MLB DFS Value Vault October 15: Luis Severino Leads New York's Bounce Back Effort
Enjoy it. I do not want to bring any negativity to the table, but it is very possible that today is the last MLB DFS main slate we see for the season with four games. It is a great Saturday full of four MLB Divisional Series matchups and three teams (the Houston Astros, Philadelphia Phillies, and San Diego Padres) have the ability to advance to either the ALCS or NLCS. Before we get to that though, let us set a winning MLB DFS lineup first. In the quest to do that we are going to have to save some salary cap space so here are some MLB DFS value picks to help do just that.
MLB DFS Value Pitchers
Tyler Anderson – Los Angeles Dodgers; DraftKings - $7,200; FanDuel - $8,700; Yahoo - $39
Anderson has faced the Padres four times this season and the left-hander allowed five earned runs in 24 innings while picking up two victories. The most damage that the Padres were able to do against Anderson in a start was two runs and now the Dodgers turn to him to push the series to Game 5. With a 2.57 ERA in 178.2 innings, it has been a strong season to date for Anderson who has been able to limit both walks (1.71) and home runs (0.71) per nine innings. While Anderson might not overpower the opposition, they also have a hard time squaring him up as evidenced by a barrel-rate of just 4.9% along with an average exit velocity of 85 degrees.
Luis Severino – New York Yankees; DraftKings - $8,100; FanDuel - $9,900; Yahoo - $35
Even when the Guardians have been victorious this postseason, three times, it has not come with a lot of offense as they have scored just six runs in those games and seven in total over four games, so that lines up to Severino’s advantage. The right-hander enters tonight’s start after throwing seven no-hit innings in Texas to close out the regular season which saw him finish with a 3.18 ERA in 102 innings. Severino struck out 112 batters and with the Yankees’ bullpen is not exactly a strength, New York is likely going to try and extract every possible piece of value out of him tonight.
MLB DFS Value Hitters
Alec Bohm, 3B – Philadelphia Phillies; DraftKings - $3,600; FanDuel - $2,700; Yahoo - $13
After picking up hits in each of the first three postseason games for Philadelphia this year, Bohm has gone hitless in his last two but that should change this afternoon against Charlie Morton. In 22 career at bats against the Atlanta starter, Bohm is hitting .409 in his career and the Phillies are quite the interesting option in general today as their lineup has had their share of success against Morton in their careers led by Bryce Harper who is hitting .417. Bohm had a solid season batting .280 with 13 home runs and 72 RBI and he is a cost-effective piece of any Phillies’ stack.
Yulieski Gurriel, 1B – Houston Astros; DraftKings - $2,300; FanDuel - $2,400; Yahoo - $12
At this point, Gurriel certainly has an established track record in the postseason as he is batting .257 with seven home runs and 36 RBI in 75 games. The Astros have a strong lineup, and batting sixth behind Kyle Tucker generally puts the first baseman in position to succeed. In Game One earlier this week, Gurriel came through with three hits (including a solo home run) and the veteran’s price is simply too low today.
Trent Grisham, OF – San Diego Padres; DraftKings - $2,700; FanDuel - $2,300; Yahoo - $8
After Grisham went deep for the third time in five games this postseason on Friday, I think it is time that we should be paying attention to him. I know he is facing a left-hander (who is touted above) in Anderson to start the game, but the outfielder should also get an at bat or two against the Dodgers’ bullpen and the pricing is simply too soft considering the success Grisham has had to begin the postseason.
Eddie Rosario, OF – Atlanta Braves; DraftKings - $2,200; FanDuel - $2,000; Yahoo - $7
I know that Rosario has been great this season batting .212 in 80 games, but the outfielder also hit .383 in the playoffs last season with three home runs, 11 RBI, and 11 runs scored. It looks like the wind will be blowing out in Philadelphia this afternoon and Rosario gets the platoon advantage against a pitcher in Noah Syndergaard who, aside from one inning earlier this series, has not pitched in two weeks. The fact that Rosario is minimum price is also huge here from the standpoint of roster flexibility.
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