MLB DFS Value Vault July 9: Lock In Carlos Carrasco at Home
Tonight’s slate is all over the place. DraftKings and FanDuel both have a nine-game slate starting at 4:05 (which is what we are using), but it’s technically not the main slate for DraftKings. Yahoo’s main slate also starts at 4:05, but it’s a 13-game slate that adds four late games. On the bright side, this slate offers plenty of value options at the plate today, I have four listed, but there are plenty more that I’m sure will be in the playbook and/or discussed in the MLB DFS Discord channel.
On the pitching end, I see two strong options in the mid-tier in Carlos Carrasco and Patrick Sandoval. Another positive is that it appears that we have no serious MLB weather concerns to worry about, but still keep up with the weather center leading up to first pitch as there are one or two potential spotty games with the biggest one being in Baltimore. Lastly, don’t forget to check out MLB implied runs totals using our Vegas Odds link and to use our MLB DFS lineup generator. Let’s dive into our MLB DFS picks today!
MLB DFS Pitchers
(DraftKings - $7500 / Yahoo - $37)
Carlos Carrasco is coming off a fantastic game on which he scored 26.6 DraftKings points, firing 5.2 innings of one-run ball with eight strikeouts in a win over the Rangers. That outing somehow made his DraftKings price drop by $100. He has been a different pitcher at home this year, pitching to a 3.64 ERA and .256 BAA, compared to a 6.11 ERA and .297 BAA on the road. The Marlins are a fine matchup as they rank 17th in runs per game and have the 10th highest strikeout rate in the league.
(DraftKings - $7400 / Yahoo - $36)
Patrick Sandoval has scored at least 13.3 DraftKings points in four straight starts and has a rock solid average of 16.1 PPG on the year. He comes into this game with a 3.09 ERA with 74 strikeouts across 70 innings of work. The Orioles are a good matchup as they rank 22nd in runs per game and have the fourth-highest strikeout rate in baseball.
MLB DFS Hitters
(FanDuel - $2400 / Yahoo - $8)
Jonathan India had back-to-back multi-hit games prior to yesterday’s 0-for-4. He has struggled this year, but he is still a good player that offers upside with his bat and with his legs. He is a reverse splits and this year is no different; he is slashing .242/.294/.347 against righties with both his dingers, both his doubles, and all 10 of his RBI, compared to .133/.212/.133 against lefties. Today, he faces Rasmussen, who also has reverse splits with righties posting a .433 SLG compared to lefties .304. He’s also been shelled on the road with a 5.10 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, compared to 1.65 and 0.83 at home, respectively.
(DraftKings - $2500 / Yahoo - $13)
From my value vault yesterday “Why is Jake Meyers the minimum price on DraftKings? I really don’t understand, but I digress. He is currently riding a 7-game hitting streak and slashing .360/.370/.640 in that span with a home run, two doubles, and nine RBI. He has moved into a more prominent spot in the Astros lineup as he was batting fifth in yesterday’s contest.” He proceeded to extend his hitting streak by going 2-for-5 with a run scored. He got a price bump today, but still very cheap and today he gets to face a lefty, which he has always been better against. And not just a lefty, but a lefty with a 5.47 ERA and 1.58 WHIP on the year.
(DraftKings - $2800 / FanDuel - $2700 / Yahoo - $13)
Keston Hiura is another repeat choice for me today. Yesterday I said “Hiura bashed a home run in his last game and he is very locked in at the dish right now with four double-digit DK point games in his last five games. He is averaging 9.3 dk ppg over his last 10 games, slashing .258/.378/.581 in that span with three home runs, two steals, and nine runs scored. He is a big time reverse splits guy too, slashing a robust .293/.414/.690 against righties with seven home runs and two doubles this year, compared to .148/.258/.204 against lefties with one home run and zero doubles (58 at-bats against righties, 54 against lefties).” Well he ended up going 2-3 with a walk and a RBI, scoring double-digit DFS points once again. He is in a great spot once again today with minimal change to his pricing.
(Yahoo - $12)
Yesterday’s silly underpriced Yahoo play was Tim Anderson and he went 2-for-4 with a HBP and a run scored. Today’s player in this spot is Francisco Lindor who, for whatever reason, is this cheap in a matchup against Braxton Garrett. Lindor homered in last night’s game and now has 14 dingers, nine steals, and 106 total R+RBI across 82 games of action. He has been far better at home this year, slashing .255/.362/.421 in New York at Citi Field, compared to .221/.273/.401 on the road. And lastly, Garrett is not a good pitcher and he has a 4.25 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP on the year.
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