It’s here! After 35 points races and 38 weeks traveling around the country since starting in Daytona in mid-February, the Championship race is upon us this weekend! The Ford Ecoboost 400 is playing host to the Championship Four this weekend, as well as the other 36 drivers in the field, as we crown a champion for 2019 after 267 laps around the 1.5-mile track. This is the last year, for the foreseeable future, that the championship will be held in South Florida as it moves to Phoenix in 2020 and elsewhere beyond that.

This track is the most-symmetrical 1.5-mile track we’ll see all season as it’s a perfect oval and no curve in either straightaway. There are 18-20 degrees of banking in the corners, its variable depending on which groove you’re driving in and the tilt in the straightaways is at a pretty flat,four degrees. Homestead is considered by most drivers to be a fair track for all types of drivers as there are multiple racing grooves on the surface and the surface also makes things pretty fair as it’s an older surface and so those drivers that want to wear out their tires can get to a lead but they’ll be reeled in eventually, while those that conserve tires while letting the rabbit get out in front but will reel them in eventually. In terms of the surface, it can be compared to Atlanta and Chicagoland pretty feasibly.

Starting Position of Winners

Starting Pos.Races WonStarting Pos.Races Won
12131
24141
32152
42221
53381
72  

Homestead-Miami has hosted 20 Cup races since the first race in 1999 and just twice has the pole-sitter won and they were back-to-back in 2001 and 2002. Every spot in the top-five spots in the grid have won multiple times with the most coming from the second starting spot.

Track Data

Drivers To Watch This Week:

Joey Logano ($9,800 DK, $12,000 FD)

Last year’s champion isn’t racing for the title this year but he was quite close, as long as Hamlin hadn’t won last week it’d have been him. Logano does have the win, last year, as well as three top-fives and four top-10s in the last five races at Miami. His 6.2 average finish is second in that span and his 116.4 average driver rating is second as well. As a pay down off the top four this week, he’s nice on both sites.

Brad Keselowski ($9,200 DK, $11,500)

Logano’s teammate has been solid here too with three top-fives and four top-10s in the last five at Miami and this year he’s been very good at this distance. He’s posted two wins and six top-fives in 11 1.5-mile race. This price point is nice for a guy that was a championship contender four races ago.

How about a couple of drivers making their last cup starts now:

Paul Menard ($7,200 DK, $5,500 FD)

Menard has a top-five and top-10 with three top-20s in the last five Homestead races. He also has a 3.6 position differential in that span. Menard has six top-20s in the last 10 in south Florida as well. The driver of the 21-car, for one more race, has six top-15s in 11 1.5-mile races this year with a 16.3 average finish making this price tag intriguing for a guy that might not get a lot of looks.

David Ragan ($5,700 DK, $3,500 FD)

Ragan is saying goodbye to full-time Cup racing at the conclusion of this race and he’ll hope to end on a good mark. He’s posted two top-20s in the last five trips to South Florida with a tasty positive-7.4 position differential in that span. He’s not been great at this distance in this package but the added performance bonus of his last race at this price makes him interesting.

Last Five Ford EcoBoost 400s

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Kevin Harvick583.42.65.415555
Joey Logano59.64.86.23.413445
Kyle Busch54.88.610.4-5.613444
Martin Truex Jr56.49.413.6-7.212234
Jimmie Johnson515.813.8123.811344
Brad Keselowski54.67.610.6-603444
Kyle Larson518.46.67.211.203355
Ryan Newman511.412.613.6-2.201234
Chase Elliott312.3107.74.601233
Paul Menard519.622.2163.601123
Denny Hamlin538.69.4-6.400455
Kurt Busch59.41212.8-3.400244
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Clint Bowyer52119.818.82.200233
Aric Almirola517.424.225.4-800113
Michael McDowell52826.623.24.800111
Austin Dillon516.814.814.62.200044
Ricky Stenhouse Jr514.21921-6.800012
Ryan Blaney41022.522.3-12.300002
David Ragan53227.224.67.400002
Chris Buescher327.727.322.35.400001
Alex Bowman426.526.8260.500001
Bubba Wallace1232521200000
William Byron1282324400000
Erik Jones210.517.524-13.500000
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Ty Dillon430.522.5264.500000
Landon Cassill531.82927.8400000
Matt DiBenedetto43231.830200000
Reed Sorenson336.734.330.36.400000
Daniel Suarez21419.532-1800000
Corey LaJoie23433.532.51.500000
Ross Chastain1393333600000
JJ Yeley332.734.734.3-1.600000
BJ McLeod1363535100000
Timmy Hill1383737100000
Ryan Preece1433838-5.500000
Daniel Hemric0000000000
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
John Hunter Nemechek0000000000
Drew Herring0000000000
Josh Bilicki0000000000
Joe Nemechek0000000000

