Underdog Fantasy MLB Picks April 28: Nick Castellanos Stays Hot for Philadelphia Phillies Tonight
Welcome to another Friday slate of Major League Baseball games! We have a full night of MLB on tap as we ring in the weekend and tons of MLB Underdog picks at our disposal. Our top MLB Underdog Fantasy plays and MLB player props today feature Philadelphia Phillies OF Nick Castellanos and Los Angeles Dodgers SP Dustin May. Check out these free MLB player props and MLB daily picks on Underdog Fantasy for “Pick'Em” contests tonight. Don't forget to check out the latest MLB weather report and the confirmed MLB lineups when placing those MLB betting picks. Plus, the MLB daily projections and MLB Batter vs Pitcher page will help you find the best matchups for MLB player props and MLB DFS lineups. Now, let's dive into the top MLB player picks on Underdog Fantasy for Friday, April 28th.
MLB Underdog Fantasy Top Picks April 28
Nick Castellanos, Philadelphia Phillies – OVER 0.5 Singles
After starting the season slow, Nick Castellanos is hot at the plate over the past few weeks. The Philadelphia Phillies outfielder is hitting .444 (12-for-27) over the past seven games and .356 (21-for-59) over the past 15 games. His season-long batting average is now up to .333 after sitting below .200 in early April. Castellanos is on a current eight-game hitting streak and has hit safely in 16 of the past 18 games. Banking on over 0.5 singles is risky because we need him to hit a single and not an extra-base hit, obviously. However, 20 of his 33 hits this season have been singles – including nine of his past 13 hits being single-baggers. Tonight, he’ll face Houston Astros left-hander Framber Valdez. It’s a tough matchup on paper, but Valdez is poised for some negative regression as his 4.19 xERA and 3.38 FIP are notably higher than the 2.25 ERA. Castellanos has hit lefties better than righties in his career, and he has a .391 BA vs southpaws this season.
Dustin May, Los Angeles Dodgers – UNDER 5.0 Strikeouts
Outside of one bad outing, Dustin May has been pretty strong on the mound for the Los Angeles Dodgers this season. The right-hander has a 3.07 ERA and 0.92 WHIP across four starts thus far. Even so, we’re fading him tonight in a tough matchup against the dangerous St. Louis Cardinals offense. The Cards have just a 21.2% strikeout rate vs. right-handed pitching in 2023 (8th-best in MLB). Over the past week, that lower K rate against righties has stuck around at 22.3%. This continues a trend from last season when St. Louis was tough on right-handers with a 19.9% K rate against them (3rd-lowest in 2022). As for May, he’s totaled only 19 strikeouts in 29.1 innings pitched this year with a subpar 16.7% K rate. The Dodgers righty has been under five Ks in three of five starts so far and had exactly five punchouts in another. Plus, May could see some negative regression soon with a low BABIP (.195) and HR/FB rate (3.3%) with a 3.73 FIP compared to his 3.07 ERA. Expect the Cardinals to limit his K upside tonight.
MLB Best Bets
If you are looking for some MLB Best Bets today, make sure you check out betting picks from Howard Bender for today's slate of games.
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