Two-Start Pitchers/Pitching Streamers: Week 2

Welcome back, Major League Baseball! And welcome back to action, fantasy baseball owners! It feels odd, to be sure, to start the MLB season in late July, but that is the state of affairs in 2020. Let us simply rejoice in finally having baseball back in our lives.

With the abbreviated season, we are combining the 2-Start Pitching article with the Streaming Pitcher article this year. So, the first part will of this piece will detail the dual start options each week, and then the focus will shift to those arms that can be relied upon as waiver wire pickups throughout the week. 

Please realize that these articles feature most recent rotation information available when the article is written, but that circumstances do change due to weather conditions, injuries, and general craziness with managers. If a pitcher listed here as having two starts ends up with one (or perhaps none) in the upcoming week, apologies but this article is meant to provide analysis, it is up to the manager to set the lineups or rotations.

Without further adieu, here are this week’s two start pitchers:

These four arms are the best options to wind up and just let them go and do their thing on the mound. If you own any of these pitchers, you have done well in your drafts, whether those took place late last winter or recently. This is a weak week for top 2-Start options, obviously, but not entirely bereft of talent in the upper tier. With regard to Civale, the Cleveland starter is owned in around one-third of both Yahoo and ESPN leagues, so you may be able to grab a potential ace from under the noses of your fellow competitors if you act quickly.

Josh James , Houston Astros

The hard throwing righthander has made the Astro rotation, and is a superb potential source for strikeout production. Although he needs to work on his control to be an effective mound presence for Houston. His fastball tops out in the high 90s, which when coupled with an 88 MPH change and 86 MPH slider, will keep batters off their comfort zone. He is a much better pitcher away from home, so his second start in Anaheim is looking much more intriguing, although facing the Mariners at Minute Maid Park is not overly daunting.

J.A. Happ, New York Yankees

Happ was looking better in the spring than he did for the Bronx Bombers during last season, so there is that hope for his prospects in this shortened season. He is just an average strikeout producer (7.81 K/9 over 161.1 IP in 2019, possibly down due to a downtick in fastball velocity), and is a fly ball pitcher in a homerun haven of a home park. Plus, his first outing is in Philly, another potentially dangerous park for those pitchers who do not produce extravagant groundball numbers. He carries risk, but there were those Grapefruit results to keep in the back of your mind.

Aníbal Sánchez , Washington Nationals

Sanchez reinvented himself in 2018 after decidedly unimpressive results over the prior three seasons, and he did regress closer to the mean in 2019 but was still a useful arm as a middle to back of the rotation option for fantasy purposes. He has a couple of good matchups on tap for the reigning World Champs, with Toronto visiting to open the week, and then heading to pitcher-friendly Miami to close out the scoring period. Last season, his strikeout rate fell while his control became a bit more wonky. Regression to mean definitely could be in store again, but with good matchups in store, he is worth a shot this week, especially with two starts.

Luke Weaver , Arizona Diamondbacks

The venues line up nicely for the Diamondback righty, heading off to San Diego to open the week, then getting the Dodgers at home. Expect plenty of Ks from the righthander, although recall that forearm issues kept him sidelined for much of the prior year. There is certainly risk but then again, this season’s circumstances have allowed him ample time to recover from his injuries. 

Griffin Canning , Los Angeles Angels

Lots of righthanders in this week’s group of hurlers being profiled, and the Angels’ 24-year old fits right into that mix. Canning showed a propensity to miss bats in 2019, and flashed decent enough control, but the flyballs tended to leave the park at too great a clip to make him entirely trustworthy as rotation piece in fantasy. A 4.58 ERA over 90.1 innings (18 appearances, 17 starts) is not overly impressive, but the 1.22 WHIP is a useful ratio stat, and he will look to improve his mound presence in his second year in the big leagues, and work on establishing one of his four pitches as a dominant offering. Getting Houston at home to close out the week is a bonus, too.

Adrian Houser , Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee righty finished 2019 with a flourish and cemented a mid-rotation slot with that performance. His home/road splits indicate that the second of his two trips to toe the rubber has the better potential in Week 2 when he faces the Cards at Miller Park, although heading to Pittsburgh is not a huge obstacle for the 27-year old. He features four offerings with a mid-90s fastball and generates a good share of groundballs from opposing hitters.

Dylan Cease , Chicago White Sox

The Southsiders are hoping the 24-year old righthander can settle in to the middle of their rotation, and overcome a significant control problem that offsets his superb ability to generate swings and misses by the opposition: 9.99 K/9, 4.32 BB/9 over 73.0 IP in 2019. He has a mid-90s fastball, and his offerings have the desired greater than 10 MPH delta with his off-speed offerings, so control is the key to him making the next step in being an effective arm for the Pale Hose. Both starts this coming scoring period are away from Guaranteed Rate Field, and for the relative road warrior Cease, that is a good omen for his two-start week.

