The 2022 fantasy baseball season is in full swing and everyone is looking to improve their rosters. One way to do so is scouring your fantasy baseball league's free agent pool for a fantasy baseball breakout candidate. A lot of times that can be found in the bullpen. Relief pitchers and closers and fantasy baseball will see their value fluctuate across different leagues. St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Ryan Helsley started way down the fantasy baseball rankings during draft season, but he’s now one of the hottest fantasy baseball waiver wire targets. For today’s Player Spotlight article, let’s take a closer look at Helsley and what to expect for the rest of the 2022 fantasy baseball season.

 

 

Helsley’s Dominant Start

 

 

In eight appearances and 10 total innings out of the St. Louis bullpen this year, Helsley has yet to allow a run and he’s given up just one hit and no walks. He’s also struck 20 of the 31 total batters faced for an elite 64.5% K-rate. The 0.18 xERA, -0.92 FIP, and -0.39 xFIP suggest he’s been just as good as the 0.00 ERA indicates. Yep, you read that correctly – a negative FIP and xFIP.  It’s obviously a small sample size, but it’s impossible to ignore how dominant Helsley has been when in games this year. 

The 27-year-old has been in the league since 2019 but has never made enough of an impact to be relevant in fantasy baseball until this year. Helsley had a 4.56 ERA and 1.42 WHIP over 47.1 relief innings last season for the Cardinals, and he pitched to a 5.25 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 2020. 

Safe to say that expectations were not high for Helsley coming into the 2022 fantasy baseball season. He was barely taken in fantasy baseball drafts and has been sitting on the waiver wire for weeks. Still, he’s giving everyone (including the St. Louis coaches) a reason to rethink his value. Helsley is now rostered in 45% of Yahoo! leagues and is among the most added players on ESPN.

He's definitely worth picking up off waivers for your own fantasy baseball teams – but why is that the case? Let's take a closer look. 

Velocity Increase

Along with the impressive stats this year, Helsley’s velocity has also seen a notable uptick. His average fastball velocity is currently sitting at 99.3 mph, which is up from 97.7 last season. He hit 102 and 103 mph in a recent outing and, courtesy of Pitching Ninja below, those blinding fastballs are nearly unhittable. 

That 103.1 mph fastball is actually the fastest recorded MLB pitch this season. Now that Helsley is consistently hitting 100 on the gun, he's entered the elite tier of flamethrowing relievers that opposing batters likely fear.

The scorching four-seam fastball is the headliner in Helsley's normal three-pitch arsenal that also includes an 88-89 mph cutter/slider and 80 mph curveball. Interestingly, he throws the fastball 52.6% of the time and the cutter/slider at 35.8% – and the curve making up the remaining 11.7% of pitches thrown. That split between fastball and cutter, though, is what makes his 100+ mph heater such a tough one to hit. 

This isn't some hard-throwing pitcher who comes out of the bullpen and relies too much on his fastball – for better or worse. Helsley uses the “slower” cutter/slider just enough so that his four-seamer speeds up opposing hitters to the point where they can't touch it. It's become a true strikeout pitch because he doesn't overuse it. Vice versa, the cutter and curve are both out pitches because hitters have to adjust to pitches at 10 and 20 mph slower than the fastball – and with some break to them, no less.

Check out below examples of his cutter/slider and curveball. Put yourself in a hitter's shoes when he's gearing up to hit a 100 mph heater but then have to flip a switch mid-swing to hit something slower with more movement. The videos below are courtesy of FanGraphs' Ben Clemens.

Cutter/Slider:

 

Curveball:

 

How Is Helsley Used?

Helsley began the season as one of the Cardinals’ multiple setup men behind closer Giovanny Gallegos, but his role is quickly changing. Since he's looked so dominant on the mound, he's now used in high-leverage situations as the bullpen's go-to shutdown guy – whether it's in the seventh, eighth, or ninth innings. Manager Oliver Marmol isn't afraid to give Helsley multiple frames in one outing or have him close out a game if he's rolling. 

Check out Helsley's last five appearances:

DateInning EnteredIP# PitchesBatters FacedHBBKDecision
5/67th1.2265004Win
5/18th2.0186004Save
4/279th1.0103001N/A
4/227th1.1154003Hold
4/197th1.1265103N/A

You can see that he's usually out there for more than just one inning and has entered the game in a variety of spots. The two-inning save on May 1st is a great sign that the Cardinals trust him to close a game, even if it means getting six outs. The fact that Helsley has a win, save, and hold all in the last four outings means the St. Louis coaching staff is comfortable with him in those high-leverage spots – and he's gotten the job done.

Though Gallegos is still the closer and will handle most ninth innings moving forward, the seed has been planted for Helsley to take some save opportunities away. At the very least, our guy will be out there in the seventh and eighth innings in close games with a decent chance at a win or hold. The fact that Jordan Hicks is transitioning into the St. Louis starting rotation means Helsley will be used even more as the team's hard-throwing weapon out of the pen.

The holds clearly make Helsley more valuable in leagues that count both saves+holds. He already has three holds on the season compared to one save and one win. If you're in a league that counts wins, though, Helsley has a solid chance at accruing one here and there when he's pitching in tie games late. 

Rest Of Season Expectations

Whether Helsley stays in his high-leverage role or eventually takes over as the Cardinals' closer, he should be added in almost all fantasy baseball leagues. Clearly the holds, saves, and/or wins are a plus for whichever stat your league counts. However, he's valuable without those because of his elite ratios.

Though we can't expect him to maintain a 0.00 ERA or minimal WHIP all year, he's going to keep your ratios low more often not. As outlined above, the scorching fastball and mix of cutter/curveball should continue to keep opposing hitters off-balance all season. It seems like Helsley has found another gear with that heater and it's turned him into one of the more dominant relievers in baseball.

If you haven't already, go grab Ryan Helsley off your fantasy baseball waiver wire. At the very least, he's going to provide top-tier ERA, WHIP, and strikeout totals when he's in the game. Maybe we see a changing-of-the-guard in the St. Louis bullpen in the coming weeks if Gallegos struggles to close games. That would be even better for our guy and those multi-inning outings will be even more valuable. 

Sometimes it's best to jump aboard breakout relievers who have the stuff. Think Devin Williams, Paul Sewald or Emmanuel Clase from last season. If you picked up any of them, your fantasy baseball squad likely benefited. Helsley could be the next elite-level reliever for fantasy rest of season if he keeps this up – and you'll be hoping you climbed aboard in May.

 


 Fantasy Alarm is the home of all things Fantasy Sports. Bringing you the best Fantasy Football, Fantasy Baseball and Fantasy Basketball content all year long. Be sure to also check out the best fantasy promo codes on offer today!

RELATED LINKS