We are officially entering the all-out sprint to the end of the 2022 MLB regular season. The MLB Trade Deadline is upon and one big name at the catcher position that is embroiled in trade rumors is Willson Contreras of the Chicago Cubs. Last week we did a light preview of his fantasy baseball outlook if he were to be dealt. As of Sunday night there had been no sign of Contreras being on the move yet, but it does seem likely, but you can stay up-to-date on all the latest trade deadline news with our 2022 MLB Trade Deadline Tracker. As for today’s Fantasy Baseball Player Spotlight Series, I wanted to take a look at Kansas City Royals catcher, Salvador Perez.

 

Perez recently came back from missing over a month following surgery to repair ligament damage in his thumb. And he returned in a big way Friday night giving the Royals the lead in the fifth inning with a three-run bomb against the Yankees. The Royals would lose the game and ultimately the series, but Perez came through in the ninth inning on Sunday to give the Royals a lead to salvage one game in the series.

Sunday’s bomb marked the 13th of the season for Perez, which isn’t that bad considering he did miss the last month with the thumb injury. From 2015-2021 Perez hit at least 20 home runs in five of those seasons. And when you account for the fact he missed the 2019 season after suffering a serious elbow injury, and the shortened 2020 season where he still hit 11 home runs in 37 games, his consistency still checks out. Last year, he really broke the slate for fantasy baseball.

Perez’s 2021 campaign was on a whole different level. He completed two-thirds of the triple crown tying for the league lead in home runs (48) with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. of the Toronto Blue Jays. Perez also led the league in RBI and touted a .273/.316/.544 slash line. His numbers were truly out of this world for the catcher position.

Perez’s 2022 season hasn’t seen the same success, but he still only needs seven more home runs over the next two months to reach 20 for the year. However, his plate discipline is way down this year. He’s never been a shining example of patience, but his strikeout rate is up to 27.5% on the season, which is the highest of his career. That doesn’t bode well when his walk rate is just 3.6% for his career. On top of the strikeouts his batting average is down to just .209 this season which is by far the worst of his career.

Per Baseball Savant, the hard-hit percentage and average exit velocity still grade out in the top 11% and 15% respectively in the league. But there are some sizable concerns in comparison to previous years.

The xwOBA and xBA are way off from previous seasons and his whiff percentage ranks in the bottom three percent in the league. The power is still evident. Even in the three games in his return, his two hits have been home runs. But not every instance of contact is going to go yard. Truthfully, there isn’t too much in his plate discipline profile on Fangraphs that signals he’s doing anything differently. His O-Swing% is actually down 4.7 percentage points from a year ago. His Z-Swing% is down 2.4 points and the overall swing percentage is down 3.7 points. Overall he’s making slightly less contact in the zone, but not enough to explain the .207 batting average. If the thumb is fine and there’s nothing else wrong with his mechanics, I think he’s in line for some positive regression over the final two months of the season and he could still reach 20 home runs as mentioned earlier.

Currently the Royals sit at 40-62 with virtually no chance to make the playoffs. Perez seems very happy in Kansas City. He’s already won a World Series with the organization; he has plenty of personal accolades as well and he’s set to make $80 million between 2022-2025. His contract isn’t necessarily tradable given the production this year and he hasn’t really popped up in serious MLB trade discussions. The Royals do appear to be sellers as they recently sent Andrew Benintendi to the New York Yankees. Whit Merrifield’s trade value has remained low due to his vaccination status, but he has expressed interest in changing that if it meant being dealt to a contender. Regardless, the Royals have not been too interested in trading him in recent years. But they’re currently sitting in the bottom of the AL Central and should continue to be sellers at the deadline. But it still seems unlikely Perez is going anywhere. He is likely a staple in the Royals organization and could very well finish his career there whether they’re contending or not. If the thumb is healed he can return positive results the next two months. I’m optimistic the power he displayed in the Bronx this weekend will continue but potentially at the expense of the batting average.

 

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