You may have heard the old adage that many batters don’t truly come into their own until their age 27 season. Well, for A’s veteran shortstop Marcus Semien , it took him an extra year to figure things out, put it all together on his way to having a career season. At 28, Semien has already eclipsed his career highs in home runs, with 28 and RBI, with 81. Semien has always been that guy that you were able to pick up late in drafts. His preseason ADP had him being selected in the 19th round of typical 12 team drafts. Typically when you see him sitting there that late in season long drafts you convince yourself to eat the .249 batting average, and use the 20 HR and 10 stolen bases he’ll give you as your middle infielder. Heading into Thursday’s action he was batting .281 overall, and in his last seven games he was batting .464 with an .893 slugging percentage.

The fact that Semien is going to hit the most home runs of his career is no surprise. We’ve talked about the juiced ball being used in big league games this season in this column before. We all either saw or heard about the home run that Jonathan Villar hit on Wednesday night. It was baseball’s 6106th of the season and it broke the record of 6105 set in 2017.

This new live ball era makes us think back to Orioles outfielder Brady Anderson, who is widely recognized as one of the faces of baseball’s steroid era of the 1990’s. He hit 50 home runs in 1996 and only eclipsed 20 home runs two other times in his 15 year career.

Who will be the Brady Anderson of this era? That remains to be seen, but when you take a look at the names of some of the ball players who are among the league leaders in home runs, there are some surprises.

We’ve talked about Diamondbacks 2B/OF Ketel Marte in this column earlier this season. In 2018 Marte hit 14 home runs in 520 ABs. As of Thursday, he had hit 32 in 550 ABs. Keep in mind that Marte had a career .392 minor league slugging percentage.

Pirates first baseman Josh Bell hit 26 home runs in 549 ABs in 2017, but just 12 in 501 ABs last season. He has 37 in 520 ABs in 2019.

Eduardo Escobar hit 21 home runs in 2017, and 23 home runs in 2018. This season, he’s already hit 34.

We credit the live ball with causing the increased numbers of home runs hit over the past few years but of course, there are other forces at play. The above mentioned players all increased their average exit velocity and hard hit rates since last season. Bell and Marte also increased their average launch angle and Brls/PA. Most coaches, trainers and ball players are aware that the use of sabermetrics to adjust a hitters approach at the plate, combined with more and more pitchers throwing heat these days, has helped tilt the scales in favor of hitters. The game of baseball is cyclical. Who knows? Maybe in a few years something will cause pitchers to again have the upper hand vs. batters.

For now, as the baseball season begins to wind down, let’s take a look at some more results from Justin Mason’s “2 Early Mock Drafts” in order to get an idea as to what the 2020 fantasy baseball draft landscape might look like. Specifically, let’s check out the ADPs of the four players previously mentioned in this article.

Marcuse Semien may not be as much of a bargain next season. We mentioned that he was a 19th round pick in 2019 preseason drafts; currently, you’d have to take him in the 10th round.

Ketel Marte was also a 19th round pick in preseason drafts. He’s a fourth round pick in the “2 Early Mock Drafts”.

Josh Bell was an afterthought in 12 team preseason drafts, and a 17th round pick in 15 team drafts. On average he’s been a sixth round pick in the “2 Early Mock Drafts”.

Eduardo Escobar ’s preseason ADP had him being selected in the 15th round of 12 team drafts. His current “2 Early Mock Drafts” ADP has him getting selected in the seventh round.

Some say that chicks dig the long ball, but based on those movements in ADP, apparently fantasy baseball players dig the long ball too.

Taking a deeper look at some pre-2020 ADPs it seems early fantasy baseball drafters might be able to get a deal on players whose seasons ended prematurely due to injury, but who still have a ton of upside.

Braves 3B/OF Austin Riley was the hottest hitter on the planet after his mid-May call-up. Even though his bat eventually and somewhat predictably, cooled off, he still hit 17 home runs in 245 ABs. He’s likely to be multi-position eligible next season. Riley missed about a month of the season and has only recently been activated off of the IL. His current pre-2020 ADP has him being selected in the 15th round of typical 12 team fantasy leagues. That seems like a bargain.

Michael Chavis was widely regarded as a blue chip Red Sox prospect and while he posted a mediocre .254 BA before heading to the IL, he showed some real power. He slammed 18 home runs and drove in 58 runs in 347 ABs. He played a bunch of games at first and second base for the Sox and should have a starting job next season. His current pre-2020 237 ADP means he’s being selected in the 20th round of a 12 round draft. A true case of out of sight, out of mind.

Lastly, let’s check in on two players thought to be among the best at their respective positions, whose ADP has changed based on their 2019 performances.

Manny Machado ’s pending free agent status made him one of the most talked about players in baseball this past preseason. He signed a big contract with the Padres but unfortunately his numbers have been rather pedestrian. He entered Thursdays action batting .259 (20 points lower than his career average) and his current .464 slugging percentage is .074 points lower than last season’s mark. In a season where the balls are flying out of ball parks at a record pace, Machado’s home run production has actually fallen…just like his ADP. Last preseason he was being selected in the second round of typical drafts. His current pre-2020 ADP has him being selected in the fourth round. At that price he could bring back some nice value but you have to wonder if that ADP could fall even further.

Some were touting Trevor Bauer as a Cy Young Award contender, but he started walking batters and giving up home runs and then he got traded to the Reds…and that’s where the wheels really came off of his season. Bauer was a third round pick in preseason drafts. Now, no one will touch him until the seventh round. Can’t blame them!