Mock Draft Army: ADP Trend Report for PPR Leagues

The primary goal of the Mock Draft Army is to provide you with a quality ADP chart to help guide you through your fantasy football drafts. It is also here to help you understand how to be a better drafter based on the information you’ve been inundated with from the moment OTAs started back in May. The NFL coverage is insane these days and it’s always important to know what job battles are being won and lost and how those outcomes should affect the way you draft your team.

In an effort to help steer you in the right direction, I’ve put together an ADP Trend Report to exhibit the fluctuations we’ve seen over the past month. Besides job battles being won and lost, we’ve also had an array of injuries which have massively affected teams’ depth charts. All of those changes, for the most part, seem to be reflected in this trend report. For example, If you look below, you’ll see that Kelvin Benjamin’s ADP has taken a 55.6-percent hit over the last three weeks because once he went down with the season-ending injury, people stopped drafting him in the mocks. Now his replacement, Devin Funchess, has only seen a slight increase in his ADP because, while he may be considered a primary replacement for Benjamin, he is still an unproven rookie and therefore, the always sensible Mock Draft Army is taking him a little earlier than before, but they’re not going crazy here.

We’ll likely see something very similar next week when we start to witness the fallout from Jordy Nelson’s injury. The rise of Davante Adam could be quick, but we could also see a potential drop for Aaron Rodgers. For now though, I will simply highlight some of the more notable risers and fallers according to the Mock Draft Army’s collective opinions.

**Side Note: This trend report is for PPR leagues only right now. Due to time constraints and other commitments, I will have to add the Non-PPR Trend Report, no later than by Tuesday morning.

Risers

Alfred Blue, RB HOU (+63.4%) – Obviously the injury to Arian Foster has opened things up for Blue who is now considered the featured back in Houston. His strong performance in the first preseason game helped solidify that and he has now vaulted from an undrafted player in 12-team leagues to a fourth or fifth round choice. His ADP doesn’t yet reflect that jump, but you can understand it by looking at such a huge increase in such a short period of time.

Markus Wheaton, WR PIT (+42.3%) – This is what happens when Martavis Bryant has surgery to clean out his elbow and the beat writers and bandwagon drivers start hyping a guy. Wheaton’s movement is big here though you want to be careful you don’t overdraft him. Be patient.

LeGarrette Blount, RB NE (+26.0%) – The running back community is pretty thin this year and the belief that with a four-game suspension for Tom Brady, Blount will be leaned on even more heavily here to start the season. Just keep in mind that Blount is also suspended for treating his glaucoma in a non-friendly U.S. State, so he will miss that first game.

Doug Martin, RB TB (+24.8%) – Head coach Lovie Smith finally announced that the Muscle hamster is his lead back and therefore has seen his ADP steadily climb. The jump isn’t outlandish, given the fact that he still has both Charles Sims and Bobby Rainey breathing down his neck, but it’s still a significant increase.

Brandon Coleman, WR NO (+20.6%) – From undrafted wide receiver to late round flier as the reports coming out of Saints camp are all glowing. He’s certainly not someone to reach for, but if you want to take a chance on a receiver with upside, Coleman is a guy to watch.

Fallers

**No need to highlight the drops in ADP due to injury. Players like Arian Foster and Kevin White are fairly obvious. If they’re not, then you need to pay more attention to the day-to-day news.

Brandin Cooks, WR NO (-37.1%) – His drop actually has nothing to do with the emergence of Coleman, but rather the sensibilities of those who draft with the Army. Everyone was crazy high on him coming into camp and that was certainly reflected in where he was being taken. He’s certainly dropped down to a much more reasonable pick, but he could take a little spike again over this last week. When you lose a names like Jordy Nelson and Kelvin Benjamin, guys like Cooks start to get overdrafted again.

Rob Gronkowski, TE NE (-28.1%) – Sometimes you have to look beyond just the trend. The drop for Gronk is significant based on the percentage, but if you look closely, it only amounts to a few picks. I mention him here because I think it needs to be seen that in a series of draft rooms littered with some of the biggest names in the industry, the idea of drafting a tight end too high is starting to fade with a lot of people. Some folks won’t ever learn and will still take him with a high pick, but the trend here shows that late first round is much more acceptable than early first round.  

Michael Floyd, WR ARI (-19.2%) – A few years of constant disappointment and the John Brown bandwagon have pushed Floyd back to where he has probably belonged all along. Maybe even a little too high still, if you ask me. Until he starts to show a little something more on the field, do not get suckered into the name or the two-year old hype.

Tevin Coleman, RB ATL (- 13.4%) – Similarly to Cooks, Coleman started getting drafted way to high early on in the mock season and we are now witnessing more sensible heads prevailing. Coleman is considered behind Devonta Freeman on the depth chart and for that matter, both are also dealing with hamstring issues. He’s still someone to target in my opinion, but don’t reach too high. Let him come to you.

***As always, for a copy of this ADP Trend Report on an Excel spreadsheet, please contact me at howard@fantasyalarm.com or rotobuzzguy@gmail.com. I’ll be more than happy to send it along.

ADP Trend Report -- PPR