trying to win the title and Chastain is simply trying to run his best race.

Brad Keselowski vs. Chase Briscoe +108 (BetRivers)

Briscoe is a popular bet of mine this week but we’re taking him a bit differently in this bet in the form of a match-up. All we need is for Briscoe to finish one spot better than Keselowski for this to hit and get better than even money in return. 

I can’t exactly figure out why this line is this way given the fact that Briscoe has beaten Keselowski straight up 4 of 5 Next Gen races at Phoenix and has very similar stats to him at similar races since 2022.

 

 

 

Chris Buescher Top-10 Finish +160 (Caesars)

The RFK Fords have been very good on this type of track for a while now. In fact, dating back to his win at Richmond last Fall, Buescher has 6 top-10s in the last 8 similar races. When we look specifically at Phoenix, he’s posted 2 straight top-10s and 3 in the 5 Next Gen races. 

If you want some added juice to this portion of Cup Series Championship Best Bets you can get him at +700 for a Top-5 at FanDuel. His last two finishes at Phoenix have been P5 and P2.

Chase Briscoe Top-10 Finish +140 (Caesars)

Briscoe is 1 of 3 drivers with 4 or more top-10s in the Next Gen era at Phoenix. His average finish in this era is 9.0 here, yet we’re getting better than even money odds on something he’s accomplished 80% of the time here. 

Granted, he’s been a bit up-and-down recently in the similar races with just 2 top-10s in the last 6 and 3 in the last 9. However, sometimes coming to a track you’re comfortable at can get things going well, especially when it’s the final race at a team like SHR.