DFS NASCAR: Overton's 400 Track Breakdown

Six races is all that separates this weekend’s race and the last time the Monster Energy Cup Series cars roared through Long Pond, PA. It’s the Overton’s 400 at Pocono Raceway this Sunday as the Tricky Triangle plays host for the second time this season. Last August, Pocono was the site of Chris Buescher’s one and only win in his career, as his crew chief made a great call to stay out late in the race. Like the June races over the last six years, there have only been a handful of races with a driver leading 60+ laps, and only one in which a driver led 70+ with Joey Logano leading 97. Sunday will also make the second week in a row on a 2.5-mile layout, however while the distance, and banking is the same, the lack of a fourth turn is still tricky to figure out.

Track Breakdown

Top-15 Drivers at Pocono Raceway Historically

Top-15 Drivers at 2.5-mile Tracks (since Feb. 2015)

Drivers to watch this week:

Kevin Harvick: Harvick has been a solid play at Pocono over the last few years with three top-fives and four top-10s in that span with 58 laps led. He also finished second here in June as he just couldn’t get passed Ryan Blaney in the last few laps. Overall he has 14 top-10s in 33 career races with 68 laps led, so just 10 more than the last five races. Harvick managed to finish sixth in the demolition derby that was last Sunday’s race, which is an encouraging sign given the track similarities.

Kurt Busch: I know, I know I talked about Kurt in the June race’s track breakdown, but guess what, he’s arguably the best driver on the track this week. He has three career wins (tied-2^nd), 14 top-fives (most), 19 top-10s (tied-most), and 538 laps led (third) in 32 career races here. Those numbers include a win, three top-fives and four top-10s in the last five races. Busch also ran fourth in June’s race.

Ryan Blaney: Blaney notched his first career win in MENCS here in June after holding off Kevin Harvick over the last few laps. He also has two top-10s in his three races run here and a low finish of 11^th. With the news breaking earlier in the week that he will be heading to Penske in the 12-car next year, he may want to lock up a second win on the year.

Erik Jones: Jones has been fast on all the long tracks this year, including this one in June. He moved up 12 spots in the Axalta 400 to finish third and nearly pulled off the win. Jones led 20 laps in that race and has the highest driver rating in the field, though it is just for one race, at 112.7. He qualified ninth last week but crashed out in the craziness of the race. His speed should once again be on display Sunday.

Ty Dillon: Dillon is my sleeper pick this week given his solid history in the last three races at Pocono and his $6,600 price tag in Draft Kings. His +9 position differential mark is second best in the field, only to Jones and his one race showing, Dillon has two top-20s and has finished between 18^th and 21^st each time. For a guy that cheap, a potential top-15 finish is some great upside.