Hot Takes: Is Perception Reality?

Perception: Eli Manning Stinks

I hear this all the time – Eli Manning stinks.

Let me be clear.

It’s not true.

Eli Manning has an 88.8 QB Rating.
His career mark is 88.8.

Eli Manning has a 64.8 completion percentage.
That’s the best mark of his career.

Eli Manning is averaging 298 yards a game as a passer.
That’s the second best mark in his 13-year career.

Eli Manning is averaging 7.7 yards per attempt.
That’s better than his 7.1 career mark.

Eli Manning is averaging 1.00 interceptions per game.
His career mark is 1.07.

The talk about Eli Manning stinking is merely about touchdowns. That’s it. With eight scores in six games he’s on a 16-game pace for 21 touchdown passes. In 6-of-7 years he’s thrown at least 26 touchdowns. He will get to that mark if he plays 16 games this season.

Eli Manning doesn’t stink.

Perception: Brees and Cooks Stink on the Road

Brees and Cooks are not as good on the road as they are at home. That is an accurate statement. However, do they stink on the road to the point of being unusable?

Here are Drew Brees numbers the past nine starts on the road (going back to the start of last season). I will also list what those numbers would be over a 16 game season.

Again, those are not great numbers. But…

The only QB who completed 432 passes last season was Philp Rivers (437).

Only eight quarterbacks bettered that completion percentage last year. Of course, one of them was Brees so it was really seven.

Only seven quarterbacks bettered that yardage total. Of course, one of them was Brees so it was really six.

The issue people have is the touchdowns – just like with Eli.

Is this just a sample size issue? After all, we’re only talking nine games here. In his career Drew has made 111 starts on the road. He’s thrown 181 passing scores. That’s 1.63 touchdowns a game. Do that over 16 games and you end up with… 26 passing scores. By the way, his career average yardage mark on the road, per 16 games, is 4,333 yards. So again, let me ask you the following. Is a guy who has averaged 4,333 passing yards and 26 passing scores, per 16 road games, crap on the road? Certainly not.

Cooks has appeared in 15 games on the road in his career. In those 15 games he’s caught 70 passes for 785 yards and four scores. That’s well below the levels we expect from Cooks. However, what happens if we remove the five games from his rookie season. That seems fair doesn’t it? Let’s do what we did above with Brees. Here is a table with the 10 games Cooks has played on the road since the start of last season, and what that 16 game pace would be.

Just like with Brees above, this is really about touchdowns. Not that 80 catches and 958 yards is great, but if that’s a “failure” then only 15 wide receivers weren’t failures in the NFL last season (that is the number of WRs who went 80-958 last year). One of those was of course Cooks.

Talk of his demise is also greatly exaggerated.

Perception: Todd Gurley is a Failure

Drafted in the first round, Gurley has been a letdown. Period. I agree. He has not rewarded those who spent a first round pick on Gurley. Period. However, has he been a failure like so many are saying?

Compare what he did last year to this year. The numbers are on a per game basis.

It’s obvious to see why folks are, rightly, disappointed.

It should be noted that he is carrying the ball more per game. It should also be noted that if he were to score in Week 7 his TD rate would improve to 0.57 and if he scored twice the mark would be 0.71. It’s not as far apart as it seems.

His saving grace, somewhat saving, is the pass catching angle.

Gurley caught 21 passes in 13 games last season.
Gurley has caught 12 passes the last three games.

Gurley caught 188 yards of passes last season.
Gurley has caught 124 yards of passes the last three games.

Understanding that running the football isn’t working right now, the Rams have done the smart thing and have started to give the ball to Gurley in the passing game. That’s a huge development, especially in PPR. Over his last three games 12 catches are obviously four per game. That would be 48 receptions over 16 games. Remember, he caught just 21 passes last season.

In a traditional PPR setup Gurley has 79.9 fantasy points. While disappointing, that’s still 16^th in football for a runner. If you want to find a failure at RB why don’t you talk Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, Eddie Lacy, Doug Martin etc.

We’re also only talking about six of 16 games folks. We’re not even halfway through the season. What if Gurley rips off two 40-yard runs this week and runs for 142 yards and a touchdown. He would shoot into the top-10 at the running back position with an effort like that.

Be careful not to jump ship with Gurley, even if he has been disappointing.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday/Tuesday and Thursday/Friday, 8 PM EDT, Wednesday 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 9 PM EDT on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).