Underdog Fantasy MLB Picks For Today, 7/11: DFS Projections & Plays
For Thursday, July 11th, our Underdog Fantasy MLB picks feature the starting pitching matchup between the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays.
The Yankees send southpaw Nestor Cortes to the mound while the Rays look to Shane Baz, who will be making his second start of the season, in an entry with a 3.75x multiplier.
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Nestor Cortes Underdog MLB Pick: Less Than 30.5 Fantasy Points
I don’t know what it is about pitching on the road, but Cortes is barely a Major League caliber pitcher on the road this season, posting a 5.63 ERA with opponents hitting .295 with a .521 slugging percentage and a .372 wOBA. This isn’t a one-year problem, either. Cortes, for his career, has a road ERA a full 1.5 earned runs higher.
Today, he faces a Tampa Bay Rays lineup that is much better against lefties than righties, owning the 10th highest wOBA and 8th best batting average on the year. Given the track record and the matchup, we are taking Cortes to score less than 30.5 fantasy points.
Shane Baz Underdog MLB Pick: More Than 15.5 Pitching Outs
Baz has been a top 100 prospect for what seems like forever, peaking at #8 back in 2022. Tommy John surgery forced him to miss the 2023 season, but he is finally back with the Major League club, and he made his season debut last week against the Rangers where he tossed six innings, allowing three runs and striking out six.
We need just 5.1 innings pitched from Baz here today, something he should have a good chance to do as he faces a struggling Yankees lineup. Baz has the stuff to be a top-end starter and the fact that he went six innings in his season debut gives me confidence that the Rays will let him pitch without limitations.
Total Multiplier - 3.75x
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