Earlier this season, Jorge López was a popular fantasy baseball waiver wire pickup as he emerged as the Baltimore Orioles’ closer. He’s helped out many fantasy baseball lineups and rosters that have pitchers on the MLB injury report. Lopez is now a hot name at the upcoming MLB trade deadline with playoff contenders likely calling the Orioles to make a deal. On the same note, fantasy baseball managers may be looking to acquire or send away Lopez in trades in their own leagues over the next few weeks. The Baltimore pitcher has quickly risen up fantasy baseball rankings this season, but his rest-of-season MLB projections could change depending on which team he plays on in the second half. Be sure to keep an eye on the latest MLB trade rumors and fantasy baseball news. Pay attention to the fantasy baseball closer grid as well if there are any MLB bullpen changes involving Lopez. Let’s take a closer look at Lopez’s fantasy baseball sleeper season in the latest Fantasy Baseball Player Spotlight. 

 

 

Jorge López Fantasy Baseball Player Spotlight

 

 

If you aren’t aware of how good Lopez has been this year, let’s ogle at his top-tier stats for a minute. Before the calendar turned to July, the Baltimore closer boasted a 0.73 ERA and 0.81 WHIP with 13 saves in 15 opportunities. After a couple of shaky outings against the Minnesota Twins this past weekend, Lopez now has a 1.69 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. Those are still elite numbers for a closer even after his last two poor showings. He’s struck out 40 batters over 37.1 innings pitched with a career-high 26.7% strikeout rate. Lopez has allowed just a .165 batting average against and he hadn't given up a home run at all this season before the Twins took him deep on Friday, July 1. He’s even earned three wins to go along with those 13 saves. 

Lopez has quite literally been one of the best relief pitchers in both real life and fantasy this season and he’s been a gem for anyone who added him off the waiver wire. If you drafted Lopez originally, well, hats off to you. 

The rest of us didn’t see this type of elite closer season coming from a guy that had never done it before. That’s because Lopez is a failed MLB starter who had an ERA above 6.00 in each of the last three seasons before 2022. He’s also bounced around three different teams since breaking into the big leagues in 2015. Only the Orioles figured to give him consistent ninth-inning opportunities when it was clear his time as a starter was ending. 

Check out Lopez’s year-by-year stat lines from the past four years just to see how bad he was as a starting pitcher.

SeasonTeamG (GS)ERAFIPWHIPBAA
2018MIL/KC17 (7)5.035.091.47.270
2019KC39 (18)6.336.001.47.282
2020KC/BAL10 (6)6.695.661.49.289
2021BAL33 (25)6.075.441.63.290

Those of us that play MLB DFS will remember happily stacking opposing lineups against Lopez going back to his time with Kansas City. However, this is a completely different pitcher we’re talking about now that he’s a reliever. We’ve seen plenty of failed starting pitchers make the successful transition over into the relief ranks, and Lopez is the latest to find a career resurgence now that he just needs to be effective for one inning (or so) per outing. 

What Do the Advanced Stats Say?

Good question. Is Lopez’s 2022 success just some smoke-and-mirrors act? Or is the Baltimore closer actually as dominant as the current stud-level ERA and WHIP suggest? Let’s take a look. 

The 29-year-old right-hander is sporting a 2.45 xERA, 2.67 FIP, and 3.15 xFIP with a 76.7% left-on-base rate and a .189 BABIP. Those numbers might suggest some more negative regression on the 1.69 ERA and a poor outing or two are coming for Lopez. In fact, we just saw him struggle against the Twins in back-to-back outings. 

Still, the expected ERA and FIP aren’t that high and would still be impressive for a fantasy reliever – regression or not. Plus, closers and relief pitchers can survive through a high LOB% and a low BABIP to still produce shutdown numbers. For comparison’s sake, Cleveland Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase has a 73.2% LOB rate and .247 BABIP while the New York Yankees’ Clay Holmes has a 90% LOB rate and .239 BABIP. 

We also have other evidence that tells us Lopez can continue limiting runs and baserunners. Whether it’s as the Orioles’ closer or as a setup man for another squad after the trade deadline is another story – but we’ll get there in a minute.

Check out Lopez’s MLB percentile ranks on his Baseball Savant Statcast profile. All that red in the high-90s percentiles is what we love to see. 

When looking at that chart further, let’s note some numbers. Lopez has a 26.4% hard-hit rate, .193 expected BA against, .261 expected wOBA against, 86.2 mph average exit velocity, 3.3% barrel rate, and a 97.8 mph average fastball velocity. All those numbers are in the 1-9% of all MLB pitchers. 

That 97.8 mph “fastball” is actually a sinker, but the speed and effectiveness of the pitch are no joke. Lopez throws his sinker 51.4% of the time and has held opposing hitters to a .153 BA and .254 expected wOBA with it. The pitch has plenty of movement and looks nearly impossible to hit with its horizontal run. It’s also jumped two full miles per hour in average velocity from last season now that Lopez is a reliever and can put more effort and fire behind each pitch. 

Along with the sinker heater, Lopez also mixes in a curveball, changeup, and slider. This diverse pitch arsenal keeps opposing hitters guessing at the plate and prevents hard contact more often than not. Case in point: that 26.4% hard-hit rate is among the league’s lowest as batters struggle to square him up no matter what he's throwing.

In addition, Lopez is continually keeping the ball on the ground and limiting flyballs – which hasn’t put him at risk of allowing homers as often. His 64% groundball rate is at a career-high and is second among all qualified MLB relievers this season (behind only Clay Holmes). In turn, his 13.5% line drive rate is at a career-low and the 22.5% flyball rate ranks fifth among qualified MLB relievers. 

Being a groundball pitcher certainly helps Lopez be more successful in his transition to the bullpen. Since he's keeping balls on the ground and not giving up many fly balls or hard-hit line drives, there's considerably less risk of blowing leads or giving up a homer or two in the ninth inning. 

Rest of Season Expectations

Now we get to the big question of what to expect from Lopez for the rest of the 2022 campaign. Before we go any further into projections, let’s get one thing clear. There’s a very good chance the Orioles trade away Lopez at some point before the MLB trade deadline. We all know Baltimore isn’t contending this year or next season and there are plenty of playoff-caliber squads out there that need back-end bullpen help. O’s general manager Mike Elias has not been shy to deal away trade assets in recent seasons and Lopez could be the next guy shipped off this July. 

With that in mind, you have to wonder what Lopez’s role will be in the second half of the season if he’s on a new team. There’s a chance he lands on a team with an entrenched closer and is brought in to be a setup man or high-leverage situational pitcher. All of a sudden, save opportunities are virtually gone for Lopez and he becomes that much less valuable for fantasy baseball. The low ERA and WHIP will be nice, but Lopez might be limited to holds – which may still be good for those in holds leagues. Still, the decrease in save opportunities is something to think about.

If Lopez doesn’t get traded, then he’s still on a subpar Baltimore team that’ll surely be among the league’s worst in the second half. Baltimore has actually been more competitive in 2022 than in years past, but it’s hard to imagine how many more wins will be on the calendar for the bottom-feeders of the AL East – especially if the team trades away a couple of key players at the deadline.

Despite all of this, those who roster Lopez in fantasy baseball should feel confident that his own talents and numbers won’t regress much. As outlined earlier, he could be in line for a couple of blown saves or poor outings as the advanced stats suggest – but it definitely won't be a normal occurrence. It’s ultimately a matter of what his role will be moving forward on a new team – or if he remains Baltimore’s closer. Either way, expect Lopez to be a nice source of fantasy baseball value with his low ERA, WHIP, and additional saves/holds. 

 


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