MLB Two Start Pitchers: Week 4

This week presents a veritable plethora of middle-tier options to choose from in setting your head-to-head lineups, or for that matter, to swap into any of your fantasy pitching staffs, whether they be standard roto or some specialized format your league has adopted. With the expansion of the middle group comes a depletion to the bottom-level collection of SP’s for you to avoid in Week Four.

Please realize that these articles feature most recent rotation information available when the article is written, but that circumstances do change due to weather conditions, injuries and general craziness with managers. If a pitcher listed here as having two starts ends up with one (or perhaps none) in the upcoming week, apologies but this article is meant to provide analysis, it is up to the manager to set the lineups or rotations.

Without further ado, here are this week’s two-start pitchers:

This group of eight starting pitchers is the best of those heading out to the hill to take the ball in the first inning this week. These are the SP’s you want to insert into your lineup to open the week and stick with through thick and thin, unless you have to react to a dreaded injury situation. It is nice to have Castillo here early this season, after he disappointed so many owners in 2018 with his less than stellar production. Glasnow may have been a bit underappreciated during the draft process, but has been yielding great results so far for those with vision back in March.

Max Fried has been simply lights out for the Braves to open the 2019 campaign, although he did allow five hits in Colorado in his most recent trip to toe the rubber. Prior to that outing, he had thrown one-hit ball over 7.2 innings (one start, two relief appearances). He is not in any danger of being replaced in the rotation given his performance to date, although his peripheral stats (.162 BABIP, 94.4 % strand rate and 2.54 FIP) all hint at some negative regression in store, to be certain. He is still the best option to lead off the middle-tier this scoring period, although he does have a couple of tougher matchups on deck in Week Four.

Collin McHugh is working on a pair of consecutive quality starts (QS) and has effectively held opponents to just five earned runs through his three starts to date, posting an extremely attractive pair of ratio stats for his owners to admire: 2.65 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. The 22:5 K/BB ratio is nothing to sneeze at, either. He is on the road for both his starts this coming week, but the first is at pitcher-friendly Oakland and then he takes on the in-state rival Rangers to wrap up Week Four.

It is a rare week in fantasy when both Chris Sale and Clayton Kershaw are in the middle tier of two-start choices, and not even sitting atop this group, to boot. The situation in Boston is strange, with management deciding to limit both Sale’s velocity and pitch count after his shortened spring training preparation, but expect him to toss off those restrictions at some point (May, maybe?) and return to the upper tier of SP options on a regular basis. It is incumbent to make certain that Kershaw is fully back to peak form before he rejoins the top-tier, but as with Sale, expect his promotion to occur anon, provided he is back to form.

Joey Lucchesi has a pair of home games for his two-start week coming up, and since his lone poor outing was on the road in San Francisco, that portends good things for the young southpaw. He has been striking out better than a batter per inning this season, accumulating a 10.67 K/9 over his 14.1 innings pitched (IP) this season. His ERA and WHIP took a significant hit after his short stint against the Giants, but with him pitching at Petco again, look for him to provide pitching value in Week Four if you are lucky enough to be able to employ his services in your fantasy lineup.

Matt Shoemaker is having a nice run to open the year, and there is certainly no reason not to use him while he is pitching well. He sports an unblemished 3-0 record with a stellar 0.92 ERA and 0.71 WHIP presently, and is yielding tremendous results for his new employers in Toronto. Realize that he did give up two dingers to the Red Sox in his most recent outing, and his peripherals, as with Fried above, give some cause for concern: .159 BABIP, 90.3 % strand rate and 3.51 FIP all indicate that negative regression is on the horizon.

Matthew Boyd developed into the best starter in Detroit in 2018, and has come out of the gate strong in 2019, showing off with a 2.60 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, together with a superb 29:6 K/BB ratio. He pitches twice at Comerica Park in Week Four, which bodes for continued success on the bump, as neither of the opponents arriving in Detroit are overwhelmingly dangerous offenses (Pittsburgh followed by the White Sox).

Aaron Sanchez has only yielded three earned runs over his three starts, comprising 16.0 innings, and is sporting a superior 1.69 ERA as a result. His WHIP is inflated, although, due to his lack of control, having allowed nine free passes in those three appearances, and sits at 1.38 on the season. Both his Week Four starts are on the road, and the Blue Jays have struggled when playing away from home so far, although it is an admittedly small sample size to examine. His strikeout rate is up from his career norms this season, though, and thus he leads off the middle section of the middle-tier.

Tyler Mahle had a short seven-game stretch in 2018 when he was pitching like an ace, but that was not something he was consistently able to provide, before getting sent down to the minors and finally being shut down with a shoulder issue. He has come out of the chute smoking in 2019, albeit against a pair of beatable opponents in the form of Pittsburgh and Miami. He does get to pitch on the road, away from hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark in Cincy, this scoring period, with the second start in San Diego, so there is a possibility his hot-streak continues for the time being.

