MLB DFS Playbook & Core Plays October 18: Aaron Judge Faces Aaron Civale
Published: Oct 18, 2022
We have a two-game MLB DFS main slate on Tuesday, October 18th over on DraftKings and FanDuel. We have the ALDS Game 5 game between the New York Yankees and the Cleveland Guardians and we have Game 1 of the NLCS between the San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies. Don't forget to check out the MLB lineups page before locking in MLB daily fantasy lineups. Plus, use the MLB daily projections, our MLB DFS Optimizer, and the rest of our MLB DFS lineup tools before setting your lineups. Now let's look at our MLB DFS top picks.
SP
Yu Darvish - Yu Darvish has looked sharp this postseason, notching wins in each of his outings, putting up 17+ DKP in each outing. He's faced Philly twice this year and has pitched to a 2.08 ERA and has a 14:1 K:BB ratio in 13 IP against them. Darvish is a -118 favorite at home in this spot. He's my SP1 today.
Nestor Cortes - This is a tough spot to be in as Nestor Cortes is starting on just three days rest here. He didn't look great in his first start against Cleveland, but he grinded through five innings allowing just 2 ER. Cortes has made just one career start on three days rest, he couldn't get out of the third inning. Cortes has been dominant at home this year, pitching to a 2.04 ERA and a .169 BAA. Even with his last start, he has pitched to a 2.60 ERA and .167 BAA in three starts vs. CLE.
Zack Wheeler - Over his last five games, Wheeler has been hard to get to. He did lose his last start against the Braves, but he only allowed 3 ER over 6 IP. Only time over his last five games he's allowed more than 1 ER and the one time he faced San Diego he threw seven scoreless innings while striking out nine. Wheeler's been smacked around a little bit on the road this year, notching a 3.61 ERA compared to a 1.85 ERA at home. A little worrisome for sure.
Shane Bieber - Yeah, I know Aaron Civale is starting, but if Civale struggles, the Guardians likely turn to their ace sooner rather than later with their season on the line. This is a GPP play to every degree because we're unsure how much he'll be used on three days rest, but Bieber has been dominant this postseason. Speculative play and it could be very low owned.
C
J.T. Realmuto - Realmuto has been good this postseason, notching hits in four straight game and in 5-of-6 overall. Realmuto homered in his last game and is batting .297 over his last 10 games. He's hitting in the middle of the Phillies lineup and has a .207 ISO and a .343 wOBA vs. RHP.
Austin Nola - Nola has been so good this postseason hitting in 6-of-7 games and over his last 10 games, he has a .355 AVG and .836 OPS as well. Righties on the road have given Zack Wheeler issues allowing a .300 AVG, .460 SLG%, and a .339 wOBA.
Jose Trevino - This is a good spot for the Yankees and although Trevino is struggling offensively, he had a good year offensively. Trevino has a .712 OPS and has hit 7 HR at Yankee Stadium this week.
1B
Anthony Rizzo - Lefty power hitters have given Aaron Civale issues this season and we know Anthony Rizzo has looooved Yankee Stadium. He's one of my locks of the day. He's hit 20 HR and has a .849 OPS at home this year. He has a .235 ISO and a .341 wOBA against righties this year.
Rhys Hoskins - It had been tough sledding for Hoskins until the last two games of the Braves series as he had a three-run home run and a multi-hit game. He's owned Yu Darvish throughout his career, notching a 6-for-16 (.375 AVG) with 1 HR and a .444 wOBA.
Josh Bell - We should see Bell crack the lineup for San Diego here as he has a long history against Zack Wheeler, sporting a 8-for-26 (.308 AVG) and 2 HR & 5 RBI. Bell is hitting .311 with a .338 wOBA vs. RHP this year.
2B
Gleyber Torres - Torres will continue to hit leadoff here, which bodes well considering he'll get as many pitches as he can to hit considering Aaron Judge hits behind him. Torres has a .788 OPS at home this year and belted 17 HR to boot.
