2017 NFL Draft Guide: Don't Reach for Rookies

As time rolls on and fantasy football ventures into a brave new world the expectations for rookie players have changed from year to year. There was a time where you wouldn’t dare take a rookie in the first two rounds. That honor and privilege was reserved for proven veterans and All Pro studs and for good reason. But with 2017 approaching and some rookie players getting a lot of hype it’s time to look at the past at how rookies have fared for fantasy owners.

Quarterbacks

It goes without saying rookie quarterbacks are a huge gamble. Despite the recent surge in talent and depth at the position there have been some successful players to come into the league and make a statement right away. In reference to their ADP’s however, rookie QB’s can be value.

Peyton Manning’s rookie campaign in 1998 was enough to rank him as a Top 12 QB that year, but even he threw 28 interceptions. There’s certainly a learning curve while adjusting to defenses. The Top 6 fantasy rookie Quarterback performances have all come since 2011: Cam Newton (2011), Robert Griffin III (2012), Andrew Luck (2012), Dak Prescott (2016), Jameis Winston (2015), and Russell Wilson (2012). Manning’s rookie year would be next at #7. Of the entire rookie QB seasons mentioned so far only Winston’s failed to qualify as a Top 12 fantasy QB in his respective season.

Newton’s rookie campaign in 2011 was outstanding. Very few people reached on Newton in his rookie year as his ADP was roughly 157. Not bad for a guy who finished as a Top 5 QB.

Below are the ADP’s for the other QB’s as well as where they ranked at the end of the season:

• Robert Griffin III (2012): ADP – 83     QB Rank – 7^th
• Andrew Luck (2012): ADP – 106     QB Rank – 10^th
• Dak Prescott (2016): ADP – 134     QB Rank – 6^th
• Jameis Winston (2015): ADP – 144     QB Rank – 13^th
• Russell Wilson (2012): ADP – 152     QB Rank – 11^th

Rookie QB’s aren’t as reached for as other positional players. Only a handful of rookies have finished as Top 12 QB’s. QB’s typically aren’t “reached” for in fantasy drafts. Only RGIII has ever held an ADP in the Top 100 for a rookie quarterback. QB’s are typically the most consistent performers for fantasy owners so there’s little need to draft a QB early. The smart approach is to sit and wait QB’s in the later rounds and stock up on other positions early on…

Running Backs

With the resurgence in the running back position there is some upside to investing in rookie running backs. With more emphasis on backfield committees and the amount of injuries that occur at the position there is certainly opportunity for rookies to earn carries.

2016 saw Ezekiel Elliott taken in the 1^st round of almost all drafts, standard or PPR. Zeke is what you can call a statistical outlier. As soon as Dallas took him he seemed like a 1^st round fantasy pick considering the offensive line he was given. Zeke is one of the few players to validate the high ADP. He totaled almost 2,000 all-purpose yards with 16 total touchdowns. On the opposite end of the spectrum, Melvin Gordon entered with high expectations and was drafted in the 3^rd or 4^th rounds in 2015. Gordon didn’t find the end zone at all in his rookie campaign and he averaged just 3.5 yards per carry.

While Gordon entered 2015 as the rookie with the highest ADP it was Todd Gurley who finished as the top-ranked rookie RB. Even Gurley’s numbers weren’t that great if you consider how he finished the season. After missing the first couple games due to an injury that carried over from his last year in college, Gurley burst on to the scene. His first game in 2015 was quite disappointing: just 9 rushing yards on 6 carries. Over his next 4 games he would total 566 yards (141.5 per game) with 3 TD’s. Even in his 6^th game he still rushed for 89 yards with a touchdown. In the four previously-mentioned games however, he racked up half of his total 1,106 rushing yards. Over Gurley’s last 7 games he averaged just 63 rushing yards with just 8 total receptions. His performance was saved by the 6 touchdowns he scored in those 7 games.

Gurley’s ADP saw him go in the 5^th-6^th round of most drafts. Which is reasonable for a rookie running back. Gurley finished as a Top 10 RB in his rookie year and he wasn’t the only one. David Johnson (ADP 141 in 2015) burst on to the scene towards the end of the season and also finished inside the Top 10. After those two however, no other running back finished in the Top 24.

The same can be said for 2016. Only two rookies (Ezekiel Elliott and Jordan Howard) finished in the Top 24 in standard and PPR leagues. Rob Kelley finished just outside the Top 30.

Now 2017 features one of those rare running back classes with an abundance of talent in nice situations: Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, Dalvin Cook, Samaje Perine, etc. There will be plenty of temptation to reach for one of the names above based on talent and opportunity. 4 rookies are currently going in the Top 50 of mock drafts. This rookie class could buck the trend of Top 24 RB’s at the end of the year, but even loaded rookie classes in the past have failed to capitalize.

