Target Watch: Time for Plan B

With the rash of injuries that took place in Week 8 – Keenan Allen, Steve Smith and Calvin Johnson, just to name a few – it’s time to take a long look at the target distribution throughout the NFL and try to figure out where most of them are going to go now that some of the bigger names are on the shelf. While you’d like to think the next in line is geared up for a substantial boost, you have to remember receivers are not just interchangeable cogs in the machine. The quarterback/receiver on-field relationship is filled with intricacies and nuances that only come from extensive work together. Sure, there are some instances where things just click immediately, but in most cases, it doesn’t. Just ask anyone who drafted Davante Adams in the fourth round this year, expecting him to put up Jordy Nelson-like numbers.

Before we get to the actual targets, allow me to share some thoughts on the two most notable situations which will warrant your attention as you look for Plan B.

San Diego Chargers – So Keenan Allen has a lacerated kidney and is done for the season. Malcom Floyd stepped up in a big way last week with four catches for 92 yards and two touchdowns. That gives him two 90-plus yard games in his last three games. He’s the guy, right? Probably. You have to figure he’ll see an increase in targets (he’s averaged six per game over the last three). But will he see the 11.1 targets per game Allen saw? No. Maybe he jumps to the 8-to-10 range, but you have to figure Antonio Gates will see an increase and maybe even Stevie Johnson sees a few more balls thrown his way. Hell, the Chargers could actually go with two-TE sets and get Ladarius Green into the mix more. Allen’s targets will be re-distributed, most of them probably to Floyd, but don’t over-inflate his value just yet.

Baltimore Ravens – This situation is probably a little easier to predict than the Chargers' as the Ravens simply don’t have much in the way of receiver depth. With Steve Smith done for the year, Kamar Aiken should start to see a significant increase in targets. If Breshad Perriman were healthy, I’d be excited about him, but he’s not and that leaves Marlon Brown and Chris Givens as the next in line. Um. Who are two receivers I have ZERO interest in? The Ravens could also go the two-TE route and have both Crockett Gillmore and Maxx Williams out there but that’s not much of a step up from Givens and Brown. Aiken is the guy you want. Everyone else can sit on the wire.

Now let’s talk numbers.

Week 8 Target Leaders

Attack of the Tight Ends…Again

Heath Miller, TE PIT – Welcome back, Ben Roethlisberger! Miller saw an outstanding 13 targets, and while there is little expectation that a number like that will be repeated, it does bode well for Miller to at least see a fair number of targets moving forward. He and Big Ben have an outstanding on-field rapport and now that they’re both healthy, it looks like that bromance could be reprised.

Jacob Tamme, TE ATL – With Leonard Hankerson injured and Roddy White being ignored, Matt Ryan needed another target for when he just couldn’t get the ball to Julio Jones. The Falcons haven’t utilized the tight end this much since Tony Gonzalez so it’s tough to know if this was a one shot deal or something that may continue. Tread lightly with your expectations of Tamme this week.

Coby Fleener, TE IND – He saw double-digit targets for just the second time this season and he could be in for more now that the Colts have made the switch at offensive coordinator, firing Pep Hamilton and bringing in Rob Chudzinski, a coach notorious for favoring the tight end.  Look for Chudzinski to get this offense back on track and look for Fleener to be one of the prime beneficiaries.

Overall Targets Leaderboard

Target Percentage Leaders

Julian Edelman, WR NE – If there was concern that the return of Brandon LaFell would eat into the targets for Edelman, your concerns have been assuaged for the time being. Tom Brady’s favorite target maintained his 26-percent target rate and stayed ahead of Rob Gronkowski for the team lead. Even better, though, is that his 15 red zone targets leads the team as well. It used to be that Edelman was a PPR monster but his value in standard leagues dropped because of a lack of touchdowns. But this season, he’s already got six scores and continues to see a strong number of looks everywhere on the field.

Ted Ginn, WR CAR – As expected, Ginn breaks into the top 50 for overall targets this week and his 21.8-percent targets rate entrenches him as the No. 2 target on the team. The on-field rapport between Cam Newton and Greg Olsen won’t be broken, but Ginn has proven to be a reliable option lately and he’s being rewarded in the play-calling. He’s still nothing more than a WR3, but if the targets continue to rise, so will his value in fantasy leagues.

Red Zone Target Leaders

Let’s take a different approach this week and rather than celebrate those who are seeing all the red zone action, let’s talk about a pair of guys who are likely to see a reduction in their work inside the 20.

Anquan Boldin, WR SF – He was Colin Kaepernick’s favorite target and was racking up the red zone looks even more this year than he had last season. But now the switch to Blaine Gabbert could change all of that. Boldin, if healthy, will still see his share of the work, but look for Gabbert to try and mix things up with Torrey Smith, Quinton Patton and new No. 1 tight end Vance McDonald.

Gary Barnidge, TE CLE – Anyone who has read my stuff or listened to me on the air knows how much I love Barnidge this season. Ever since that breakout game against the Raiders earlier in the season, Barnidge has been tearing it up with 100-yard performances and touchdowns galore. Unfortunately, things might change a little as the Browns start Johnny Manziel. That’s not to say that it’s a definite, but usually when a backup quarterback takes over midseason, he tends to look for the guys on the field he’s been working with the most in practice.

Potential Risers

Potential Fallers

Week 9 Match-Up to Watch

Chicago Bears @ San Diego Chargers – The 49.5 over/under indicates a high-scoring affair and the Bears and the Chargers have the 24^th and 25^th-ranked pass defenses, respectively. We’ve already discussed the Chargers' passing attack which catches a break with the Bears this week. Keenan Allen will be missed, but it’s a soft enough matchup for Philip Rivers to get everyone involved. On the Bears' side, you’ve got Jay Cutler slinging the rock to his favorite target, Alshon Jeffery who returned in style last week. Throw in Martellus Bennett, Marquess Wilson and even Eddie Royal, and we could be looking at a ton of passing yards and a few trips to the end zone.