You would think that this strategy would be easy and need little explanation but every year I see problem players get drafted aggressively high. I don’t know if this is because people run out of ideas quickly during their drafts or if they just really don’t realize the kind of trouble these players will present throughout the season.
Maybe it is just a reflection of where we are at in our society. If everybody has flaws as deep as Norv Turner’s pot marked face, then we all will ignore the hideous glaring zit square in the middle of somebody’s forehead. But let’s keep this about problem NFL players, shall we?
First off, let me define what a “problem player” is. A problem player is someone whose performance will be effected by circumstances beyond his on the field skills. There can be a variety of reasons for these circumstances to be sure. These circumstances include but are not limited to frequent injury, playing time issues, contract issues, high profile personal relationships, not getting along with coaches or teammates, have intense outside interests other than football and are involved in anything relating to performance enhancing drugs. They can also be something as seemingly minor as constant social media indiscretions. Hunting down Instagram hotties may be fine for you or I but when this is happening during practice or a game it creates a lot of problems inside the locker room.
Then you have the players who are constantly in trouble off of the field. These are the guys who have outstanding arrests, DUI’s, legal issues, domestic issues or any other trouble that may result in suspension or expulsion from their team or the NFL. You might joke that this would include about 90 percent of NFL players and truth be told you are not that far off. There is a reason that ProFootballTalk has a countdown of how many days it has been since an NFL player has been arrested.
Players who are constantly in trouble off of the field never, ever have prolonged success on the field. Think about the fantasy players who have been on your teams for multiple seasons. How many of them have had multiple run ins with the league or the law? These players will ruin your season in one fell swoop so why take on the risk?
As I say, if you stay away from all of these types of players aren’t you ruling out the majority of the NFL? Sadly, this is a fair point. The idea here is not to completely rule out every single player who has had an on or off the field issue before rather limit your exposure to this risk. Most fantasy teams can handle and will face at least one big snafu whether it be a season ending injury, player suspension or other discipline. But if you make a habit out of drafting these problem prone players (say that three times fast!) you are going to crush your championship dreams.
For instance, Le’Veon Bell is suspended for the first fourgames of the 2016 regular season at least as of the time of this writing. He was also suspended for the first three games of the 2015 season. He also suffered a terrible knee injury last season that ended his year after just six games played. Last season I said that his one drug offense was not a significant red flag and because it was a seemingly one time issue, I was fine with taking him early. This year? No. Fucking. Way.
My poster boy for problem players used to be without question Percy Harvin. If you drafted Harvin in anything higher than the 10th round you are a complete sap. Harvin averaged 11.5 games played over his six year NFL career. He was perpetually questionable. Of his first 55 games played in his career, Havin left the game with an injury eight times. What’s even more amazing is that Harvin was listed as questionable, doubtful or out an amazing 55 times (out of a total of 112 possible) in his career. That is 49 percent of the time! You can’t win fantasy football with players that you can’t depend on and absolutely nobody ever won a fantasy football championship because of Percy Harvin.
Who are some of the problem players today? Well I have already mention the new poster boy in Le’Veon Bell even though he is not even remotely close to a Percy Harvin or even good ole Johnny Manziel.
This season marks the return of Browns WR Josh Gordon after two complete seasons off because of failed drug tests and run ins with the law. Gordon still has to serve a four game suspension to start the season but will be eligible to play for the first time since 2013 after that. Do you think it is a good idea to draft a four-time drug offender after a two-year layoff who plays for the Cleveland Browns? If you do, then you are a bad decision making water-head that is destined for eighth place finishes every year. Gordon is what Charlie Murphy would call a “habitual line stepper” and there is no room for him on any fantasy team outside of being a late round flier.
Some other problem players heading into the 2016 season are obvious like RGIII, Arian Foster, Adrian Peterson, Darren McFadden and Jordan Reed. Others arenot so easy to identify. Players like Tom Brady, Sam Bradford, LeGarrette Blount, LeSean McCoy, Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall, Michael Crabtree, Rob Gronkowski and Vernon Davis each present an abnormal amount of risk. Obviously there are levels to each of these players and the risk they each present. But you absolutely have to understand the downside to each of them before you put their label on your board.
You won’t be able to avoid every NFL player that has ever been arrested, smoked the ganga or failed a PED test. There are just too many of them to expect that. But if you minimize your exposure to problem players you’ll greatly increase your chances of competing with a full assortment of impact players on your roster and the less free agent money or waiver priority you will spend in the process.