When the calendar turns to September, it’s always worth looking back on fantasy baseball ADP results, especially at the catcher position, and assess who was worth an early price tag and who emerged as an extreme value. The beauty of looking at a player like Cal Raleigh is that he has emerged as a late-season waiver wire acquisition especially after the run he’s been on the last two weeks. Let’s take a look at what makes Raleigh so valuable in fantasy baseball leagues as a potential waiver wire acquisition to close out the 2022 campaign for our fantasy baseball lineups.

 

Since August 30th (very small sample size, I know) Raleigh has eight hits, but five of those has been for home runs. That’s a very unsustainable rate. However, Raleigh is slashing .207/.280/.483(!) on the season with a .327 wOBA and 118 wRC+. Some of those numbers seem rather pedestrian, but the slugging percentage stands out and it’s translated to 23 home runs on the season, which actually leads the league among catchers.

Now it is worth being honest and taking a step back. Raleigh has been on a tear the last couple weeks which has pushed him to the home run lead at his position. But over one-fifth of those dingers have come in the last two weeks. And overall, Raleigh hasn’t really emerged as a must-add player on the fantasy baseball waiver wire. It’s now the middle of September and even as the leader in home runs at the catcher position, he’s still available in about 80% of leagues.

Do I think Raleigh should be added in 12-team leagues? Honestly, I don’t think so. At least not for this early in the scoring period and I’ll elaborate on that shortly. The last two weeks represent the first real “streak” he’s had all season. On top of that, he routinely hits toward the bottom of Seattle’s lineup. There have been only seven occasions in 2022 where he’s hit fifth (or better) in the order and every other game he’s hit in the bottom half, or bottom third. 

The other thing going against Raleigh, at this point in September, is the schedule for the upcoming scoring period. Despite it being late in the calendar year for Major League Baseball, the Mariners only have five games on tap this week with days off occurring Monday and Thursday. That’s not great when you take into considering that the Reds, Marlins, Mets, Astros, and Blue Jays have better matchups in the upcoming period and some of those teams have eight or nine games on tap this week.

A good sign? Raleigh’s home/road splits are night and day and fortunately for him, he has ten straight games on the road coming up starting this Thursday. That is when it may be worth scooping him from the free agent pool. He’s hitting .244 on the road, where he’s hit 16 of his 23 home runs, compared to a .174 batting average at home with just seven dingers. It is difficult to project how he’ll finish the season the next few weeks. He could feasibly collect three or four more home runs. He’s in the top 20% in terms of barrel rate, average exit velocity, max exit velocity, and xSLG. He’s 25 years old so he’s not really a prospect, but he’s also not necessarily a player hitting a late-career breakout at the age of 28 or 29.

If you’re chasing power and want to chase upside at the catcher position, then maybe Raleigh is a good fit for your team over the next three weeks. I would much rather prefer targeting him later in the week since the M’s are off Monday and Thursday. But he does seem like a hitter that thrives on momentum and the two days off could crush his vibe. But even when the road trip ends and Seattle comes back home for a ten-game homestand, the matchups are still reasonable. They’ll host the Rangers, Athletics, and Tigers to close out the season and those teams are all in the bottom 12 in terms of team ERA. The ownership is spiking a bit, but you can afford to be a little patient in shallower leagues until later in the week if you want to make a swap at catcher. If you’re still alive at this point in the season, you’re likely all set at the position. If Raleigh’s power surge has caught your attention then pray that he can stay hot to close out the year.

 

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