Dakota Hudson returned to the rotation against the visiting Dodgers after recording a save in his prior appearance in relief, and managed to avoid serving up any home runs at home (he yielded three round-trippers in his first start of the year against the host Brewers). He does offer strikeout potential, with 10 Ks over 9.2 innings this season. He splits his time between the road and home in Week Four, heading to Milwaukee to open the scoring period, then gets the Mets at home on Sunday if all goes as planned.

Dereck Rodríguez is on the road for his two starts this week, but has not demonstrated any great preference in his short MLB career to pitch at AT&T Park, so that does not weigh against him in Week Four. Having to go against Stephen Strasburg and Jameson Taillon are not ideal matchups, however, so that should temper expectations, along with his team’s underwhelming offense to date. He is demonstrating great control, though, with just one walk through 17.1 IP.

Mike Minor has been the best starting pitcher for an underwhelming Texas rotation in 2019, racking up a respectable 15:6 K/BB ratio and 3.86 ERA and 1.13 WHIP over his 18.2 IP this year. He has a couple of home contests on tap for the coming week, with the first matchup against the Angels being the best of the pair, as the Astros are coming for a visit to wrap up his week next Sunday.

Kenta Maeda was roughed up by the host Cardinals in his last appearance on the mound as the SP for the Dodgers, giving up five earned runs over 5.1 IP, allowing seven hits but only one walk. Prior to that outing, however, he had been pitching like a decent mid-rotation fantasy option, with a 3.09 ERA and 1.29 WHIP. He has Cincy at home to open the week, and that is where he is most attractive as a streaming option.

Domingo Germán is undefeated on the season, with a 2-0 record through two starts, and will look to build on that success with a pair of home starts in Week Four. He might experience some bumps in the road, however, if he continues to struggle with his control, having put up seven walks over just 11 IP. Certainly, his ratio stats will take a climb soon from the excellent 1.64 ERA and 0.91 WHIP he currently flaunts. Still, two home starts on tap and his team due to get healthier daily, make him a potentially useful SP this scoring period.

Trevor Richards , just like the SP profiled immediately above, also has two home starts in Week Four. Even with a favorable home park, though, he does pitch for the woeful Marlins, so expectations, even if he continues to post superb ratio stats (2.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through 18.0 IP over three starts), should be tempered just a bit. The K-rate is good, but do not expect much in the way of victories, if your league still counts wins as a pitching stat.

Mike Leake ’s team has been a powerhouse to begin the season, pounding the ball over the wall and racking up 13 victories heading into Saturday evening’s action, so any SP on the Mariners is worth considering in a two-start week. Leake is just a mediocre starting pitching option most of the time, as his 4.03 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over his career attest. He has been having unusual success at missing bats to open 2019, though, with 17 K’s over his 17.1 IP, and just four free passes issued so far. Facing Cleveland’s struggling offense at home and then taking on the Angels on the road are cause to consider hoping for continued production through the end of Week Four.

Leake’s rotation-mate, Yusei Kikuchi , has not exactly lived up to his Japan All-Star status expectations to date, posting a pedestrian ERA of 4.15, although the 1.06 WHIP is tasty for fantasy purposes. He has contributed two quality starts out of his four starts to date, although his K-rate is also mediocre by major league standards, sitting at just 6.23 K/9 through 21.2 IP. As with Leake, he has the Indians at home for his first start, and then heads to Anaheim to face the Angels, so neither matchup is overly terrifying.

Reynaldo López wraps up the middle tier, and he is coming off a stretch(?) of two consecutive quality starts, a pair of no-decisions against the Tigers and Mariners. He has two road matchups in store for him, heading to the Windy City to take on the White Sox and then off to the Big Apple to visit the Yankees. Getting the Yankees while they wear out the Injured List is likely good timing for the Royal righty, as he cannot expect much from his team’s offense in support of his pitching efforts this season if early returns are any indication of 2019’s prospects in Kansas City. He is better than a bottom-tier option, but just so.

As noted in the opening to this article, this tier is less populated than it has been in the opening weeks, due primarily to the bulk of two-start options in Week Four being potentially useful fantasy assets, pitching related that is. Expect the stays of Darvish, Pivetta and probably Woodruff to be short-term, but for the nonce, they are unusable in your fantasy rotations. The rest of these SP’s will likely remain bottom-tier denizens for a good part, if not all of this season. Do your counting and ratio stats a favor and avoid this entire dozen of SP’s when assembling your pitching staff for the current scoring period.

Feel free also to send any starting pitching or other fantasy baseball questions to ia@fantasyalarm.com for a private response to your specific issue. The more detail you can provide about your team and league, including settings (H2H vs roto, points or categories, weekly or daily moves, roster size, league size, etc.) the better the response will be suited to your individual situation. As ever, good luck and Godspeed in all your fantasy endeavors.