MLB Two Start Pitchers: Week 14

What a difference a week makes. Instead of a wealth of starters to choose from who will be heading to the mound, it is time to select cautiously among some not superior options heading into Week Fourteen. There are merely six no-doubt SPs in the top tier, and while the middle tier provides a baker’s dozen of arms, not all of those are clearly worthy of your trust for both their starts.

Please realize that these articles feature most recent rotation information available when the article is written, but that circumstances do change due to weather conditions, injuries and general craziness with managers. If a pitcher listed here as having two starts ends up with one (or perhaps none) in the upcoming week, apologies but this article is meant to provide analysis, it is up to the manager to set the lineups or rotations.

Without further ado, here are this week’s two-start pitchers:

Richards, in contrast to the pitcher profiled a paragraph above, has two home contests on tap. Given his pitcher-friendly park in Miami, that would seem a positive, but Richards has been about even up at home or traveling this season. He is a good source of whiff numbers, although neither Week Fourteen opponent is swing-happy, both lodged in the bottom third of teams in MLB.

Bassitt has been a much better road option this season, and lo and behold, he has a pair of away games in Week Fourteen, making him an interesting option for fantasy purposes. He is striking out nearly a batter per innings (8.8 K/9 over his 11 starts), although his control could improve (3.9 BB/9 through 64.1 IP this season).

Gibson has been plagued by the long ball in his road starts, so heading to Guaranteed Rate Field at the end of the week is not propitious in that aspect of his game, as the White Sox’ home park is ranked No. 5 in terms of HR rate on the season for all of baseball. He is a good source of Ks, though, and both his Week Fourteen opponents swing and miss a fair amount, so expect his 9.0 K/9 rate to play well this scoring period. Pitching for a division-leading team is in his favor, as well.

Ray faces division opponents in both his upcoming trips to toe the rubber, so there is some impetus to pitch at a high(er) level. He is decidedly a great source of strikeouts, posting a superb 11.7 K/9 rate through 16 starts in 2019. He gets himself in trouble by handing out numerous free passes to opposing hitters, though, with an ugly 4.4 BB/9 rate over his 88.1 IP. The Diamondbacks have played appreciably better on the road this season, and with a road game against the Giants at the end of the week, if you were to have to pick one of Ray’s starts to employ him, that would be the contest to choose. Home on Tuesday evening against the Dodgers, even against an unknown SP at this writing, is much riskier.

Keller had been working on a three-game QS streak, before the Mariners lit him up for seven earned runs in just 4.0 IP in his last outing. Those three prior starts provide some optimism, despite his below-average K rate (6.3 K/9 through 97.0 IP this season). The second start on the road looks like the one to slide him into your rotation, not the first start of the week in Cleveland.

Plutko has seen some success in his limited time in the Cleveland rotation, but his peripherals indicate that he is due for a negative regression in performance: 6.23 FIP (vs. 4.55 ERA, which to be honest, is not exactly mouth-watering), .244 BABIP and 82.5 % strand rate. Week Fourteen provides two good matchups, though, with the Royals coming to town and then heading to Baltimore to face the Orioles. If the coming games were not against second-tier opponents, though, he would dwell in the bottom tier in this two-start week.

Bumgarner is coming off an unexpectedly poor performance against the Dodgers, who he typically handles well. He is pitching well, although he is yielding dingers at an unusual pace (1.49 HR/9 over 96.2 IP), which is aberrant behavior for the Giants’ ace. He has two home games, so that is in his favor in the coming week’s action.

Gray had a recent good outing, albeit against the home-challenged Diamondbacks, following a couple of starts that saw him give up 17 total hits and four earned runs in each of the two games. He is on the road to open Week Fourteen, in San Francisco, then heads home to face off against the Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw . While he is a better pitcher at home this season, the road game has better potential for fantasy results.

Teheran has two road games upcoming on the schedule, and the second opponent, the Mets, just roughed him up for six earned runs on eight hits. He is continuing to struggle with his control this season (4.4 BB/9 over 87.1 IP) although the strikeout production is good (8.1 K.9 through 16 starts). He has some value only if you really need some innings and Ks this week.

Lester has been inconsistent at best over his last several starts, posting an inflated 7.17 ERA and 1.59 WHIP since mid-May over a seven-game stretch. Part of his struggles have to do with him allowing too many fly balls to leave the park, his HR/9 rate over those 37.2 IP sitting at an unacceptable 2.6. Atlanta can deposit their fair share of balls over the wall, and the Reds’ home park is notorious for producing round-trippers, so this is not the best series of games to trust the Cub veteran southpaw.

The final two entries in this middle group, Arrieta and Snell, have fallen out of favor to a huge extent. Moving to Philly has not exactly been a career-boosting move for Arrieta, with a significant uptick in ERA and reduction in K rate making him something less than the ace the Phillies thought they were getting when they signed the former Cub. He has tossed a couple of consecutive QS but the results are too inconsistent to trust. Snell has had a good stretch since coming back from his toe injury in April, but has also had some distinctly poor outings tossed in. His ERA since April 24th is an unattractive 5.51 coupled with an inflated 1.48 WHIP over 50.2 IP. Of these two SPs’ next four appearances, the most intriguing is when the Philly righty heads to Miami at the end of the scoring period.

Feel free also to send any starting pitching or other fantasy baseball questions to ia@fantasyalarm.com for a private response to your specific issue. The more detail you can provide about your team and league, including settings (H2H vs roto, points or categories, weekly or daily moves, roster size, league size, etc.) the better the response will be suited to your individual situation. As ever, good luck and Godspeed in all your fantasy endeavors.