Wide Receivers

The rookie receivers in 2017 aren’t getting the fanfare the running backs class is. The status of Mike Williams rookie year is up in the air due to a back injury. So that leaves Corey Davis, John Ross, Cooper Kupp, and Zay Jones. All have potential, but compared to the running backs there is little intrigue. And that’s pretty disappointing considering the past history of rookie WR’s. Everyone remembers Randy Moss’s rookie year in 1998 where he totaled 1,313 receiving yards and 17 TD’s. He did it all with only 69 catches. Odell Beckham Jr.’s breakout year in 2014 was unreal. In just 12 games he had 91 catches for 1,305 yards and 12 TD’s.  That season Beckham was taken around 156^th overall. Well outside the Top 50 WR’s in most drafts. If there’s a rookie position to target, it may be WR in the mid-to-late rounds.

Since 2011, there have been 12 rookie WR’s finish inside the Top 25 at their position. You’ll quickly see some of the best values come in the mid-to-late rounds:

(Players are listed by rank of individual rookie seasons in comparison to each other.)

So recent trends are certainly opening the door for rookies to crack the Top 25. There have been 12 in the last 6 seasons. Certainly there are busts as well. Kendall Wright, Michael Floyd, Tavon Austin, Kenbrell Thompkins, Nelson Agholor, Dorial Green-Beckham, Corey Coleman, Laquon Treadwell, Will Fuller, and Josh Doctson all disappointed in their rookie campaigns.

Rookie WR’s make for a nice addition late in your draft. You don’t necessarily want to rely on them as a WR1/WR2, but they can have some nice Flex value or serve as depth to start out. If they hit it big then congrats, you struck gold and can pat yourself on the back.

Tight Ends

Tight End might be the worst position historically for rookie tight ends. Everyone remembers Rob Gronkowski’s breakout 2011 campaign, but they don’t recall his rookie season in 2010 (which ranks as the best rookie season for a Tight End in history). Even then he only caught 42 passes for 546 yards. He did catch 10 touchdowns however. Since 2011 only 1 rookie Tight End has finished as a Top 12 fantasy TE and that was Hunter Henry in 2016 and he finished as the 11^th-ranked TE. Henry wasn’t even drafted as a Top 24 TE. To be fair Aaron Hernandez and Gronk finished as Top 12 fantasy Tight Ends during their rookie season in 2010, but it’s not a popular trend. Tight End is also one of the least consistent positions in fantasy, as these guys don’t average as many targets unless you’re one of the bigger names. This is a position where it makes no sense to reach for a rookie or even draft one. Coincidentally it’s a position where you could possibly find plenty of streaming options on waivers.

Sticking With Tradition

Last year’s piece, 2016 Never Reach on a Rookie saw Ray Flowers go through the prior 6 seasons and break down the players that “hit” and those who “missed.” Using his standards the next section will break down the rookies from 2016.

Players were considered hits if they met the following criteria:

Quarterback: 3,000 passing yards and 20 passing TD’s

Running Back: 750 rushing yards, 6 rushing TD’s

Wide Receiver: 750 receiving yards, 6 receiving TD’s, 50 receptions

Tight End: 500 yards, 4 receiving  TD’s, 50 receptions

2016 NFL Rookies

QB: Dak Prescott, Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Paxton Lynch

RB: Ezekiel Elliott, Derrick Henry, Devontae Booker, Paul Perkins, DeAndre Washington, C.J. Prosise, Kenneth Dixon, Jordan Howard, Wendell Smallwood, Kenyan Drake, Robert Kelley

WR: Tyreek Hill, Sterling Shepard, Corey Coleman, Michael Thomas, Laquon Treadwell, Geronimo Allison, Malcolm Mitchell, Will Fuller, Josh Doctson, Tyler Boyd, Tajae Sharpe

TE: Austin Hooper, Hunter Henry, Tyler Higbee, Jerell Adams

Total Numbers of players = 30

Number of hits = 6

QB hits: 1/4  Dak Prescott was the only one to qualify as a hit. Wentz was close, but fell 4 passing TD’s short despite having 2 additional rushing TD’s

RB hits: 3/11 This was a very lenient deduction considering last year’s requirements had 40 catches for rookie RB’s. Nobody had that many catches as a rookie RB last year. So Elliott and Howard qualified as hits because of their rushing totals and TD’s. Kelley was even given credit as a hit despite falling 46 yards short of the requirement.

WR hits: 2/11 This was another lenient section as technically only Michael Thomas qualified as a hit. Tyreek Hill was also given credit considering his rushing and receiving numbers as well as his numbers as a kick/punt returner.

TE hits: 0/4 Hunter Henry came close. He had 10 TD’s, but was 22 yards and 14 receptions short.

In total that’s just 6 players out of 30 that qualify as hits and not all of them even met the criteria. This is about in line with the 1-in-5 rookies that hit as deduced in last year’s piece. There will be rookies that surprise people this year. But there’s a lot of risk surrounding those rookie RB’s that are getting drafted in the early rounds in mock drafts. Play it safe and find rookies with value in the mid-to-late rounds. Value can always be found later. You won’t win your league in the first 5 rounds of your draft, but you can certainly lose it.