Chris Bassitt , Oakland Athletics

Bassitt joins the Oakland rotation to take the place of Jesús Luzardo , who is building up his stamina after testing positive for Covid-19 and quarantining as a result. Bassitt could certainly transition back to bullpen duty after Luzardo returns to the rotation, so use him now, and look for him to pitch well at home against the visiting Angels and then also in Seattle, with both venues conducive to keeping the ball in the yard. Bassitt did see an uptick in his HR/FB ratio, but most pitchers had a similar experience with the juiced ball last season. He has good strikeout potential, with an improved fastball velocity in 2019 increasing his K/9 to a serviceable 8.81 last year.

Wade Miley , Cincinnati Reds

Miley is the last member of the middle tier, and the pitch-to-contact groundball inducer should fare well in his new home park in Cincinnati this season. The matchups in Week 2 are both decent, although taking on the Tigers in his second start stands out as the better time to employ his talents. He will not provide much in the way of strikeout potential (7.53 K/9 last season) and his control can hurt him (1.34 WHIP over 33 starts in 2019), but he is an effective arm for the most part, exactly why the Reds inked him to a two-year deal this winter. Use the southpaw when the matchups dictate, such as when he has two decent matchups as this week provides.

These are the hurlers that you basically want to avoid, despite the allure of taking the ball twice during the season’s first full week of action. The damage to your ratio stats is a constant concern in this shortened season, so do not act precipitously despite the appeal of the extra innings that could be racked up in Week 2. The top arm listed in this tier, Plesac, would normally be at the base of Tier 2, but the matchups are awful and thus, it is recommended that you leave him be for this scoring period.

Potential Streaming Options for Week 2

There is no promise that each game day will provide a streaming option. First of all, the pitcher must be available in at least 50% of leagues to be a viable candidate to snag off the wire. Then, the pitchers discussed above are not included as they have a different sort of value, even though some might be available as free agents in your league. Plus, some days the matchups and/or venues just do not figure as positive enough factors to favor plugging the arm into your rotation, even for one start. That all being said, here are this week’s best streaming candidates:

Tuesday, July 28

Miles Mikolas StL vs MIN (TBD)

The matchup is at home, so that factors into this appearance in a positive manner. Last season saw a dramatic rise in his HR/FB ratio (16.1% as opposed to a palatable 9.2% in 2018), so facing the Twins is a concern on Tuesday, but none of his other metrics changed dramatically and perhaps that was an outlier that will readjust.

Wednesday, July 29

Johnny Cueto SF vs SD Chris Paddack

Cueto did not get the decision in his first start against the Dodgers, but pitched well, allowing just one tally over the four innings he tossed, handing out five hits. He is coming off Tommy John surgery (TJS) and was not looking great last September, but with the layoff due to the pandemic, and the shortened season looming, he is a decent option to stream, although due to his offensive backing, do not expect many victories.

Thursday, July 30

Marco Gonzales SEA @ LAA Dylan Bundy

Gonzales is not a tremendous recommendation, as his home/road splits are not favoring a start on the road in Anaheim, nor is he a huge counting stat guy with a below average striekout rate. His first start saw him run out of gas against the host Astros, yielding four runs (three earned) on five hits and a walk. He does tend to give his owners innings, though, so in minimum IP schemes, he does provide value. Talk about faint praise, eh?

Friday, July 31

Garrett Richards SD @ COL (Jon Gray )

Sure, he is pitching at Coors Field, but Garrett Richards has always been a SP1 if only he can stay on the field. His health concerns are still in play, but in his first start of the season, he should be good to employ in your rotation. In fact, pick him up and stock him away on your roster, with an expectation that a 60-game season is perfect for the perennial IL resident.

Vince Velasquez PHI @ TOR (TBD)

It will be interesting to see exactly where this game is played but expect the Philly righthander to provide Ks for his owners, with a better than K per inning rate over his career not likely to change now. Take a look at how he fares in his first start against the Marlins in the finale of the Philadelphia opening series before jumping in on Friday. 

Sean Newcomb ATL vs NYM Rick Porcello

Newcomb has a tentative hold on a starter’s role in the Brave rotation to open this season, after being relegated to the bullpen last year. He gets to pitch at home, which he turned into a strength last season, so there is that positive for this matchup. He has a good mid-90 MPH fastball in his arsenal, allowing him to provide good strikeout value, but his control gets him in trouble. He needs to generate grounders to be effective, and has been adept at that skill set, so he makes for a decent option to stream, assuming his first start does not send him back to the bullpen. As with Velasquez above, look to see how he fares against the same opponent and opposing hurler in his first start (not often that takes place).

Feel free also to send any starting pitching or other fantasy baseball questions to ia@fantasyalarm.com for a private response to your specific issue. The more detail you can provide about your team and league, including settings (H2H vs roto, points or categories, weekly or daily moves, roster size, league size, etc.) the better the response will be suited to your individual situation. As ever, good luck and Godspeed in all your fantasy endeavors.