What a great Saturday we have here, in that we are just waiting around for a blockbuster move leading up to the MLB Trade Deadline and playing some player props over on Underdog Fantasy. After crunching the numbers and sifting through the data, I’ve identified my favorite MLB player props for Saturday, July 29. My best bets of the day on Underdog Fantasy feature the Dodgers offense against Luke Weaver, Minnesota’s Bailey Ober taking on the Kansas City Royals, and the streaking Pete Alonso against Patrick Corbin and the Washington Nationals. Don't forget to check out the latest MLB weather report and the confirmed MLB lineups when placing those MLB betting picks, and our MLB daily projections and MLB Batter vs Pitcher page will help uncover the best matchups for MLB player props and your MLB DFS lineups. Let's dive into the top MLB player picks on Underdog Fantasy for Saturday, July 29th.

 

Luke Weaver, Cincinnati Reds - MORE than 5 Hits Allowed

I know Weaver is better on the road than at home, but five hits!? Really, Underdog Fantasy? On the road this year, he’s still served up a .323 BAA, 6.34 ERA, and 1.73 WHIP! Over his last seven starts, four of which have come on the road, he’s allowed 47 hits across 28 innings of work, including five or more hits in all but one outing! In fact, for the 2023 season as a whole, only four of his 17 starts have resulted in four or fewer hits allowed, with just one of those four appearances coming since the calendar flipped to June! Weaver has to head to Los Angeles to face a Dodgers team that has the fourth-best batting average against right-handed pitching in July (.279) and the league’s best wRC+ (139). Also, for what it’s worth, here are some notable stats for this game:

Good luck, Luke.

Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins - MORE than 5 Strikeouts

Ober has a 24.5 percent strikeout rate on the season, and on the road this year, he has a 2.41 ERA and 28.6 percent strikeout rate. Furthermore, the Minnesota right-hander has five or more strikeouts in five straight starts, but to be fair, two of those outings he had exactly five, which pushes at this line. He faced Kansas City earlier this year (4/29) and he posted six strikeouts across 5.2 IP, and this Royals team is about league average here in July in terms of strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Overall for the 2023 season, the Royals have the sixth-highest strikeout rate (24.1%) against right-handed pitching. Since June 1, Ober has a 38.5 O-Swing% and 13.4 SwStr%, which are healthy numbers for targeting strikeout props, especially against a team like the Royals.

Pete Alonso, New York Mets - MORE than 1.5 Total Bases

After a rough stretch in the beginning of the month, Alonso has turned it around over the last week or so. Over his last eight games, he’s slashing .400/.455/.933 with seven extra-base hits (4 HR), a 24 percent barrel rate, and 48 percent hard hit rate. He gets a juicy matchup against an old friend Patrick Corbin, who has served up a 5.55 ERA and 1.51 HR/9 over his last six starts. Right-handed hitters have a .483 SLG against Corbin this season, and this particular right-handed hitter is 14-for-40 with five home runs and a .500 wOBA against him. There’s some weather in the area, so keep that in mind, but it seems like a late start is more likely than a full postponement.

 

MLB Best Bets

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