With the Opening Day for 2025 fantasy baseball right around the corner, the last fantasy baseball shortstop spotlight piece of the spring will be a piece on MLB bold predictions. Shortstop has become one of the most important positions in fantasy baseball, and there are any number of strategies to use when filling out fantasy baseball rosters. 

These predictions include some players who are high up the 2025 fantasy baseball rankings and have high fantasy baseball ADPs, as well as fantasy baseball sleepers from the SS position. 

 

 

 

2025 MLB Bold Predictions: Fantasy Baseball Shortstops

Looking at 2025 fantasy baseball mock drafts, valuable MLB shortstops can be found throughout the draft. My standard approach is to try and grab one of the elite players early and then take a player I am high on later in drafts such as Xavier Edwards, Jeremy Pena, or Ezequiel Tovar. 

But no matter what the preferred strategy is, use these SS bold predictions as events that may not be likely to happen, but certainly are within the realm of possibility for each player.

 

 

 

Seven MLB Shortstops Hit 30 Home Runs

Five MLB shortstops hit at least 30 home runs in 2024: Gunnar Henderson, Francisco Lindor, Willy Adames, Bobby Witt, and Corey Seager. While I think Adames falls off this list in 2025 (more on that below), I believe three players jump into this elite power tier at the position. 

Henderson, Witt, Lindor, and Seager should not have too much trouble repeating the 30-home-run pace, assuming health all season. Adames has some new park factors that are complicated, but players like Elly de la Cruz, Oneil Cruz, and (surprise!) Ezequiel Tovar are ready to step into that tier of shortstops. 

Elly de la Cruz and Oneil Cruz are both Statcast darlings who have some of the top bat speeds and exit velocities in MLB. They were both less than 20 home runs away in 2024 and if either one can shave even a fraction of their high strikeout rates down, 30 home runs is very much in reach for both. 

Ezequiel Tovar hit 26 home runs in 2024 and benefits from playing half of his games in Coors Field. He increased his launch angle from 13 degrees to almost 19 degrees in 2024 and hit a flyball 46% of the time. That’s a combination that can easily turn into 30 dingers over the course of a full season. 

 

 

 

Pirates SS Oneil Cruz Goes 30/30

Speaking of Oneil Cruz, this is the year he is launched into superstardom. After missing almost all of 2023 with an injury, Cruz roared back in 2024, playing 146 games and going 21/22 with a .259/.324/.449 slash line. Both his expected batting average and expected slugging percentage were higher than what he actually produced, revealing that there is another level to Cruz that is lurking. 

Cruz is 88th percentile or higher in sprint speed, exit velocity, barrel rate, hard hit rate, and bat speed. His hit chart shows that he has power and discipline to all fields, and he has done all this by the age of 25. 

Now 26, Cruz is entering the prime of his career and looks poised to break new barriers in both power and speed. As mentioned before, if he can just shave some of his 30% strikeout rate off, he will have many more opportunities to get on base, hit for power, and steal bases. 

Another encouraging sign for Cruz this spring is that he is walking more than 18% of the time. If that trend continues into the regular season, 30 steals will be a breeze for the Pirates outfielder.

 

 

 

Willy Adames Hits 10 Fewer Home Runs, Steals 15 Fewer Bases

Willy Adames had a career year in 2024, and he parlayed it into a seven-year, $182 million contract with the San Francisco Giants. The problem, I fear, is that Adames is quickly going to learn that hitting in San Francisco is not like hitting in Milwaukee. 

After 32 home runs and 21 stolen bases (both career-highs), the 29-year-old Adames is going to see steep declines in both categories. First, the home runs. American Family Field was the sixth friendliest for hitting home runs over the last three seasons, according to Statcast. Oracle Park has ranked dead last in that time for home runs, checking in at 22% below league average. 

Then there is the matter of his steals. Looking past the fact that Adames never had more than eight steals before he stole 21 last year, the Giants’ philosophy on running is not the same as Milwaukee. The Brewers ranked second in the majors with 217 steals in 2024. The Giants were 29th, with just 68 all year. 

The park is going to knock out the power, the team will make sure the steals don’t repeat. Don’t pay for Adames expecting a repeat of 2024. 

 

 

 

Astros SS Jeremy Pena Goes 20/20

In case you haven’t been diving into Houston Astros Spring Training statistics, I’m here to tell you that Jeremy Pena has been the Astros’ hottest hitter for about a month. So far this spring, Pena has hit .475/.475/.825 in 40 plate appearances with four home runs and a stolen base. For all the hype rookie Cam Smith has received in camp, Pena has been better. 

Pena already has a 20-home run season under his belt (2022), and he has a 20-steal season (2024). In his prime-age 27 season, it’s not a stretch to think this is the season he combines the best of those two considering the gains he has made in his approach at the plate. 

Jeremy Pena rarely walks (4.9% walk rate for his career), but he has decreased his strikeout rate each of his three seasons in the majors. That culminated in just a 17% strikeout rate last year, and his best contact rate ever at 77.1%. Pena also improved his barrel rate, launch angle, and exit velocity from 2023 to 2024, and he is finally getting the ball in the air on almost a third of his batted balls. 

At pick 189 in fantasy baseball drafts, there is almost no downside to securing Pena in hopes that he puts everything together in 2025.