The New York Yankees are fortunate to have Aaron Judge, and every team would love to have their own Aaron Judge. Well, fortunately, it appears that Tampa Bay has their own in Isaac Paredes. I say this slightly in jest, but who thought that the early returns of the Austin Meadows for Isaac Paredes and a pick would be so fruitful so quick for the Rays. Prior to mid-May, no one cared about Paredes for fantasy baseball purposes, but after a brief moment of being in the news, Paredes cooled off, but decided he wanted his name back out there. In a three game stretch last week, Paredes hit .583 with five home runs, eight RBI and five runs scored, not to mention an insane .988 wOBA and 585 wRC+. Coming into this season, Paredes had two home runs in 172 at-bats, and this year, he has 10 round trippers in just 101 at-bats. Of course, the obvious question here is asking whether or not this is for real, or is Paredes a prime sell-high candidate. Is Paredes a trade target in fantasy baseball, or is he someone you should be looking to trade away from your fantasy baseball team? Let’s discuss.

 

Let me start by saying that Paredes has always been a guy that has had a decent hit tool and to put it simply, he does a great job of putting the bat on the ball. He hardly strikes out, posting a 16.7 percent career mark in the majors, and at the Double-A and Triple-A levels, those marks were at 13.6 percent and 18.9 percent respectively. The hit tool is there, and if he had enough at -bats to qualify, take a look at where he would rank in some of the more important plate discipline metrics:

 ParedesRankComparable Player
Z-Contact%92.0%21stAndrew Vaughn (92.0%)
Contact%85.4%18thJake Cronenworth (85.6%)
SwStr%6.2%16thWill Smith (6.2%)

Courtesy of FanGraphs

Again, I don’t believe anyone is questioning the hit tool and the ability to make contact, and that’s the correct logic here. However, it’s completely understandable to question the legitimacy of the power production, because to say this is an outlier might be an understatement. I mean, two home runs in 57 games between 2020 and 2021 to 10 home runs in 35 games in 2022? I know the Rays work magic with everyone it seems, but what in the hell is going on here? His average exit velocity is no better than league average but his hard hit rate has been on an upward trajectory since the beginning of the season.

Based on the above, it should come as no surprise that Paredes’ 8.1 percent barrel rate is far and away a career best, and his seven barrels this year are six more than he had the past two years combined. When you combine that with the fact that he’s pulling the ball more than ever before, you can see how things start to add up a bit. Most players have their most power or best power output when pulling the baseball, and Paredes is no different. I mean, look at his chart below, and look at the gaggle of home runs over the left field wall, and then you can see his hits to right field are, well, less impressive.

For another visual representation, based on Paredes’ 10-game rolling average, you can see direct correlations overall between his pull rate, fly ball rate, and home run fly ball ratio. That ratio is due to regress a bit, as his current 23.8 percent mark is unsustainable, but you have to put the ball in the air to leave the yard, and for Paredes to circle the bases, it needs to be in the air and pulled to left field. Of qualified hitters, his HR/FB rate would be the seventh-highest mark in baseball, and in the same ballpark as Mike Trout (25.0%), Kyle Schwarber (24.4%), and Pete Alonso (22.9%).

He’s outperforming a lot of his expected statistics, including in the home run department, as Baseball Savant shows an 8.7 xHR mark. While arguably my biggest concern is that his luck on fly balls will diminish, the other concern here involves his team, the Rays. Will they continue to let him play everyday? What if the power subsides and he hits a cold stretch? Do they stick with him in the lineup, or do they do the Tampa Bay shuffle and he enters this carousel of players that shuffle in and out of the lineup. Will the Rays ray? I think that is a legitimate question here. Fortunately, Paredes can play multiple positions in the infield, which showcases his versatility and increases his opportunity for playing time.

 

So, if we wrap it back to the original question, is Paredes a fluke or is this for real? Well, while many may not like this answer, it’s a bit of both. The hit tool is fine and he will put the bat on the ball. However, while I love to be an optimist, I think it’s foolish to expect this sort of power production for a guy that hit just 56 home runs in nearly 1,900 at-bats in his minor league career. Paredes is doing a great job of maximizing his power profile, but regression comes for everyone, and Paredes is no different. If you roster him, I am fine with holding him for the time being, but you shouldn’t be attached to Paredes, and if someone offers something of value for him, particularly in a category where you need help, I wouldn’t hesitate moving him.

Call me a pessimist for expecting regression to hit Paredes, but to me, it just doesn’t seem sustainable. In terms of power production, this is the best version of Paredes, but I just don’t see his batted ball profile parlaying into a similar rate as the likes of Trout, Schwarber, and Alonso over the course of a full season.

 

Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
Baseballsavant.mlb.com
Milb.com 

 


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