We’re officially entering crunch time! Millions of fantasy GMs will be having their drafts across the next two weeks, and everyone is searching for the best 2025 fantasy baseball sleepers. 

We’ll be looking at a fantasy baseball outfielder who is going extremely late in drafts but has the upside to hit 30 home runs if everything goes right. 

 

 

 

Matt Walner Fantasy 2025

Matt Wallner is being scooped up outside of the top 260 overall and is the No. 70 outfielder in terms of 2025 average draft position (according to FantasyPros). If you’re one to buy into Spring Training or early form, Wallner is tied for the lead with six bombs so far in the spring.

Wallner doesn’t run, and he will likely ding your batting average a bit. But in the wise words of “Big Al,” he hits dingers. He’s a fantastic source of late raw power, and the power hitter should have a fairly clear path to 400+ at-bats for Minnesota.

 

 

 

Matt Wallner Stats

Across the last two seasons at the MLB level, Wallner has a massive 18%-barrel rate and a ridiculous 50% hard-hit rate. And to nobody’s surprise, his career fly-ball rate is well over 40%. Let’s paint a bigger picture. Among qualified outfielders, Wallner’s 2024 50% hard-hit rate would have ranked fourth, and his barrel rate would have ranked third.

That being said, Wallner has really struggled against southpaws, and for that reason, he was seldom used against them. Wallner is a career .144 hitter with just three home runs in 108 plate appearances against left-handed pitchers. But he’s a world-beater vs. righties, hammering 26 home runs with a .277 batting average in 472 career plate appearances.

Wallner has even more appeal if you’re playing in a league that takes on-base percentage (OBP%) into account. The Twins’ slugger posted a .372 OBP last season, which is the same number that Mookie Betts posted. 

Of course, Wallner is not Betts by any stretch of the imagination, but he certainly has some tools despite a strikeout rate that pushed 29% last season. Wallner has posted walk rates above the league average between 9.2% and 11% over the last couple of seasons, which helped him post a career-best .385 wOBA. 

Wallner is set up for more success due to the pitching personnel of the American League Central Division. The Royals, Guardians, White Sox, and Tigers are only projected to have four total left-handed starting pitchers in their rotations (at least to begin the season). 

 

 

 

Fantasy Baseball Projections 2025: Matt Walner

Is the rest of the industry buying more Wallner? Our 2025 fantasy baseball projections here at FA have Wallner hitting 18 home runs and scoring 89 runs. Those projections are the lowest of its industry peers in terms of home runs but is very aggressive in terms of his runs-scored projection. Perhaps there’s a happy medium somewhere? 

I’m fairly optimistic that Wallner can improve on his poor performance vs. left-handed pitchers at the MLB level. After all, we’re dealing with some pretty small sample sizes, even though they’ve been brutal.

However, between Double-A and Triple-A during the 2021 season, Wallner slashed .257/.378/.533 against lefties and hit 10 home runs in 185 plate appearances against them. If we can squeeze a fraction of that success vs. LHP out of him, he could be the outfield bargain of the year.

We can pencil Wallner in for a healthy number of home runs (let’s say between 18-25), and between 60-70-ish RBIs. If everything clicks, I think that home run number could reach 30, but he’ll need some luck and positive regression vs. lefties from his minor-league days to get there. Wallner is a very low-risk pick due to his average draft position, and he deserves to be higher up on the 2025 fantasy baseball outfield rankings.