  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. Driver
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRating
Kevin Harvick523747.413126.2100%124.6
Joey Logano515831.67214.498%116.4
Kyle Busch510621.213226.487%111.1
Martin Truex Jr510120.26112.283%98.2
Jimmie Johnson530.6326.468%89.2
Brad Keselowski58717.4367.292%103.9
Kyle Larson532464.823146.290%115
Ryan Newman500.020.472%86.1
Chase Elliott300.0196.395%95.1
Paul Menard500.0163.210%65.9
Denny Hamlin59118.25611.293%102.6
Kurt Busch510.2214.274%90.2
  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. Driver
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRating
Clint Bowyer500.020.456%72.3
Aric Almirola500.0193.822%67.1
Michael McDowell520.4153.03%55.8
Austin Dillon500.091.862%80.9
Ricky Stenhouse Jr500.0112.240%70.1
Ryan Blaney400.0112.839%65.3
David Ragan500.0112.20%49.7
Chris Buescher300.010.31%49.4
Alex Bowman400.051.32%56.9
Bubba Wallace100.000.00%53.8
William Byron100.033.01%61.1
Erik Jones200.010.032%71.1
  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. Driver
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRating
Ty Dillon400.030.811%56.8
Landon Cassill500.020.40%44.2
Matt DiBenedetto400.0100.00%39.8
Reed Sorenson300.000.00%36.2
Daniel Suarez200.000.037%60.2
Corey LaJoie200.021.00%34.3
Ross Chastain100.000.00%35.7
JJ Yeley300.000.00%36.3
BJ McLeod100.000.00%31.3
Timmy Hill100.000.00%25.7
Ryan Preece100.022.50%27.5
Daniel Hemric0000000
  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. Driver
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRating
John Hunter Nemechek0000000
Drew Herring0000000
Josh Bilicki0000000
Joe Nemechek0000000

Top-20 Drivers Over Last 10 Homestead-Miami Races

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Denny Hamlin1014.610.69.6522799
Kevin Harvick1012.46.94.57.917101010
Kyle Busch1012.58.412.6-0.114777
Martin Truex Jr108.88.510.1-1.314689
Jimmie Johnson1011.212.414.4-3.213677
Joey Logano1013.812.213.50.313568
Brad Keselowski10810.413.2-5.203578
Kyle Larson618.78.88.510.203366
Clint Bowyer101815.113502588
Ryan Newman1013.512.3130.502468
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Kurt Busch1010.615.615-4.401467
Aric Almirola816.919.519.3-2.401336
Chase Elliott312.3107.74.601233
Paul Menard1020.320.719.11.201136
Michael McDowell927.833.131.8-400111
Austin Dillon516.814.814.62.200044
Ricky Stenhouse Jr715.320.923.7-8.400012
David Ragan1028.627.327.51.100003
Ryan Blaney41022.522.3-12.300002
Chris Buescher327.727.322.35.400001

  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. Driver
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRating
Denny Hamlin1023423.4010610.6075%100.3
Kevin Harvick1031331.3018918.9089%113.6
Kyle Busch1031431.4023123.1086%107.8
Martin Truex Jr1017917.9017417.4087%105.4
Jimmie Johnson10595.90999.9073%96.7
Joey Logano1015815.80767.6066%93.8
Brad Keselowski1010710.70727.2076%95.7
Kyle Larson632454.0023238.6777%108.7
Clint Bowyer1010.10181.8066%85.2
Ryan Newman1030.3090.9074%87.3
  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. Driver
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRating
Kurt Busch10484.80565.6059%83.7
Aric Almirola800.00415.1342%77.1
Chase Elliott300.00196.3395%95.1
Paul Menard1000.00191.9020%68.1
Michael McDowell920.22151.672%44.4
Austin Dillon500.0091.8062%80.9
Ricky Stenhouse Jr700.00152.1432%67
David Ragan1010.10161.609%53.1
Ryan Blaney400.00112.7539%65.3
Chris Buescher300.0010.331%49.4

Top-20 Drivers At Similar Races (Atlanta, Chicagoland, Homestead)

