The 2022 MLB Trade Deadline featured plenty of big-name players switching teams, including Juan Soto, Whit Merrifield, Josh Hader, and Frankie Montas. One MLB trade that had plenty of fantasy baseball implications was Noah Syndergaard going from the Los Angeles Angels to the Philadelphia Phillies. Whether you roster Syndergaard on your own fantasy baseball lineups or are interested in acquiring him, it's worth taking a closer look at the starting pitcher in the latest fantasy baseball player spotlight. Could Syndergaard now rise up the August fantasy baseball player rankings and rest-of-season MLB projections with his move to Philly? Be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and MLB injury report to help set your fantasy baseball lineups for the upcoming week. Now let's dive in to Thor's Hammer heading to Philadelphia. 

 


Noah Syndergaard Fantasy Baseball Player Spotlight

Syndergaard made his Phillies debut on Thursday and it came with mixed results. Although he earned the victory in a rain-shortened game, Thor struggled with a Washington Nationals lineup that no longer includes Juan Soto and Josh Bell. In five innings, Syndergaard gave up 11 hits, zero walks, and four earned runs with just two strikeouts. Yes, we’ll take the win for our fantasy baseball matchups, but the season-high 11 hits allowed is a bit worrisome – especially against a subpar offense like Nationals. 

Syndergaard’s 2022 stats now look like this: 6-8 record in 16 starts, 4.02 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, and 66 strikeouts over 85 innings. When looking at some advanced stats for the 29-year-old right-hander, there’s some good and bad in there. He has a 3.86 FIP, 4.25 xERA, 6.99 K/9 rate, 3.0 K/B rate, and a .255 batting average against with a .294 BABIP. 

One thing's for sure. This isn’t the same pitcher who dominated opposing hitters on a regular basis as a Cy Young candidate with the New York Mets. Though fantasy baseball managers and Phillies fans alike are hoping he regains part of that form, it’s just not the reality of Syndergaard in 2022. The injury history is well-documented at this point, but it’s worth reminding everyone that he missed all of the 2020 season and the large majority of last year while recovering from Tommy John surgery.

On that note, let’s get into how different Syndergaard has been as a starting pitcher this season compared to his previous years in New York. First off, the fastball velocity is notably down from where it was before his arm injury and surgery. He was sitting between 97-99 miles per hour on the fastball from 2015 to 2019 while being one of the hardest-throwing starters in baseball. This year? Syndergaard averages 94 mph with his fastball and rarely throws a pitch above 95. In his first start with the Phillies, only six of his 79 pitches touched 94 on the gun – and they all came in the first two innings. 

This decrease in velocity has also resulted in a career-low strikeout rate for Syndergaard. His 18.2% K rate in 2022 is very noticeably lower than when he punched out 24.5% of batters in 2019 or 29.3% back in 2016. In turn, Syndergaard’s 6.99 strikeouts per nine innings this year is also a career-low – compared to 9.2 K/9 in 2019 or 10.7 in 2016. Furthermore, his velo decrease has resulted in some other career-worst numbers. The 35.1% hard-hit rate, 7.4% barrel rate, 12.1% K-BB rate difference, and .255 BAA are all low points of Syndergaard’s career. Check out his 2022 numbers compared to his five previous full seasons (leaving out the injury-affected 2017 and 2021 campaigns). 

SeasonERAFIPK/9K-BB%HardHit%Barrel%BAA
20153.243.259.9622.4%28.0%4.5%.221
20162.602.2910.6823.5%31.8%2.9%.240
20183.032.89.0418.0%26.4%2.0%.247
20194.283.609.2018.4%31.2%4.6%.252
20224.023.866.9912.1%35.1%7.4%.255

Thus it’s pretty clear that Syndergaard simply isn’t the ace starter that he was years ago. Maybe you already knew that just from the on-surface numbers, but it was important to lay it out from an advanced metric perspective. Some pitchers are able to make a complete recovery from Tommy John and return to the same level. That’s not the case for this 29-year-old pitcher who’s entered a new phase of his career. 

So why was Syndergaard a top starting pitcher trade target at the deadline? Well, despite the career-low numbers, the guy was above-average in a couple of key areas while with the Angels. He’s coped with the velocity decrease by commanding his pitches better in the zone and effectively utilizing the curveball. The Athletic’s Eno Sarris recently laid out how Syndergaard’s Location+ stat was the best among available starters at the trade deadline (chart courtesy of The Athletic).


 

Though Syndergaard’s stuff isn’t as deadly as Frankie Montas or Luis Castillo, his command and use of five different pitches make up some of the difference. In fact, his 52.5% of pitches in the zone this season are actually a career-best. Yes, he’s not striking out hitters at the same rate, but staying in and around the strike zone on a consistent basis cannot go overlooked. Admittedly, this might not be ideal for fantasy baseball with low-strikeout outings. 

As for Syndergaard’s rest-of-season fantasy baseball value, we can look at this a couple of different ways. If you’re in a league that counts wins, then his opportunities at obtaining victories should increase by pitching in front of a Phillies offense that will give more run support than the Angels did. That was evident in his first outing with Philadelphia when Syndergaard gave up four runs but still earned the win – albeit in a rain-shortened game. Plus, the Phillies bullpen is much better than the Angels’ and that will ultimately secure more wins.

On the other hand, Syndergaard has a couple of things going against him. His home/road splits before the trade are particularly hard to ignore. He pitched to a 2.96 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in eight home starts while with Los Angeles. Obviously, he no longer calls Angel Stadium home and the Phillies don’t have any road games in Anaheim coming up. Maybe he can recreate some of that home magic in Philly, but that subpar first outing at home on Thursday told a different story. Meanwhile, he’s struggled to a 5.17 ERA and 1.47 WHIP over seven starts on the road this season. 

Then there’s the whole low-strikeout rate that we talked about earlier. Syndergaard has more than five strikeouts in just five of his 16 starts this season. He’s been able to take advantage of some high-strikeout offenses, but usually he’s pitching to contact and hoping the defense helps out behind him. If Syndergaard isn’t punching out enough hitters, then his fantasy baseball value clearly lacks – especially if he’s giving up a few runs and multiple hits per outing. 

 

 

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