Yandy Díaz has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball. He is anchored at the top of the Tampa Bay Rays lineup yet does not seem to get love in the fantasy baseball community. Is he underrated and by the end of the season will have many fantasy managers kicking themselves for not picking him up on a mid-July waiver write?  Is he just a light hitting third baseman that will never realize his power potential? These questions come at a perfect time since it’s “Third Base Day” in the Fantasy Baseball Player Spotlight Series. Every Thursday I break down a different MLB third baseman for your fantasy baseball lineups. Some weeks it is a prospect and others it may be a “Sell High”, “Buy Low” or even totally avoid at all costs-type player. Today I am going to dig into Yandy Díaz, the red hot third baseman of the Tampa Rays, and try to figure out why he is still available in so many fantasy baseball leagues.

 

 

Yandy Díaz Fantasy Baseball Player Spotlight

 

Yandy Díaz defected from Cuba in 2013 at the age of 21. His third try was a charm as he was caught and arrested in two previous attempts. He signed with the Cleveland Indians in August of that same year and less than two years later was an All-Star at Double-A Akron. By 2016 he was named Triple-A International League Rookie of the Year after slashing .325/.399/.461 with an .860 OPS. That big Triple-A season earned Diaz a non-roster invite to the Indians 2017 spring training and after hitting .458 with a 1.252 OPS he was named the Indians starting third baseman.

Diaz became a depth piece in Cleveland and was traded to the Rays in December of 2018. At the time of the deal Diaz was 27 years old with one MLB home run to his resume. He also had posted only a 94 OPS+ rating, which was six percent below league average offensive production. The Rays though, known for a keen talent eye, saw something in Diaz in that they gave up their former number five prospect in the entire organization to acquire him. 

Diaz has been plagued by injuries in the first three seasons as a Ray. He only played 79 games in the 2019 season due to injuries but cemented himself into Tampa Bay Rays lore when he came back from a foot fracture and hit two bombs in the 2019 AL wild-card game as the Rays beat the A’s 5-1. Then of course 2020 was the COVID abbreviated season and to make matters worse Diaz dealt with more injuries and only played in 34 games slashing .307/.428/.386 with an .814 OPS.

It is only fair to dissect his 2021 season and now we are at the halfway point of the 2022 season. Diaz entered this season with a career .308 batting average on balls in play with a hard-hit rate north of 40%. With a career .370 OBP his .405 slugging percentage is pretty low, and it has led to a .775 OPS- solid but nothing spectacular. His flyball percentage was 17.1% (5% lower than the MLB average) and his career launch angle is now 4.3%, a far cry from the 15-20% that is ideal to get the most out of a player’s power. 

So why is Diaz having such a good first half of the 2022 season? There is no swing and miss in his game and the numbers prove it:

     Games        OBP      SLG    WRC+
2017/18      88        .361      .366      97
2019      79        .340      .476      118
2020-21      166        .368      .387      117
2022        79        .416      .404      148


 If you watch Diaz bat now, he is staying in his back hip a bit more and he is raking bullets all over the field. He is moving the ball with backspin. He is now hitting the ball as hard as he has ever hit it, and is controlling the strike zone while not swinging and missing nearly as much as before:

           2017-2021              2022
Strikeout %              16.4%              10.3%
Whiff %              19.4%              12.8 %


 

Currently Diaz is slashing .303/.414/.402 with an OPS of .816 while his career is .276/.370/.405 with a .775 OPS. He is an on base machine but is still not hitting home runs. He is bucking the current trend of power hitters’ rule and currently only has three on the entire season. His flyball rate is only 27.3% (lowest ever in his career when he has had more than 180 plate appearances) yet his .339 BABIP is more than 26 points over his career. 

Third base has been lacking in fantasy baseball circles and it makes a lot of sense to take a look at Diaz who is less than 45 % owned in most fantasy leagues. Over his last 15 days he is hitting .471/.500/.647 with nine doubles and is slashing .400/.435/.600 with six RBIs over the last seven days. It is now a fact that he does not have the power of a traditional corner infielder, but he is sitting in the top 5% of the league with a 114.3 MaxEV and 14.8% BB% plus his .297xBA and .367wOBA are Top 10%. If you need home runs Diaz is not your guy but the guy is on fire and there is no reason to think that he can’t help any fantasy team in the second half of the season.

 

 

 

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