It’s Bristol baby! The Bass Pro Shops Night Race is on Saturday night at Bristol Motor Speedway as the last race in the opening round of playoffs. The tight confines of the track lead to tensions but also good betting opportunities. 

When looking at predictions for the 2024 Bass Pro Shops Night Race, what other tracks can we look at? For NASCAR picks does being a playoff cutoff race matter? The race trends at Bristol can be a bit set in concrete, so to speak, but we’ve seen races buck the trend recently. 

 

 

 

Will the Bristol race be any different? Let’s look at the Bass Pro Shops Night race best bets to see.

Bristol Motor Speedway Betting Trends & Strategy

When making Bristol predictions for 2024, it’s worth mentioning that the famed short track in Tennessee is known for quite a lot of action. We saw earlier this year what the new intermediate package has brought to the racing. That being said though, there are some strong trends that remain at Bristol. 

Over the last 20 races here, dating back to 2013, only 6 of those winners came from outside the top-10 in the starting grid. That doesn’t mean that drivers can’t move up here though. Over the last 5 races, 40% of the top-10 finishers have started outside of the top-12 including plenty from P20 or worse.

For winners in our Bass Pro Shops Night Race best bets, we’re mainly focusing on not only drivers with a strong history of success but those mainly starting in the front quarter of the field. Bristol isn’t like a normal short track as it takes a special set of skills and experience to do well at Bristol. 

In terms of Bass Pro Shops Night Race best bets for props, we are looking at track history but also some of the advanced data that may explain a better history than the driver is getting credit for.

 

 

 

Bass Pro Shops Night Race Best Bets: Winner Predictions

Denny Hamlin +400 (DraftKings)

Hamlin has won the last 2 Bristol concrete races. He’s also finished inside the top-10 in 4 straight. He’s coming in below the cutoff line for the playoffs and needs a very good run to stay in the hunt for the elusive championship. 

This is easily one of his best tracks and given his history of leading laps here, expect him to run at or near the front of the pack much of the race.

Kyle Larson +600 (DraftKings)

If there’s anyone who can rival Hamlin’s success here of late it’s Larson. He has a win and 5 straight P6 or better finishes including 2 runners-up. 

Over the last 6 races on the concrete, Larson has the best average finish in the field as well which surely keeps him as a threat.

Christopher Bell +650 (BetMGM)

Bell has simply been too good here of late to leave out of the top picks for the Bristol Night Race. Three straight top-10s including 2 P4 or better finishes along with a ton of laps led put him in a dominator category. 

The JGR drivers are usually very competitive at Bristol as well so we’re getting a bit of value over his teammate who has a similar record at Bristol. If we’d rather take a top-5 bet on him, we can get that line at +105 currently.

 

 

 

Ty Gibbs +1000 (DraftKings)

Gibbs has topped more than 100 laps led in each of the last 2 races here. Leading that many laps makes him a threat to be there when it matters most. In the last 2 races here as well, not only has he finished P5 and P9, but he also has one of the best top-15% at 95%. 

That means he’s spent 950 of 1,000 laps in the top-15 on green flag laps. Spending that much time toward or at the front has to pay dividends, right?

Brad Keselowski +1000 (BetMGM)

This is a must-run-well race for Keselowski if he hopes to make it through to the Round of 12. This is just the track for that to happen. In the last 8 races, he’s posted P8 or better finishes 6 times including a win. 

Over that 8-race span, his average finish is 3rd best in the field indicating just how good he’s been here. There’s clearly speed in the RFK camp given their runs of late and his teammate winning last week, expect Keselowski to fighting for the win once more at Bristol.

Chase Elliott +1800 (BetMGM)

Elliott has been incredibly consistent here of late with 3 straight top-10s including a runner-up. He’s also won the All-Star race here as well, hey that has to count for something right? 

The other thing in his favor is the best average running position he’s accumulated over the last 8 races. He’s looking to kick it into gear in the playoffs and this might be just that race to plug him into Bass Pro Shops Night Race best bets.

 

 

 

Bristol Predictions 2024 - Long Shot Winners

John H. Nemechek 125-1 (BetMGM)

When we’re looking at drivers with this long of odds, we need stats to back it up. How about Nemechek having a top-10 in his last race here? Nemechek has also been finding speed in the second half of the season which is bound to help him on Saturday night. 

He’ll need quite a few breaks to go his way and pit strategy to be perfect, but if it happens, he has run well here in the past.

Ryan Preece 200-1 (BetMGM)

In Preece’s 7 Cup races at Bristol, he’s finished P18 or better 6 times and inside the top-12 thrice. He’s also a bit of a short track specialist and the only SHR driver without a ride for next year. 

So not only is there incentive for him to have a good race at one of his best tracks, but he’s also gotten stage points in 3 of the last four stages at Bristol. The ability to run in the top-10 throughout the race is certainly interesting at these odds.

 

 

 

NASCAR Picks: Bass Pro Shops Night Race Props - Bristol Motor Speedway

Chase Elliott +100 vs. Ryan Blaney (BetMGM)

This one is simple. Elliott has been far better and more consistent there than Blaney. Elliott has bested the finish of Blaney 6 times in the last 8 races. 

It’s also not as though Elliott is only beating him in average finish, Elliott’s average running position of 8.2 in that span is best in the field and 6 spots better than Blaney.

Kyle Larson Top-5 Finish +105 (BetRivers)

Larson has 4 straight top-5 finishes here and 5 straight P6 or better finishes. The fact that this is still plus money odds is shocking with those stats. 

Oh yeah, those top-5 finishes have come from him starting anywhere from P5 to P36. So, he’s been good here and moving up well plus getting plus money? Take it and don’t look back.

 

 

 

Josh Berry Top-10 Finish +125 (BetMGM)

Berry cut his teeth on short tracks in the lower series. In his last 3 races here between the Xfinity and Cup series Berry has started P2, making him a prime candidate for Bass Pro Shops Night Race best bets. 

The good starting spot helps at a track like Bristol and in 2-of-3 of those he finished P12 or better with average running positions inside the top-10. If he can hold on to that running position and finish where he’s been running, this bet has nice value to it.

Alex Bowman Top-10 Finish +135 (BetMGM)

Like Nemechek below, we’re looking at value here in this bet. Bowman has accomplished this feat twice in the last 4 races here and in a third he was top-10 in both stages before being caught in a wreck in the third stage. 

He’s been finding his groove more and more the last few weeks, since the replacement rumors circulated, and we’ll take advantage of that with lower implied odds in the line than percent he’s accomplished it.

John H. Nemechek Top-10 Finish +400 (BetMGM)

There’s two ways to look at this bet. The first way is based on value and implied odds. The 4-1 line of this bet signifies a 20% chance this happens. Nemechek has a top-10 in his last race here, 1-of-3 he’s run. So, he’s pulled this off 33% of the time. 

The other way to look at it is that his track history of 2 top-15 finishes and a history of moving up well as well as recent speed, suggest he’s got a better than fighting shot at this. Either way, there’s value in this prop.