Jake Cronenworth - It was a massive series for Cronenworth against the Dodgers, notching at least one hit in all four games, while posting three multi-hit efforts. He has 5 RBI over his last 3 games and has a .320 wOBA vs. RHP this year. I've mentioned it a couple of times, but Zack Wheeler has not been great on the road this year.
Oswaldo Cabrera - It hasn't been a great series for Cabrera, but he did have a breakout game in Game 3 as he doubled and homered, so that's the type of upside he possesses. Cabrera has a .198 ISO vs. RHP this year.
3B
José RamÃrez - Ramirez has hits in all but one postseason game this year and is hitting .412 in this series specific. Ramirez has been better against righties this year, but his .178 ISO isn't bad and we know he has power to put one in the stands.
Manny Machado - Machado had a tremendous NLDS against the Los Angeles Dodgers, slashing .357/.471/.643 with 1 HR and 2 RBI and he had 1 HR and 3 RBI in the first playoff series as well. Machado has a .313 AVG and a .387 wOBA vs. RHP this year.
Gabriel Arias - Just a punt, but Arias has been pretty solid lately hitting in 8-of-11 games, including a two-hit Game 3 for Cleveland. He has the righty-lefty advantage and is sub-3K across the industry.
SS
Amed Rosario - Rosario has had Cortes' number throughout the first six at-bats against one another, going 4-for-6 with 2 HR and a .875 wOBA. Rosario has a .295 AVG and a .358 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season.
Ha-Seong Kim - I've mentioned it a couple of times throughout the write-up, but righties on the road are who have given Zack Wheeler issues. Kim has looked pretty decent at the dish lately, hitting .270 with an .817 OPS over his last 10 games. He has 4 2B, 1 HR, 9 R, and 2 SB over that span.
OF
Aaron Judge - This is a tremendous spot for Aaron Judge as Aaron Civale has not been great this year. He has allowed a .165 ISO to RHH and Judge has a .384 ISO and a .465 wOBA vs. RHP himself. This feels like a spot Judge leaves the yard in. Hard to fade his HR upside on a two-game slate.
Bryce Harper - It's been a great postseason for Bryce Harper as he's homered in two straight games and three times over his last five games. He has four multi-hit games over his last five playoff games with five extra-base hits. Harper has a .249 ISO and a .379 wOBA against RHP this year.
Juan Soto - Some signs of life out of Juan Soto. He's hit in five of his last six playoff games and although he hasn't hit any homers over that span, we know he has as much power as anyone. He has a .249 ISO and a .402 wOBA against right-handed pitching this year, despite his struggles.
Giancarlo Stanton - It's been a tough few games lately, but Giancarlo Stanton has been a postseason monster throughout his entire career. In 22 games, he's hit 10 HR and has a .671 SLG% and a 1.015 OPS. Stanton is 2-for-5 with 1 HR against Aaron Civale throughout his career.
Oscar Gonzalez - The Guardians are getting so much out of Oscar Gonzalez this postseason as he's hit in five of six games. Gonzalez has four RBI this postseason and i shitting .318 over his last 10 games overall. His .745 OPS vs. LHP this year is pretty solid.
Harrison Bader - I could see this being quite a popular play and I can't fault anyone for wanting to considering how much power he's flashed lately. He's homered in two straight games and three of four overall. Bader's not exactly a power hitter, so this feels a bit fluky. It's not a crazy thought to pivot to a low owned Aaron Hicks in his place.
Trent Grisham - Clearly Trent Grisham waited to play his best baseball of the year, notching a .344/.447/.656 over his last 10 games. He's hit 3 HR, 8 R, 5 RBI, and 1 SB over that span. Grisham has a chance to get to Zack Wheeler considering how poor he's been on the road.
Top Stacks
- New York Yankees; Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres, Harrison Bader, Aaron Hicks
- San Diego Padres; Manny Machado, Josh Bell, Ha-Seong Kim, Juan Soto, Trent Grisham
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