  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Brad Keselowski208.47.610.2-1.839161717
Martin Truex Jr2011.58.98.72.839141718
Kyle Busch1989.29.2-1.237141517
Jimmie Johnson2015.612.313.52.13591415
Kevin Harvick208.26.58.4-0.2211161719
Denny Hamlin2011.411.913-1.625121516
Joey Logano2011.57.77.54.018151819
Alex Bowman1324.723.622.32.411346
Kyle Larson1813.39.79.53.808111516
Clint Bowyer2017.117.819.6-2.50571011
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Kurt Busch1911.510.810.80.704101517
Ryan Newman2010.813.614.9-4.10471115
Chase Elliott1114.59.39.15.4047911
Ryan Blaney1214.616.617.1-2.501248
Paul Menard2018.119.718.3-0.2011712
Aric Almirola2017.61920.1-2.5005813
Erik Jones815.415.515.8-0.400355
Austin Dillon1814.417.820.5-6.1001811
Daniel Suarez813.617.119.6-6.000144
Ricky Stenhouse Jr2014.319.220.4-6.1001412

  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. Driver
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRating
Brad Keselowski2031015.527813.993%104.8
Martin Truex Jr2029915.035117.685%103.8
Kyle Busch1967635.644623.580%106.3
Jimmie Johnson2030215.123111.668%92.6
Kevin Harvick20152476.268934.587%118.1
Denny Hamlin2025712.91949.774%94.3
Joey Logano2034517.327513.890%105.7
Alex Bowman13947.2534.123%65.6
Kyle Larson1850928.342223.478%101.3
Clint Bowyer20703.51125.656%79.2
  LapsLaps LedFastestFast LapsTop-15Avg. Driver
Driver#Led/RaceLaps/RaceRateRating
Kurt Busch1919910.51337.080%94
Ryan Newman20301.5995.064%85.2
Chase Elliott1111710.612211.186%97.1
Ryan Blaney12695.81028.558%78.7
Paul Menard2000.0572.926%68.3
Aric Almirola201085.41005.041%73.5
Erik Jones810.1162.053%77.6
Austin Dillon18221.2392.247%73.7
Daniel Suarez810.1141.852%70.9
Ricky Stenhouse Jr2030.2723.636%70.4

Team Averages At Homestead-Miami (Since Feb. 2017)

 Avg.  TopTop
DriverFinishRacesWins510
Team Penske7.25124
Furniture Row Racing83122
Chip Ganassi Racing11.754011
Richard Childress Racing12.65001
Stewart-Haas Racing13.138025
Roush Fenway Racing144001
Joe Gibbs Racing15.758024
JTG Daugherty Racing194000

Momentum

All 1.5-mile races included in the momentum tables

Drivers

Driver Momentum
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTopAvg. Driver
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520Rating
Brad Keselowski1111.114.813.6-2.52666989.2
Martin Truex Jr1117.910.58.99237911100.6
Denny Hamlin1110.712.113.5-2.82347992.6
Kevin Harvick11107.88.31.71581010110.8
Kurt Busch1111.210.611.3-0.11489998.7
Erik Jones1115.514.711.93.61489988.3
Joey Logano1116.51110.26.3146810100.1
Alex Bowman1114.113.310.1413581190.1
Kyle Busch1113.39.89.83.505889106.8
Chase Elliott1114.412.5122.404581092.2
Clint Bowyer1111.513.813-1.50368885.6
Kyle Larson111511.913.31.70359995
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTopAvg. Driver
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520Rating
Jimmie Johnson1110.513.915.2-4.70256883.9
Daniel Suarez1111.113.314.5-3.40246984.6
William Byron1111.311.313.1-1.801551088.7
Aric Almirola1113.812.211.8201481089.9
Ryan Blaney1114.513.517.5-30136688.8
Ricky Stenhouse Jr1113.816.817.7-3.90125879.1
Chris Buescher1123.116.713.99.200461172
Ryan Newman1120.118.718.31.80025766.3
Austin Dillon11916.518.7-9.70025875.6
Paul Menard1118.116.516.31.80016970.9
Matt DiBenedetto1122.921.622.60.30013458.4
Tyler Reddick121169120011178.1
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTopAvg. Driver
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520Rating
Ryan Preece1124.123.824.6-0.50001152.3
David Ragan1120.425.424.7-4.30001250.1
Michael McDowell1117.524.326-8.50001253.1
Corey LaJoie1128.529.527.80.70001143.5
John Hunter Nemechek129232180000055.5
Daniel Hemric1110.619.423.5-12.90000562.6
Ty Dillon112324.923.9-0.90000352.2
Darrell Wallace Jr1121.824.425.8-40000051.5
Matt Tifft1029.327.726.52.80000144.5
Parker Kligerman632.528.527.550000044.4
JJ Yeley435.331.5305.30000037.6
Ross Chastain1132.831.330.42.40000037.5
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTopAvg. Driver
Driver#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520Rating
Joe Nemechek337.733.731.36.40000032.5
Landon Cassill1131.732.531.9-0.20000035.6
Josh Bilicki337.334.3334.30000031.3
Quin Houff534.433.633.410000032.5
Reed Sorenson835.334.833.61.70000030.2
Bayley Currey53133.633.6-2.60000032.5
BJ McLeod83534.334.10.90000031.1
Garrett Smithley63635.234.71.30000031
Joey Gase638.837.336.32.50000025.8
Cody Ware433.83736.5-2.70000027.2
Timmy Hill4393838.30.70000025.3

