It’s not often we see a breakout fantasy baseball season from a 32-year-old pitcher who’s already on his fifth different team. Well, that’s what we have in Los Angeles Dodgers starter Tyler Anderson as he continues his All-Star campaign. If you drafted Anderson late or acquired him earlier this season, you know full well how good he's been. Even better if the Dodgers’ left-hander was your darling fantasy baseball waiver wire pickup back in April. You can bet that Los Angeles fans are glad that Anderson is in town considering over half the rotation has landed on the MLB injury report at some point this year. Can he stay near the top of fantasy baseball rankings and MLB projections for the rest of this season? Should you try to “sell high” on Anderson in a fantasy baseball trade if he’s on your roster? Let's try to all these questions and more in the latest Fantasy Baseball Player Spotlight series. 

 

 

Anderson is in the midst of one of the best fantasy baseball seasons among MLB starting pitchers this year. Going into Sunday’s start, he was rocking a 13-1 record with a 2.72 ERA and 1.00 WHIP across 19 starts (21 total appearances). Though he’s only averaging 7.1 strikeouts per nine and a 20.1% K rate, Anderson is limiting baserunners with a .217 batting average against and low 5.0% walk rate. If you’re in a league that counts wins, those 13 victories are surely helping out big time – and playing in front of a loaded Dodgers lineup certainly helps. We’ll also take that ERA and WHIP every time for a pitcher most added off of the waiver wire.

Anderson’s All-Star numbers are even more impressive once you consider what he’d done in his MLB career before coming to Los Angeles. This is a guy who had a 4.53 ERA just last year and didn’t post an ERA below 4.30 since his 2016 rookie season. He’s on his fifth different team since 2019 and wasn’t even in the Dodgers’ rotation at the beginning of the season. It’s a complete career turnaround. 

Just check out his year-by-year numbers (we're taking out 2019 because Anderson only made five starts while dealing with a knee injury).

SeasonTeamERAFIPWHIPBAAK/BB
2016COL3.543.591.29.2663.54
2017COL4.814.671.33.2633.12
2018COL4.554.571.27.2442.78
2020SFG4.374.361.39.2511.64
2021PIT/SEA4.534.371.25.2563.53
2022LAD2.723.331.00.2174.04

So how is Anderson finding so much success on the mound this season for the Dodgers? Let’s look at some advanced stats that tell us more of the story. 

The Los Angeles southpaw boasts a 3.15 xERA and 3.33 FIP, which prove that his 2.72 ERA isn’t really a fluke. His .255 BABIP is pretty low and suggests not much luck is involved in that .217 BAA. Meanwhile, Anderson’s 78.1% left-on-base rate and 6.7% HR/FB rate are both very ideal for a starting pitcher to keep the run-scoring at a minimum. As mentioned earlier, his very low 5.0% walk rate is a career-best mark and among the 90th percentile of big league pitchers this season.

As for his Statcast profile, some of Anderson’s numbers are among the upper echelon of MLB pitchers this season. 

The 85.3 mph average exit velocity and 29.9% hard-hit rate are among the 95th and 94th MLB percentile ranks, respectively, and are career-best marks since his rookie season. A big reason for those low numbers is Anderson’s deadly changeup. Since his fastball only averages 90 mph on the gun, the lefty needs to have good off-speed stuff to be effective. That’s definitely the case.

Anderson’s 79 mph changeup, which makes up 32% of his pitch arsenal, is allowing just a .159 batting average and .181 wOBA against. The change also has a 38.5% whiff rate and 28% K rate while boasting a -11 run value. It’s one of the best off-speed pitches among MLB starters this season and is miles better than it was a year ago. Last season, his changeup allowed a .250 BA and .328 wOBA against while making up 24.6% of his pitch repertoire. So, Anderson is not only throwing it more often, but he’s been more effective with it now that he’s in a Dodger uniform. 

After watching those clips, you’ll notice Anderson’s unique delivery involving a series of leg kicks. This is nothing new for most of us that have watched the left-hander pitch over the years. Still, it’s impossible to ignore the funky delivery and you have to wonder how much it throws off opposing hitters’ timing at the plate. 

Now what can we expect from Anderson moving forward in our fantasy baseball lineups? Well, you have to believe he’ll continue being effective on the mound. Again, the 3.15 xERA and 3.33 FIP suggest the Dodgers’ left-hander will keep up most of his dominance when it comes to preventing runs. Though he’s not normally a high-strikeout pitcher in most outings, he can give you just enough in that area while keeping his ERA and WHIP low. 

There is one thing to worry about in the final months of this season, though. That is, Anderson’s role in the Dodgers rotation down the homestretch. Yes, he’s certainly earned a spot as a starter despite beginning the season out of the bullpen. Still, Los Angeles has Dustin May and Walker Buehler returning from injury soon. Plus, Clayton Kershaw could return from his own injury at some point shortly. While that shouldn’t push Anderson out of a starting role, it could result in the Dodgers going to a six-man rotation in the final month or so heading into the postseason.

Los Angeles is eying a World Series title and to do so, it will need the starting rotation to be as healthy as possible – especially when it comes to Buehler and Kershaw. It’s very possible we see a six-man rotation with Buehler, Kershaw, Anderson, May, Julio Urías, and Tony Gonsolin when all are healthy. Andrew Heaney is also a viable starting pitcher when he’s not injured as well. 

Whether it’s a deeper rotation or possibly shorter outings from starting pitchers, it could ultimately result in Anderson being less valuable overall from a fantasy baseball perspective. The shorter outings from starting pitchers, if the Dodgers choose to do so, may take some win opportunities away from Anderson if he’s being pulled in the fifth at times. As for the six-man rotation, that would mean less two-start weeks for Anderson and the rest of the LA starters. 

These may seem like nitpicking, but losing a start or a recorded win here and there would certainly make Anderson a less valuable fantasy asset. Yes, he’ll presumably still give you a low ERA and WHIP when he is out there, but those stats may be across fewer innings and starts down the stretch. Don’t be afraid to sell high on Anderson in trades if you roster him right now. The return in a trade could give you a quality hitter and/or a solid starting pitcher who may end up being better for fantasy in the final months of the season. 

 

 

Fantasy Alarm is the home of all things Fantasy Sports. Bringing you the best Fantasy Football, Fantasy Baseball and Fantasy Basketball content all year long. Be sure to also check out the best fantasy promo codes on offer today!

Related MLB Links: