Target Watch: Beware the Tight End?

With so much talk of the pass-heavy NFL and with the way fantasy owners were drafting wide receivers, many were expecting the first week of the NFL regular season to be explosive. But was it? Not really. Sure, there were some moments and guys like Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins rewarded their owners, but for the most part, this first week was a giant snooze-fest with regard to aerial assaults.

In fact, of the top 10 wide receivers off the board in drafts this year, only two, Jones and Antonio Brown, actually lived up to their draft position. Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas got hurt, Odell Beckham suffered at the hands of a weak Giants offensive attack and the rest were all just ho-hum in the realm of fantasy production. Your biggest producers game from the second tier of receivers – guys like Hopkins and Jordan Matthews – and the tight end position.

And speaking of tight ends, let’s please rein in the over-excitement. The big day for Rob Gronkowski is something you can probably rely on regularly. I’ll even go so far as to say that you can expect consistent strong performances for Travis Kelce.  But when it comes to guys like Tyler Eifert, Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Jason Witten, you need to be wary of over-valuing them right now. We saw a similar outburst from tight ends last season when players such as Marcedes Lewis, Brandon Myers and Jared Cook were all atop the Targets Leaderboard and as the season progressed, all fell off the map. I’m not saying that it will happen, but before you make moves to blow your FAAB budget on a Tampa Bay tight end, make sure that you’re strong enough depth-wise at the other positions to make such a bold move. He could just as easily put up three catches for 22 yards and no touchdowns next week.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at the Targets Leaderboard after Week 1 and see who’s there to stay and who’s just a one-week wonder.

Targets Leaderboard

Target Leaders

Keenan Allen, WR SD – The biggest question coming into the year for the Chargers was whether Allen’s rookie season or his sophomore slump was the true representation. Many skeptics said that Allen, who some considered a bit of a reach in the third round back in 2013, simply wasn’t talented enough to match his first season’s production, but he was still a highly-coveted receiver on draft day this year as there were continued expectations of Philip Rivers airing the ball out all year, as well as the addition of Stevie Johnson to help draw away some coverage. It seems unlikely that we can expect such ginormous weeks out of him regularly, but if Rivers is going to lean on him this heavily, he should be a strong play if he can remain healthy.

T.Y. Hilton, WR IND – Expectations were high coming into the season, but a bruised knee knocked him out of his Week 1 match-up against the Chiefs and he is expected to miss some time while he recovers. X-rays on the knee came back negative, so the Colts don’t seem to be too worried, but check his status moving forward and see if he is going to be available for the Colts Week 2 Monday night game against the Jets. Considering he could be a game-time decision, you may want to have a contingency plan already in place.

Jordan Matthews, WR PHI – He did everything his fantasy owners expected from him, save for maybe a little end zone dancing. But Matthews looks to be Sam Bradford’s favorite target and while there are plenty of hungry mouths to feed in that Eagles offense, Matthews appears to be the alpha who gets first crack at that offensive teat.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR HOU – Just like Matthews in Philly, so goes the way for Hopkins. With Andre Johnson now in Indianapolis, Hopkins becomes the go-to receiver. The problem for him though is the upcoming switch to Ryan Mallett under center. Hopkins should lose his place in the feeding line, but it is possible that for the first couple of games that Mallett starts, the ball gets spread around a lot more.

Rashad Greene, WR JAC – In an unexpected turn of events, it was Green and not Allen Robinson or Allen Hurns who led the Jaguars in targets this week. It’s very possible that the Panthers were throwing different defensive looks the Jags way and took away Hurns and Robinson as targets, but that might not even jibe this week. Though he did pass his concussion tests, Green is also dealing with a back issue and might be considered a game-time decision in Week 2. If he’s out or even limited, expect the wealth to be spread out a lot more this week.

Target Percentage Leaders

Julian Edelman, WR NE – Not even with a healthy Gronk should this come as a surprise to you. Edelman was the most-targeted receiver on the Patriots last season and he will continue to be a strong play in PPR leagues. The only drawback, and this is also something you should note for guys like Brandin Cooks, Eric Decker and Jarvis Landry, is that they may see mad targets all year, but the red zone looks seem to go elsewhere.

Brandon Marshall, WR NYJ – The Jets passing attack still needs to find an identity. Marshall is the leading man for now, but Decker is likely the one who will be relied upon to consistently move the chains. That should really affect Marshall’s value though as he will continue to see the red zone work.

Jordan Reed, TE WAS – With a revamped Dolphins apss rush, Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins was forced into more check downs than you would normally like to see. That kept Reed in the mix throughout the game and as a result, started to see an increase in work downfield as well. He’s got the ability to be a strong target in this offense, especially if DeSean Jackson misses significant time, but his health has always been an issue so he needs to prove his reliability and durability first.

Tyler Eifert, TE CIN – This one game is what Eifert-lovers have been clamoring for over the last two years, but injuries have knocked him out each season. The heavy target percentage may lighten as A.J. Green starts getting additional looks, but he should still be one of the most highly targeted players moving forward. Neither Marvin Jones nor Mohamed Sanu had done much and the door has opened for Eifert to step through and really be a playmaker. Of course, he’s going to have to stay healthy first.

Jarvis Landry, WR MIA – Just as it was stated earlier with Edelman, Landry is going to be a big part fo the Dolphins passing attack, but he is a chain-mover more than he is a red zone threat. He’ll see plenty of targets and will be a fantastic role player in PPR leagues, but if you’re looking for touchdowns, they may be tough to come by.

Red Zone Target Leaders

We’ll be looking at Red Zone Target Percentage more in the coming weeks, but for now, let’s just stick with who is seeing the most looks inside the 20.

Rob Gronkowski, TE NE – GRONK SMASH!!!!  “Nuff Said.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR HOU – Most targeted receiver all day for Houston, including inside the red zone. The only question we have to ask is how much will it change once Ryan Mallett is under center? Film at 11.

Vincent Jackson, WR TB – The red zone pecking order will likely change once Mike Evans returns and is healthy. While VJax is the veteran, his catch rate is consistently awful and will need to reall y earn that trust inside the 20.

Matt Forte, RB CHI – Remember when everyone said that Forte would drop off considerably after Marc Trestman left? Yeah, who’s laughing now? He’s still one of the elite pass-catching backs in the game and should be treated accordingly.

Jimmy Graham, TE SEA – Exactly what we thought would happen. Graham probably won’t see the work between the 20’s that he usually sees, but the red zone work is likely to be abundant.

Potential Risers

Potential Fallers

Week 2 Match-up to Watch 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints -- The Saints pass defense has never been the team's strong suit, so with opening game jitters out of the way, Jameis Winston should see a nice opportunity to connect with Seferian-Jenkins and Vincent Jackson once again. If Mike Evans is back, he should see some solid red zone looks. For the Saints, come on....did you see what Marcus Mariota did to the Bucs pass defense last week? Now imagine Drew Brees with Cooks, Marques Colston and Brandon Coleman at home in the Superdome. Points bonanza!