We’re always up for a good time in Nashvegas, aka Nashville, right? This Sunday is the Ally 400 at Nashville Superspeedway with NASCAR hoping to put on a show. The track south of Nashville, TN is one of the more unique tracks on the schedule in distance, surface, and banking which makes for a fun racing weekend. 

 

 

 

What tracks are we looking at to compare Nashville to before making our NASCAR best bets? What are the betting strategies we’re using for the Ally 400? What prop bets are we looking at for this race? And of course, what are the winner predictions for Nashville?

Ally 400 Betting Strategy For 2024

The great racing of the intermediate package is back this weekend. After a run of shorter, flatter tracks, we get the 1.33-mile Nashville Superspeedway on Sunday. Aside from the distance being a tad different than a “pure intermediate”, the surface is too with it being concrete. There’s also the slightly shallower banking of 14 degrees to contend with too. So with all that being the case, how are we approaching Nashville for betting?

The tracks we’re looking at this week to compare with Nashville Superspeedway are Dover, Bristol, Kansas, and Las Vegas mainly. Obviously looking at the last two years here too is included. That collection of tracks all have some element that compares favorably with Nashville from the style of racing and banking at Kansas to the high speeds of Vegas to the surfaces of Dover and Bristol. 

When we look at those tracks from 2022 on (the Next Gen era) and for Bristol this year thanks to the intermediate package, we can get a good base of data to work with. In terms of how we’re betting this race, for winners, we’re looking at drivers who start in the top-10. 

Each of the last three winners here, the only in the Cup series, have started P5 or better with much of the top-10 remaining in tact throughout the race. In the Next Gen races, an average of 3 drivers starting outside the top-12 have finished in the top-10. That enlightens us on top-10 or finishing position props as well.

 

 

 

NASCAR Ally 400 Winner Predictions & Picks

Denny Hamlin +550 (DraftKings)

The only driver who’s run better at Nashville than Hamlin is Larson, and to be honest, Hamlin’s showings have been better over multiple races. He has multiple wins in similar races and over the last 14 such races, Hamlin has posted a 4.6 average finish. The consistency, the speed, and how well Toyotas run at intermediates make Hamlin a very hard driver to pass up this weekend.

Martin Truex +750 (BetMGM)

Truex arguably should’ve won here a couple of years ago if it hadn’t been for a bad pit strategy late in the race. He comes in to this race having threatened for a win in each of the last three similar races with a P2, P3, and P4 finish respectively. Truex ran P2 here last year as well in that vein. While he’s strongly in thew playoffs, a win would lock him in for a chance to win one last championship.

Chase Elliott +950 (BetMGM)

Elliott won here two years ago and finished P4 last year. Are we surprised? Nope, he’s very good at these types of tracks with two wins and nine top-10s in the last 15 similar races. That includes three-straight P8 or better finishes. His history is similar to Truex and Hamlin above him so it’s nice to get a better return on investment than with them and basically the same shot at winning.

Ross Chastain +950 (FanDuel)

Chastain won this race last year and looked good doing it. This is his team’s “home race” with Trackhouse being based in Nashville. While this year hasn’t been quite as good for Chastain as previous years, we still have to bank on his past consistency showing up again. Just how consistent was he? He posted a win and 9 top-5 finishes in the 13 similar races prior to Bristol this year. If the speed is back and he shakes off the slightly bad luck of the last three races, Chastain could go back-to-back at Nashville.

Alex Bowman +5000 (BetMGM)

Bowman has been quietly putting together good runs on similar tracks. In fact, he’s posted three-straight top-10s and 4-in-the-last-6. The Hendrick cars are always fast in the intermediate package races. At this point Bowman needs a great run to start making up ground in the playoffs and a win would likely lock him in.

 

 

 

NASCAR Ally 400 Longshot Bets

Daniel Suarez +8000 (DraftKings)

Trackhouse is based in Nashville and one of Suarez’s main sponsors is Tootsie’s, a bar in Nashville. His teammate won their “home race” last year and Suarez ran inside the top-10 a good chunk of the day after starting in the rear. If he brings that same speed again this year, and keeps the car clean, Suarez should be fighting for a shot to win late in the race once more.

Noah Gragson 100-1 (DraftKings)

There’s a hedge for this bet below, but in general, Gragson has produced three top-10s in the last four similar races this year. Consistently finishing in the top-10 makes him a threat to win if he catches a break or two. Along with solid performances, he has motivation to try and nab a win to land a job going forward.

 

 

 

NASCAR Prop Bets: Ally 400 From Nashville Superspeedway

Denny Hamlin Top-5 Finish +105 (BetRivers)

Over the last 14 similar races, he’s finished no worse than P11. That’s produced an average finish of 4.6. That’s all we need to know about this bet and just be happy we found a line with a plus money return on it.

Chase Elliott Top-5 Finish +150 (BetRivers)

He won this race two years ago, as mentioned above, but he’s also been consistently good at similar tracks. In the last eight similar races, Elliott has 6 finishes of P8 or better in that span with two-straight top-fives. These odds suggest an implied chance of 40% chance, and he’s been producing better than that hit rate of late.

Alex Bowman Top-10 Finish +160 (FanDuel)

If we look at the last 13 similar races for Bowman, he’s posted an average finish of 12.1 in that span. Over the last three similar races, Bowman has nabbed three-straight top-10 finishes. This +160 line implies less than a 40% chance of Bowman pulling off something he’s done three-straight and in 9-of-13 races. I think I’ll take my chances, and my nice ROI with this one.

Noah Gragson Top-10 Finish +390 (FanDuel)

He’s pulled this off three of the last four similar races this year. This line amounts to a 20.4% implied odd chance. That’s massive value for a driver who excels at races like this and who’s still looking for a job for next year as well.

John Hunter Nemechek Top-10 Finish +2700 (FanDuel)

It’s been a solid year for Nemechek but his best runs have come at the similar tracks to Nashville. That includes a P6 at Bristol, another concrete surface with the intermediate package. The other good showing was a P13 at Kansas. If he can replicate that speed at Nashville, he’s a threat for a second top-10 in the last four similar races.