A former first round pick back in the 2019 MLB Draft, Bryson Stott’s stat line here in 2022 isn’t going to turn many heads. He’s not a fantasy baseball game changer, and a .193 batting average with a .263 wOBA, seven home runs, 31 RBI and three stolen bases across 68 games isn’t going to win anyone any fantasy baseball leagues. However, this is first taste of major league action, and he’s a solid defensive option with slightly above average pop. Over his last 35 plate appearances, he’s hitting .281 with a .688 slugging percentage, alongside three home runs, seven runs scored and nine RBI. He’s currently rostered in just six percent of Yahoo fantasy baseball leagues, and just three percent of ESPN fantasy baseball leagues. Is his recent production something to watch the rest of the way, making him a quality fantasy baseball waiver wire pickup? Or, does he not warrant one of the all important roster spots on your team? Let’s examine Stott’s performance this year, and of late, to see what kind of impact, if any, he can make in the second half of the Major League Baseball season.

 


A tough start to the year has really decimated Stott’s numbers this year. Through May, he was hitting just .123 with a .188 BABIP and abnormal 32.1 percent strikeout rate. How abnormal is that mark? His highest mark at any stop in the minors was a 25 percent strikeout rate in nine games at Triple-A this year. Prior to that, it was 23.2 percent in 22 games at A+ ball in 2021. Strikeouts are not a sizable part of his game, as for the most part, he’s kept the strikeout rate down, posted a solid walk rate, and showcased good plate discipline. However, as the weather has gotten warmer, Stott has slowly warmed up. Look at the breakdown of recent months compared to his numbers through May:

 

AVG

BB%

K%

O-Swing%

Contact%

SwStr%

Through May

.123

6.4%

32.1%

32.1%

79.7%

9.6%

June

.238

10.1%

14.6%

22.7%

87.1%

5.1%

July

.215

9.7%

8.3%

25.2%

91.7%

3.6%

Courtesy of FanGraphs

The batting average is still far from desirable, but if your league values OBP, you can stomach the batting average thanks to a quality walk rate. As Stott has settled in, and in theory, the game has slowed down for him, his plate discipline has vastly improved, and he’s making more contact, which is in line with his time in the minors. Thanks to the improved contact and diminished strikeout rate, it’s not much of a surprise that many of Stott’s expected statistics are trending in the positive direction.


For what it is worth, Stott has a .274 xBA in the month of July. Do with that what you will.

If you aren’t a fan of expected statistics, or don’t buy into them, that’s fine. We can look at more “tangible” data, if you view it that way. When you look at Stott’s rolling breakdown of his exit velocity and hard hit rates, there’s an interesting inference to be made. Of late, Stott has been comfortably above the MLB average in terms of average exit velocity and hard hit rate, which is something that cannot be said for the early part of his 2022 season.


What if I told you that in the month of July, Stott was inside the top 40 for average exit velocity and inside the top 60 for hard hit rate? Just saying.

In deeper formats, there’s plenty of reason to believe in Stott the rest of the way. As he continues to settle in, the production will come. He’s not going to be a menace on the base paths, but he should provide a couple of more stolen bases the rest of the way, but I do expect to see an uptick in his power production the rest of the way. In shallower leagues, you likely won’t be needing Stott’s services, but those in deeper formats, particularly those that value OBP, should be heavily interested in adding Stott to your squad. Bryce Harper is returning to the lineup soon, and if Stott can stay hitting in the five or six hole more often than the eight spot, not only will he get more at-bats, but more advantageous ones with guys on base. This is a low-risk, medium-reward type addition for your fantasy team in deeper formats.

Statistical Credits:

fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com

 


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