Team

Team Momentum
  Avg.RunAvg.Pos. TopTopTopTop
Team#StartPos.FinishDiff.W5101520
Chip Ganassi Racing1613.111.312.30.817131818
Front Row Motorsports2422.425.825.7-3.300025
Hendrick Motorsports3212.612.812.60110202739
Joe Gibbs Racing3214.411.8113.3515273338
JTG Daugherty Racing1623.620.319.34.4004712
Richard Childress Racing169.81821.1-11.3002513
Roush Fenway Racing161717.818-1.10141015
Stewart-Haas Racing2411.611.811.9-0.3111223237
Team Penske241413.113.80.3311152025

Scoring Averages At Homestead-Miami

DraftKings

Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgDK Seas. Avg.
Kyle Busch44.2582.7550.7580.25-22.563.5047.1060.9
Denny Hamlin43.2528303159.535.6338.3549.78
Kevin Harvick82.55770.7569.58269.7572.3550.31
Martin Truex Jr65.576-2032.7520.570.7534.9557.29
Kyle Larson65.75115.2512385.54790.5087.3039.46
Joey Logano8751.55565.525.569.2556.9046.18
Chase Elliott485331.5  50.5044.1736.15
Ryan Blaney26-1.52.516.5 12.2510.8837.18
Brad Keselowski38.539.75-217643.539.1335.3541.53
Kurt Busch30.58414624.2519.2529.9536.93
Clint Bowyer54.53631-1834.545.2527.6028.94
Erik Jones-2.516   6.756.7531.53
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgDK Seas. Avg.
William Byron25.5    25.5025.5032.18
Aric Almirola3828.5-9-192433.2512.5029.82
Ryan Newman2245.5-31661.533.7528.4035.34
Jimmie Johnson35.51862.25434026.7539.7526.35
Alex Bowman-1 33.52519-1.0019.1333.86
Matt DiBenedetto2216.523.57 19.2517.2531.69
Daniel Suarez2-14   -6.00-6.0029.56
Paul Menard212844195424.5033.2029.55
Austin Dillon3840.539271839.2532.5024.05
Ricky Stenhouse Jr21.5242172222.7517.3021.6
Chris Buescher2533.523  29.2527.1730.22
Ty Dillon31241224.5 27.5022.8828.66
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgDK Seas. Avg.
Daniel Hemric       17.83
Ryan Preece   12  12.0023.57
Bubba Wallace25    25.0025.0023.26
John Hunter Nemechek       23.5
David Ragan2941.526281535.2527.9014.95
Ross Chastain17    17.0017.0022.66
Drew Herring       0
Michael McDowell14.520.55094217.5027.2017.55
Corey LaJoie1116   13.5013.5023.27
Josh Bilicki       12.39
Timmy Hill8    8.008.0013.12
JJ Yeley13  7413.008.0021.43
Landon Cassill14263581920.0020.4017.74
Joe Nemechek       18.58
Reed Sorenson 1117 3211.0020.0014.96
BJ McLeod10    10.0010.0015.66

