MLB DFS Underdog Fantasy Picks Today, 9/2: Baseball Projections + More
Monday’s MLB DFS Underdog Fantasy picks focus on a pair of MLB DFS projections as Seattle Mariners starter Logan Gilbert faces the Oakland Athletics and New York Mets righty faces the Boston Red Sox in an entry with a 3.96x multiplier.
MLB DFS Underdog Fantasy Picks, Monday, 9/2: MLB DFS Projections
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Logan Gilbert MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: More Than 18.5 Outs
We start things off with Logan Gilbert of the Seattle Mariners as he offers an appealing option for a higher pick in tonight’s game with a boosted payout multiplier. Gilbert has consistently gone deep into games, finishing with more than 18.5 outs in six of his last seven starts. His endurance and efficiency on the mound have been a key factor in his success, as he's developed into a reliable workhorse for the Mariners' rotation.
Gilbert's previous performance against tonight's opponent, the Oakland Athletics, also supports a higher pick. In his lone start against the A's earlier this season, Gilbert recorded 21 outs, demonstrating his ability to pitch deep into the game against a lineup that ranks near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories. The Athletics' offense is particularly vulnerable to right-handed pitching, providing Gilbert with an excellent opportunity to continue his streak of deep outings.
Given the matchup against a struggling A’s lineup and his recent track record of consistently pitching into the seventh inning or later, taking Gilbert for more than 18.5 outs tonight looks like a strong bet.
- Pick: More than 18.5 Outs
Ty Madden MLB Underdog Fantasy Pick: More Than 2.5 Earned Runs
Ty Madden had a rocky road at Triple-A this season, sporting an ERA near 8.00. While his debut in the majors showed promise, with just one earned run over five innings, a deeper look into the numbers suggests this may have been more luck than skill.
Madden's expected ERA (xERA) of 4.60 indicates that he benefited from some fortunate circumstances, such as only allowing four hits and three walks in that outing. These numbers suggest that his ability to limit damage may be short-lived. Adding to the case for Madden to give up more than 2.5 earned runs is the strength of the Red Sox offense. Over the last 30 days, Boston has been scorching hot against right-handed pitchers.
They rank in the top 10 in weighted on-base average (wOBA), isolated power (ISO), and batting average. This potent lineup is likely to exploit Madden's control issues, especially if his walk rate remains elevated. Given these factors, it’s reasonable to expect that Madden will struggle to contain the Red Sox offense, making the higher than 2.5 earned runs allowed pick a strong play.
Total Multiplier - 3.96x
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Daulton Varsho picked up three hits, three RBI and a homer in a win over the Angels on Thursday.
Varsho has only played in seven games this year, but they’ve been seven good ones. He’s homered three times already, and his slugging percentage is a remarkable — and entirely unsustainable — .727 over 22 at-bats. Varsho has been a mediocre offensive player in his two seasons with the Blue Jays, but it’s possible at the age of 28 he’s having a breakout campaign. Far from a guarantee, but possible.
Taylor Ward hit a two-run homer in a loss to the Blue Jays on Thursday.
Ward, 31, gave the Angels a 2-0 lead with a two-run homer off Chris Bassitt in the first inning. He’s now gone deep in two of his last three games, and it ‘improves’ his slash to .181/.224/.391. Ward has been one of the most hot/cold players players in the sport over the last few years, so fantasy managers who can afford to make some roster moves may want to look at Ward while the going is good.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. picked up three hits and scored twice in an 8-5 win over the Angels on Thursday.
Guerrero also drew a walk. It gives the first baseman multiple hits in back-to-back games, and it’s the third time in May that he’s reached that mark. That’s helped raise his average from .268 to .295, and the only thing fantasy managers can be disappointed with is his .432 slugging percentage. That number should continue to climb as the season unfolds, but Vladdy Jr. has had some inconsistent seasons when it comes to power production.
Chad Green picked up his first save of 2025 with a scoreless ninth against the Angels on Thursday.
Green got the save after Jeff Hoffman worked in back-to-back games — and struggled — in the first two contests against the Angels. He struck out two and looked the part while needing just nine pitches to get through the inning. Hoffman should remain the closer, but Green is on his tail if the struggles were to continue.
Chris Bassitt allowed five runs — four earned — while working six-plus innings against the Angels on Thursday while picking up a win.
Bassitt allowed three runs over the first two innings on a pair of homers, but settled down over his next four frames. He came out to work the seventh, but ended up being charged for two more runs after leaving the contest. The 36-year-old veteran has forged a 3.35 ERA and outstanding 49/8 K/BB ratio over the first quarter of the season, but this wasn’t him at his best. He’ll get the Rays next week if the rotation order stays the same for Toronto.
José Soriano allowed three runs over five innings while not factoring in the decision Thursday against the Blue Jays.
Soriano left with a 4-3 lead, but it was erased quickly after his departure. The 26-year-old was not exactly dominant in his outing with eight hits allowed and four free passes, but he did strike out six to help balance things out a smidgen. Soriano takes an even ERA of 4.00 into a scheduled start against the Padres in San Diego on Tuesday. There should be better options for that one.