The sprint to the 2024 NASCAR Playoffs is down to the final regular season race – the Cook Out Southern 500. Darlington is one of the toughest tracks on the NASCAR schedule, it’s literally in the nickname – “The Track Too Tough To Tame”. The oldest “super speedway” in NASCAR is also home to a Crown Jewel race this weekend and that only adds to the pressure along with the chance to make the playoffs.

 

 

 

How are we looking at that pressure for Darlington predictions in 2024? What are the race trends and similar races we can look at? What do previous races this season let us predict about Sunday’s race? All that plus NASCAR picks and Cook Out Southern 500 best bets coming up!

Darlington Speedway Betting Trends & Strategy

When we look back at the last 10 races at Darlington, there’s a pretty strong correlation between starting close to the front and winning the race. In that span, 7 of the winners have started P1 to P8. Two more started P15. That’s not all that surprising though given the race flows here with the tire wear and field separation that happens.

As far as drivers nailing down top-10 finishes, over the last 5 races here, 52% of the top-10 finishers have started outside the top-12. In terms of stoppages, the last 10 races at Darlington have produced an average of 8.1 cautions a race. That’s a fair number of restarts to gain track position on.

One key thing to keep in mind for NASCAR picks is that Darlington favors the experienced drivers. Ones with experience not only here but also at similar tracks with tire wear. That’s been a trend and story here for a while. It’s not typically kind to neophytes. So along those lines, what is the strategy for betting Darlington?

Clearly we want drivers with good track history here but also at similar tracks like Vegas, Texas, Homestead, and perhaps Dover. Those tracks compare well and favorably to the conditions and tire wear of Darlington. We also want to put stock in drivers trying to clinch playoff berths or higher standing in the playoffs. Drivers with dirt racing background and skills managing tires well are also ones we really want to look for Cook Out Southern 500 best bets as well.

 

 

 

Cook Out Southern 500 Best Bets: Winner Predictions

Tyler Reddick +750 (FanDuel)

There might be no other driver in the field who handles tire wear and making speed better than Reddick. That’s a trait that will carry a driver a long way at a place like Darlington. He’s been tantalizingly close to winning at Darlington before and has certainly shown speed at similar tracks this year. Two other things to keep in mind with Reddick are, firstly, he’s looking for his first regular season title heading into the playoffs and secondly, there’s value here as he’s +500 or so at just about every other book.

William Byron +1200 (FanDuel)

Byron has the best average finish in the field when looking at similar races. He’s also posted a few wins in that span and nearly won here two years ago. Looking to carry momentum into the playoffs and make a statement, we expect Byron to show up fast enough to be a threat all evening/night in our Darlington predictions for 2024.

Christopher Bell +1400 (FanDuel)

This one is a bit of a shot in the dark with logic behind it. Bell has been getting better at Darlington each time he’s raced here and on top of that he’s quite good at tire wear tracks. Part of the carryover from his dirt racing background. We’ll need some luck on his side to nab a win this weekend, and to continue improving his record here, however Bell is in a prime spot to make that happen and put his 20-car in victory lane in a Crown Jewel race.

Ty Gibbs +1600 (FanDuel)

Gibbs is still looking for his first Cup Series win and a solid performance to lock him into the playoffs. While this is a traditionally tough track for young drivers, Gibbs comes in with a great history in similar races including three straight P7 or better finishes. We’ve seen Gibbs get surprising wins before like his first Xfinity win coming at the Daytona Road Course out of the blue, so it wouldn’t be out of character to see the 54-car in Victory Lane.

Chris Buescher +1800 (FanDuel)

We’ve been saying this for a few weeks now and it’s true again. Buescher needs a win, or a top-5 run, to secure his spot in the playoffs. While he’s had a checkered past at Darlington there are two things in his favor, firstly, he started P3 here back in May showing he can bring speed here. Secondly, his teammate is very good at this track and can help with setup and racing tips to improve Buescher’s chances. We’ve seen RFK rise to the occasion before and this is one of those occasions.

Bubba Wallace +2800 (FanDuel)

It’s now or never for the 23XI driver. He’s knows it too based on the post-Daytona interviews last week. Wallace has been extremely fast on intermediate tracks in the last two years and has 6 top-10s in the last 10 similar races to prove it. He’ll need everything to go his way on Sunday and show he can manage one of the most grueling races well, but the speed should be there to make him competitive and a factor.

 

 

 

Darlington Predictions 2024 - Long Shot Winners

Kyle Busch +3000 (BetMGM)

My longshot Cook Out Southern 500 best bets start with Busch. The recent speed boost from RCR is coming at the right time to try and get Busch into the playoffs once more. Busch has won at Darlington previously is the team has posted two straight top-5s coming into the regular season finale. Dan Malin called Busch to win last week and it nearly hit, so why not this week?

Erik Jones +6600 (BetMGM)

Jones has tamed this track twice, including this race 2 years ago. Legacy Motor Club hasn’t been great this year but Jones has still had compelling and competitive races at tracks he’s good at, like Darlington. His only hope to make the playoffs is to win this race and he’s been a surprise winner before. Going with the last two surprise winners plus being a track he’s good at and in a Toyota sets the stage for Jones to be a solid long shot bet.

 

 

 

NASCAR Picks: Cook Out Southern 500 Props - Darlington Speedway

Bubba Wallace Top-10 Finish +100 (FanDuel)

In the last 10 similar races he’s run, Wallace has 6 top-10s or a 60% hit rate. The even money odds suggest an implied odd of 50%. So there’s value here in addition to consistent success for Wallace. He’ll be trying to get a win, or at least run close to the front to boost his points and chance of making the playoffs as well.

Kyle Busch Top-10 Finish +110 (BetMGM)

The RCR cars have been far faster in the last few weeks since the Olympic break. Not only was that the case at Richmond but also Daytona and now comes a track Busch has been good at previously. Busch needs a win to make the playoffs and if that’s the case he’ll be in a position to finish P10 or better and get us a nice value return on the bet.

Ty Gibbs Top-5 Finish +210 (BetMGM)

The last two races at similar tracks to Darlington have seen Gibbs finish P5 and P2. He’s not nabbed a win yet in the Cup Series but has plenty of close calls to his credit. This weekend could be another one if he doesn’t in fact win. One last thing in his favor, Toyotas have been consistently fast at this style of track the last two years or so.

William Byron +130 vs Denny Hamlin (BetMGM)

Byron has been one of the best drivers at these types of tracks, as noted above. The average finish for Byron over the last 11 similar races is 7.2 while it’s 12.3 for Hamlin. That average finish  would be even better for Byron had Logano not run him over 2 years ago here as well. This kind of plus money line in favor of Byron has too much value to be ignored.

Noah Gragson Top-10 Finish +350 (BetMGM)

Gragson has been great here in Xfinity with 4 top-5s in 4 races. In the Spring race here he finished P14 after starting P36. The SHR cars have been faster in recent weeks and Gragson returning to a track his driving style fits is bound to bring out another good showing for him, and us for Cook Out Southern 500 best bets.

Josh Berry Top Ford +1200 (DraftKings)

Berry finished P3 here in the Spring race at Darlington. He did so after starting P33 with some crafty pit strategy and speed to pull that off. Berry tends to be quite good at managing tires in the heavy wear races. He’ll still need the pit strategy and breaks at the right time but this bet is worth sprinkling a bit on if Berry gets those breaks.