$1000 Tournament for Fantasy Alarm Depositors only.  Use Promo Code: Alarm

One of the things I love about playing PrizePicks is that the game always changes. Not only is each slate unique, but each sport offers a unique challenge as well. This week we take a break from our NBA and PGA picks to take a stab at winning $500.

PrizePicks is offering an MLB Opening Day tournament exclusively for our readers. When you sign up at PrizePicks using promo code “ALARM” and make a minimum $20 deposit you will automatically be entered in Thursday’s Opening Day tournament. The tournament itself is simple: pick eight MLB over/unders for Thursday (plus a tiebreaker). The tournament pays out $500 for first place, $300 for second place and $200 for third place. It’s that simple. To make it even more simple, I’m going to pick all eight over/unders (plus the tiebreaker) right here.

Before we get to the picks, it is important to review the scoring. Hitters cannot lose points, so you don’t have to worry about someone striking out a lot. You get two points for a walk, three points for a single and five for a double. I won’t lay out all of the scoring here, but you also get two points for a run scored or an RBI.

Pitchers actually do lose points, with -3 per earned run. They gain three points per inning pitched and per strikeout, with six points for a win and four for a quality start. Be sure to keep the scoring in mind when you consider these over/unders:

Carlos Correa at Tampa Bay Rays (Blake Snell , L)

Projected Fantasy Points: 4.5

UNDER

Correa was scratched from Tuesday’s lineup due to neck stiffness, and I’m concerned that even if he plays Thursday, his neck could stiffen up again and cause him to leave the game early. Correa traditionally starts off somewhat slow, with a .347 career wOBA in April, and I’m not very optimistic in his chances against the reigning AL Cy Young.

Hyun-Jin Ryu vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Projected Fantasy Points: 30.5

OVER

The Dodgers are -157 to win this game, and it might not be hyperbole to say Ryu needs to get the win to top 30.5 fantasy points. We have Hyun-Jin Ryu projected for 6.3 innings, 2.06 earned runs and 6.94 strikeouts. If Ryu reaches those numbers, he’ll easily top 30.5 fantasy points even without a win. Arizona’s lineup is not scary, and if the Diamondbacks insist on playing Jake Lamb , we can probably pencil him in for two strikeouts just by himself.

Cody Bellinger vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (Zack Greinke , R)

Projected Fantasy Points: 3.5

OVER

The problem we are going to have with these over/unders for hitters is when a hitter goes over, he’s probably going to go waaaaay over, and we’re going to feel silly. If Cody Bellinger scores a run, or gets and extra-base hit, or reaches base twice, he goes over. It feels too easy. Bellinger is 7-for-21 in his career against Zack Greinke , though it is notable he has never walked against Greinke. There are just too many ways for Bellinger to go over, though I would be lying if I was I wasn’t worried he will go 1-for-5 with nary an extra-base hit, RBI or run scored.

Joey Votto vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (Jameson Taillon , R)

Projected Fantasy Points: 5.5

UNDER

Joey Votto has been an OBP machine in his career, though the power was noticeably lacking last season. I think he will probably bounce back this season, but even if I loved the matchup against Jameson Taillon , 5.5 fantasy points is a lot. One double alone won’t cut it, and he probably needs to reach base multiple times or record multiple Runs+RBI to get there. Votto is batting .208/.387/.210 in 31 plate appearances against Jameson Taillon , and that makes me feel better about going under.

Trevor Story at Miami Marlins (José Ureña , R)

Projected Fantasy Points: 4.5

UNDER

Story is 1-for-5 in his career against José Ureña , but that one hit was a home run. That illustrates the danger of going under with Story. That being said, Story is slashing .233/.290/.416 on the road against righties in his career. April is also historically one of Story’s worst months.

Byron Buxton vs. Cleveland Indians (Corey Kluber , R)

Projected Fantasy Points: 4.5

UNDER

Buxton is 1-for-6 with five strikeouts against Kluber, and I don’t think anyone would be shocked if he matches that line Thursday. It will also make a difference where Buxton is batting in the lineup. I have seen him projected to bat ninth against righties, and if that holds true, I will feel far better about going Under. That being said, Buxton could blow up the Under with one successful stolen base, and that is what worries me.

Andrew Benintendi at Seattle Mariners (Marco Gonzalez, L)

Projected Fantasy Points: 6.5

UNDER

This is our highest total so far, and while you could probably argue Andrew Benintendi is facing the weakest pitcher of any of the hitters so far, you would have to ignore the fact he’s facing a lefty. Marco Gonzales has allowed a .251/.299/.372 line against lefties in his career. Andrew Benintendi is batting .234/.310/.331 against lefties in his career. With my luck, Benintendi is going to hit an RBI double against Hunter Strickland , but I don’t like his chances against Gonzales.

Kris Bryant at Texas Rangers (Mike Minor , L)

Projected Fantasy Points: 5.5

OVER

I literally don’t know how high this number would have to be for me to go UNDER. If you put the number at 14.5, I’d probably have to think about it. Mike Minor is not good, and in this case, the platoon splits favor Kris Bryant . Not only that, but I am a total Kris Bryant optimist this season. He was clearly not healthy in 2018, and there is no reason to believe that is the case now.

Tiebreaker: Blake Snell vs. Houston Astros

PrizePicks Points: 21.0

Houston is -138 in this game, so I won’t project Snell for a win. The big question is if he gets a quality start. Snell failed to get more than 15 outs in either of his starts against Houston last season, so I’ll say no quality starting. I’m projecting 5.0 innings, 3.0 ER, and 5.0 K for 21 fantasy points.

$1000 Tournament for Fantasy Alarm Depositors only.  Use Promo Code: Alarm