FanDuel

Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgFD Seas. Avg.
Kyle Busch64.871.563.474.810.668.1557.0263.78
Denny Hamlin54.354.756.353.266.254.5056.9461.46
Kevin Harvick7566.271.776.877.170.6073.3659.20
Martin Truex Jr69.27815.755.547.273.6053.1263.03
Kyle Larson58.281.29171.961.769.7072.8053.16
Joey Logano79.768.268.969.948.273.9566.9860.17
Chase Elliott64.269.253.8  66.7062.4051.01
Ryan Blaney49.729.432.445.2 39.5539.1854.28
Brad Keselowski62.259.815.275.865.261.0055.6455.03
Kurt Busch55.738.556.363.252.347.1053.2055.87
Clint Bowyer68.757.749.6-458.763.2046.1450.02
Erik Jones30.443   36.7036.7050.22
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgFD Seas. Avg.
William Byron45.6    45.6045.6052.88
Aric Almirola59.250.514.88.448.254.8536.2250.09
Ryan Newman49.263.231.445.776.256.2053.1455.18
Jimmie Johnson56.237.976.660.260.247.0558.2248.38
Alex Bowman30.3 53.34538.430.3041.7553.10
Matt DiBenedetto42.937.842.430.3 40.3538.3551.43
Daniel Suarez31.217.5   24.3524.3550.67
Paul Menard415160.844.669.746.0053.4251.78
Austin Dillon59.259.758.351.742.259.4554.2246.40
Ricky Stenhouse Jr48.248.131.242.645.748.1543.1644.60
Chris Buescher46.65245.1  49.3047.9051.53
Ty Dillon50.144.434.345.6 47.2543.6050.17
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgFD Seas. Avg.
Daniel Hemric       42.02
Ryan Preece   31.7  31.7045.99
Bubba Wallace47.6    47.6047.6044.97
John Hunter Nemechek       50.75
David Ragan50.15741.94638.253.5546.6439.28
Ross Chastain36.9    36.9036.9041.52
Drew Herring        
Michael McDowell37.54365.832.455.240.2546.7840.54
Corey LaJoie32.937.6   35.2535.2543.30
Josh Bilicki       29.33
Timmy Hill29.9    29.9029.9027.83
JJ Yeley35.6  31.927.935.6031.8042.31
Landon Cassill36.74752.131.840.741.8541.6638.41
Driver20182017201620152014Last 2 AvgLast 5 AvgFD Seas. Avg.
Joe Nemechek       41.15
Reed Sorenson 28.237.4 49.728.2038.4333.47
BJ McLeod32.1    32.1032.1034.07

Weekly Rankings (1=Best, 40=Worst)

Race History, Momentum, Miami History, and Track Type History columns are ranked on average finishes in that span from best to worst. Scoring average columns are ranked on highest to lowest averages in those spans.

DriverDK$FD $Race HistoryMomentumDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Miami HistoryTrack Type History
Kyle Busch$11,400$14,00064554665
Denny Hamlin$11,100$14,00051410127749
Kevin Harvick$10,800$14,00011332112
Martin Truex Jr$10,600$14,0001022291353
Kyle Larson$10,200$13,000313141236
Joey Logano$9,800$12,000264133101
Chase Elliott$9,600$11,000410665424
Ryan Blaney$9,400$10,5001720282530241713
Brad Keselowski$9,200$11,500715988897
Kurt Busch$9,000$9,5009722181211138
Clint Bowyer$8,800$8,8001411771518717
Erik Jones$8,600$9,000209322734282012
DriverDK$FD $Race HistoryMomentumDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Miami HistoryTrack Type History
William Byron$8,400$10,0002012172118192014
Aric Almirola$8,200$8,200238131128291519
Ryan Newman$8,000$7,200102212101312711
Jimmie Johnson$7,900$7,5008181619651110
Alex Bowman$7,800$8,400245333123222222
Matt DiBenedetto$7,600$5,5002725222325262528
Daniel Suarez$7,400$8,0002917343435352817
Paul Menard$7,200$5,5001319192010101415
Austin Dillon$7,100$7,0001223891191221
Ricky Stenhouse Jr$6,900$6,5001521201524211920
Chris Buescher$6,700$6,0001716141417141723
Ty Dillon$6,500$5,0002427151720202224
DriverDK$FD $Race HistoryMomentumDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Miami HistoryTrack Type History
Daniel Hemric$6,300$4,0004026404040404016
Ryan Preece$6,100$3,0003528404029333535
Bubba Wallace$5,900$4,00015 181619151625
John Hunter Nemechek$5,800$2,0004024404040404040
David Ragan$5,700$3,5002229111314172426
Ross Chastain$5,500$2,0003136252626273128
Drew Herring$5,400#N/A40 404040404040
Michael McDowell$5,300$4,5001931242416162727
Corey LaJoie$5,200$2,5003034262927302932
Josh Bilicki$5,100$2,0004039404040404033
Timmy Hill$5,000$2,0003447313232343438
JJ Yeley$4,900$2,0003235272832323334
DriverDK$FD $Race HistoryMomentumDK Avg L2FD Avg L2DK Avg L5FD Avg L5Miami HistoryTrack Type History
Landon Cassill$4,800$3,0002638212221232630
Joe Nemechek$4,700$2,0004037404040403637
Reed Sorenson$4,600$2,0002841293322253031
BJ McLeod$4,500$2,0003343303031313236